中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.11.003

地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1702-1710.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.11.003

中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析

古恒宇^1,², 刘子亮³, 沈体雁¹()

1.北京大学政府管理学院, 北京 100871
2.芝加哥大学空间数据科学中心, 美国伊利诺伊州芝加哥 60637
3.华南师范大学经济与管理学院, 广东广州 510006

收稿日期:2019-01-04 修回日期:2019-03-13 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2020-01-09
通讯作者: 沈体雁 E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
作者简介:古恒宇（1994-）,男,广东河源人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为空间人口学、区域分析与规划。E-mail:henry.gu@pku.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA055);中国科协创新战略研究院项目(CXY-ZKQN-2019-041);中国博士后科学基金项目资助(2018M640115)

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Mechanism of Interprovincial Migration’s Hukou Transfer Intention in China

Gu Hengyu^1,², Liu Ziliang³, Shen Tiyan¹()

1.School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2.Center for Spatial Data Science, University of Chicago, Chicago 60637, IL,USA
3.School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China

Received:2019-01-04 Revised:2019-03-13 Online:2019-11-10 Published:2020-01-09
Contact: Shen Tiyan E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Social Science Foundation of China(17ZDA055);Foundation of National Academy of Innovation Strategy(CXY-ZKQN-2019-041);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2018M640115)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建中国省际流动人口户籍迁移网络,运用探索性空间分析及空间滤波等方法分析该网络的空间格局和驱动力。主要发现：① 户籍迁移意愿网络呈现出集聚的空间格局,排序较高的户籍迁移意愿流主要从欠发达地区指向发达地区。② 户籍吸引力及户籍流出分别呈现出随机及集聚的空间格局,户籍流出热点区为西部及东北地区,冷点区为中东部地区。③ 迁入地人口、FDI、迁入地及迁出地人均GDP、平均工资等因素均显著影响户籍迁移意愿。流动人口个体、家庭因素、住房条件及迁移原因等同样与户籍迁移意愿的关系紧密。

关键词: 省际户籍迁移意愿, 流动人口, 空间滤波引力模型, 中国

Abstract:

Based on data from migration dynamic micro survey 2016, this article first construct the network of interprovincial Hukou transfer intention in China. Then, with the use of some spatial analysis methods, including global Moran’s I coefficient and hot spot, we explore the spatial pattern of such network. Considering network autocorrelation in our data, Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Gravity Model (ESFGM) is applied for analyzing the driving factors. Main results reveal that: 1) The network shows a concentrating spatial pattern, and migrating flows with high ranks are mainly from the undeveloped areas to developed regions. That is to say, the willingness of transferring Hukou differs from regions to regions, showing heterogeneity. 2) Although there exists a random spatial pattern of Hukou attractiveness, such pattern of out-migration is concentrating. Furthermore, provinces in the west and northwest are the hot spot areas of Hukou emigration intention, while the cold spot areas are the mid-east regions in China. 3) From the macro perspective, population of destination shows a negative impact on Hukou transfer intention, while the size of population in an origin is not highly correlated; per capita GDP of both origin and destination, as well as export of foreign-invested firms, influence the intention positively and notably. But among all macro factors, the average wage of employees in urban areas leads to relatively higher impact. 4) From the micro perspective, generally speaking, migrants’ individual and family factors have strong ties with their Hukou transfer intention. A migrant, with higher education level, smaller age and larger scale of family in the destination, tends to transfer his (or her) Hukou to the immigration place. In the meantime, impacts of house condition and migration reason cannot be ignored: a migrant with lower intention of buying a local house or migrating for business, is likely to have a lower intention of transferring Hukou.

Key words: interprovincial Hukou transfer intention, migrants, spatial filtering gravity model, China

中图分类号:

K901.3

古恒宇, 刘子亮, 沈体雁. 中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(11): 1702-1710.

Gu Hengyu, Liu Ziliang, Shen Tiyan. Spatial Pattern and Influencing Mechanism of Interprovincial Migration’s Hukou Transfer Intention in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(11): 1702-1710.

图/表 5

图1

图2

图3

表1

表2

中国省际户籍迁移意愿OLS引力模型、空间滤波引力模型结果"

变量名称	（1）OLS引力模型		（2）空间滤波引力模型
变量名称	系数	P值	系数	P值
迁入地人口	-0.070**	0.047	0.035	0.289
迁出地人口	-0.157**	0.000	-0.139***	0.002
迁入地人均GDP	-0.040	0.639	0.148*	0.064
迁出地人均GDP	0.293***	0.006	0.167*	0.094
迁入地出口	0.046***	0.002	0.063***	0.000
迁入地失业率	-0.288***	0.000	-0.231***	0.001
迁出地工资	-1.016***	0.000	-0.874***	0.000
迁入地工资	0.707***	0.000	0.524***	0.003
迁移距离	0.008	0.790	-0.011	0.722
受教育年限	0.825***	0.000	0.594***	0.003
年龄	-0.048	0.859	-0.670**	0.011
男性占比	-0.133	0.198	-0.131	0.104
同住人数	0.113	0.420	0.283**	0.032
本地购房意愿	0.243***	0.000	0.205***	0.000
平均收入	-0.256**	0.015	-0.114	0.243
经商	-0.057***	0.000	-0.051***	0.000
常数项	1.419	0.621	1.340	0.628
特征向量数	0		19
赤池信息准则	585.901		446.880
贝叶斯信息准则	658.952		601.576
残差莫兰值	0.186***		0.037
样本数量	543		543
$Adj R 2$	0.601		0.701

表2

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变量分类		变量名称	变量解释	预期效应
宏观因素	人口因素	迁入地人口	迁出地年平均人口（万人）	+
	人口因素	迁出地人口	迁入地年平均人口（万人）	+
		迁入地人均GDP	迁出地人均地区生产总值（元/人）	-
	经济因素	迁出地人均GDP	迁入地人均地区生产总值（元/人）	+
		迁入地出口	迁入地外商投资企业出口总额（10³美元）	+
	就业与收入因素	迁入地失业率	迁入地城镇登记失业率（%）	-
		迁出地工资	迁出地城镇单位在岗职工平均工资（元）	-
		迁入地工资	迁入地城镇单位在岗职工平均工资（元）	+
	距离因素	迁移距离	迁出地、迁入地之间最短公路里程（km）	-
微观因素	个体因素	受教育年限	流动人口的平均受教育年限（a）	+
		年龄	流动人口的平均年龄（岁）	-
		男性占比	男性流动人口的占比（%）	-
	家庭因素	同住人数	流动人口在流入地的平均家庭规模（人）	+
	住房及收入因素	本地购房意愿	流动人口在流入地是否具有购房意愿（%）	+
	住房及收入因素	平均收入	流动人口的平均收入水平（元/月）	+
	流动原因	经商	流动人口因经商而流动的占比（%）	-

中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Mechanism of Interprovincial Migration’s Hukou Transfer Intention in China

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