北京城区流动人口扩散格局及驱动机制

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.11.006

地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1729-1738.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.11.006

北京城区流动人口扩散格局及驱动机制

赵美风¹, 汪德根²()

1.天津师范大学地理与环境科学学院,天津 300387
2.苏州大学建筑学院,江苏苏州 215123

收稿日期:2018-10-09 修回日期:2019-02-15 出版日期:2019-11-10 发布日期:2020-01-09
通讯作者: 汪德根 E-mail:wdg713@163.com
作者简介:赵美风 (1986-), 女,河北鹿泉人,博士,讲师,主要从事城市地理与人口地理研究。E-mail: zhaomeifeng@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41701151);国家自然科学基金项目(41771125);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41930644);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目资助(17YJCZH256)

The Spatial Sprawl and Driving Mechanism of the Floating Population in Beijing Metropolitan Areas

Zhao Meifeng¹, Wang Dengen²()

1.School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
2.School of Architecture, Soochow University, Suzhou 215123, Jiangsu, China

Received:2018-10-09 Revised:2019-02-15 Online:2019-11-10 Published:2020-01-09
Contact: Wang Dengen E-mail:wdg713@163.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701151);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771125);Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930644);MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences(17YJCZH256)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于街道/乡镇尺度人口普查数据,利用GIS空间分析和数理统计方法,从规模、占比、密度和集聚度等4个层面分析北京城区流动人口扩散特征,并揭示其驱动机制。研究发现, 2000~2010年北京城区流动人口规模和密度增加,但流动人口占常住总人口比重和流动人口空间集聚度下降,流动人口呈现明显的空间扩散态势。北京城区流动人口呈“核-边扩散”格局,城市核心区流动人口规模、密度、占比和空间集聚度不断下降,城市边缘区流动人口规模、密度、占比和空间集聚度逐步上升。北京城区流动人口的“核-边扩散”格局是经济因素的直接推动、城建因素的间接推动、交通因素的硬性诱导、制度因素的软性诱导等共同作用的结果。

关键词: 流动人口, '核-边扩散'格局, 北京城区

Abstract:

Based on the population census data at the subdistrict/town scale, taking Beijing Metropolitan area as the study area, employing the population density model, Getis-Ord G index and spatial econometrics model, this article analyzes the spatial sprawl pattern of the floating population from the four aspects: size, proportion, density and clustering. Then this article explores the driving forces and their influencing mechanism for the spatial sprawl pattern of the floating population. The results show that: firstly, the size and density of the floating population showed a clear growth trend of up to 18% in Beijing Metropolitan Area in 2000-2010; however, the proportion and the clustering degree of the floating populating showed an obviously declining trend. Secondly, the floating population experienced 'core-periphery sprawl' pattern in 2000-2010. The implication is that the floating population was relocating from the urban core areas to the urban periphery areas during the decade. The size, density, proportion and clustering degree of the floating population was continuously declining in the urban core areas; meanwhile, the size, density, proportion and clustering degree of the floating population was increasingly inclining in the urban periphery areas. Thirdly, the result of the spatial ecometrics model shows that the 'core-periphery sprawl' pattern of the floating population was the aggregated outcomes of the economic factor (represented by the housing cost and the employment opportunity), the urban construction factor (represented by the proportion of rural housing land) , the transportation factor (represented by the distance to the nearest subway station and the density of bus stations) and the institutional factor (represented by the percent of the registered agricultural population). The direct driving force was that the housing affordability of the floating population cannot keep up with the pace of the increase of the housing rent. The indirect driving force was the demolition of low-income floating population residing communities including the 'villages in the city' and the squatter settlements. The hard attractiveness force was the huge improvement of the public transportation accessibility in the urban periphery areas. The soft attractiveness force was the special urban-rural dualism in China.

Key words: floating population, 'core-periphery sprawl' pattern, Beijing Metropolitan Area

中图分类号:

K901.3

赵美风, 汪德根. 北京城区流动人口扩散格局及驱动机制[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(11): 1729-1738.

Zhao Meifeng, Wang Dengen. The Spatial Sprawl and Driving Mechanism of the Floating Population in Beijing Metropolitan Areas[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(11): 1729-1738.

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影响因素	具体指标	△lnFP	△PCT	△DEN	△G
影响因素	具体指标	系数 (标准误)	系数 (标准误)	系数 (标准误)	系数 (标准误)
经济因素	房屋价格	-0.009 (0.008)	-0.042 (0.139)	-56.124 (71.742)	-0.015 (0.007)**
	距最近劳动密集型就业中心距离	-0.061 (0.038)*	-0.803 (0.624)	-216.416 (321.553)	-0.012 (0.020)
交通因素	距最近轨道交通站点距离	-0.070 (0.045)*	-2.355 (0.796)***	-382.221 (461.297)	-0.046 (0.025)**
	公交车站密度	0.003 (0.007)	0.064 (0.120)	8.141 (63.638)	0.006 (0.003)*
制度因素	农业人口比例	0.014 (0.007)**	0.834 (0.122)***	138.573 (65.843)***	0.005 (0.004)
城建因素	农村宅基地占比	0.005 (0.003)*	0.087 (0.123)	-11.431 (59.131)	0.001 (0.003)
λ		0.375 (0.117)***	0.510 (0.103)***	0.118 (0.037)**	0.764 (0.047)***
常数		0.658 (0.508)	-23.296 (8.565)***	3142.162 (4348.037)	0.455 (0.417)
R²		0.178	0.442	0.172	0.646
Log likelihood		-171.786	-525.707	-169.289	-107.842
Akaike Info Criterion		357.37	1065.41	268.58	229.69

北京城区流动人口扩散格局及驱动机制

The Spatial Sprawl and Driving Mechanism of the Floating Population in Beijing Metropolitan Areas

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