地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1702-1710.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.11.003

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中国省际流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响机制分析

古恒宇1,2, 刘子亮3, 沈体雁1()   

  1. 1.北京大学政府管理学院, 北京 100871
    2.芝加哥大学空间数据科学中心, 美国 伊利诺伊州 芝加哥 60637
    3.华南师范大学经济与管理学院, 广东 广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-04 修回日期:2019-03-13 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2020-01-09
  • 通讯作者: 沈体雁 E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:古恒宇(1994-),男,广东河源人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为空间人口学、区域分析与规划。E-mail:henry.gu@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA055);中国科协创新战略研究院项目(CXY-ZKQN-2019-041);中国博士后科学基金项目资助(2018M640115)

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Mechanism of Interprovincial Migration’s Hukou Transfer Intention in China

Gu Hengyu1,2, Liu Ziliang3, Shen Tiyan1()   

  1. 1.School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2.Center for Spatial Data Science, University of Chicago, Chicago 60637, IL,USA
    3.School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2019-01-04 Revised:2019-03-13 Online:2019-11-10 Published:2020-01-09
  • Contact: Shen Tiyan E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China(17ZDA055);Foundation of National Academy of Innovation Strategy(CXY-ZKQN-2019-041);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2018M640115)

摘要:

构建中国省际流动人口户籍迁移网络,运用探索性空间分析及空间滤波等方法分析该网络的空间格局和驱动力。主要发现:户籍迁移意愿网络呈现出集聚的空间格局,排序较高的户籍迁移意愿流主要从欠发达地区指向发达地区。户籍吸引力及户籍流出分别呈现出随机及集聚的空间格局,户籍流出热点区为西部及东北地区,冷点区为中东部地区。 迁入地人口、FDI、迁入地及迁出地人均GDP、平均工资等因素均显著影响户籍迁移意愿。流动人口个体、家庭因素、住房条件及迁移原因等同样与户籍迁移意愿的关系紧密。

关键词: 省际户籍迁移意愿, 流动人口, 空间滤波引力模型, 中国

Abstract:

Based on data from migration dynamic micro survey 2016, this article first construct the network of interprovincial Hukou transfer intention in China. Then, with the use of some spatial analysis methods, including global Moran’s I coefficient and hot spot, we explore the spatial pattern of such network. Considering network autocorrelation in our data, Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Gravity Model (ESFGM) is applied for analyzing the driving factors. Main results reveal that: 1) The network shows a concentrating spatial pattern, and migrating flows with high ranks are mainly from the undeveloped areas to developed regions. That is to say, the willingness of transferring Hukou differs from regions to regions, showing heterogeneity. 2) Although there exists a random spatial pattern of Hukou attractiveness, such pattern of out-migration is concentrating. Furthermore, provinces in the west and northwest are the hot spot areas of Hukou emigration intention, while the cold spot areas are the mid-east regions in China. 3) From the macro perspective, population of destination shows a negative impact on Hukou transfer intention, while the size of population in an origin is not highly correlated; per capita GDP of both origin and destination, as well as export of foreign-invested firms, influence the intention positively and notably. But among all macro factors, the average wage of employees in urban areas leads to relatively higher impact. 4) From the micro perspective, generally speaking, migrants’ individual and family factors have strong ties with their Hukou transfer intention. A migrant, with higher education level, smaller age and larger scale of family in the destination, tends to transfer his (or her) Hukou to the immigration place. In the meantime, impacts of house condition and migration reason cannot be ignored: a migrant with lower intention of buying a local house or migrating for business, is likely to have a lower intention of transferring Hukou.

Key words: interprovincial Hukou transfer intention, migrants, spatial filtering gravity model, China

中图分类号: 

  • K901.3