中国农村人口外流的时空演化及其驱动机制

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.01.007

地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 50-59.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.01.007

中国农村人口外流的时空演化及其驱动机制

郭远智¹, 周扬^1,², 刘彦随^1,²()

^1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101
^2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2019-07-02 修回日期:2019-09-14 出版日期:2020-01-10 发布日期:2020-03-17
通讯作者: 刘彦随 E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:郭远智(1990-),男,江西南康人,博士,助研,主要从事城乡发展与贫困地理学研究。E-mail: guoyz.16b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41931293);国家自然科学基金项目(41871183);国家自然科学基金项目(41601172);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA23070301)

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Rural Population Outflow and Its Mechanism in China

Guo Yuanzhi¹, Zhou Yang^1,², Liu Yansui^1,²()

^1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
^2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2019-07-02 Revised:2019-09-14 Online:2020-01-10 Published:2020-03-17
Contact: Liu Yansui E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41931293);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871183);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601172);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA23070301)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以农村户籍人口和常住人口及两者表征的农村人口外流率为研究对象,利用“五普”和“六普”数据探讨了中国农村人口外流的演化及其空间格局,在预选取影响因素的基础上,基于空间计量模型剖析了县域农村人口外流率的地域分异机制。结果显示：农村人口发展演化可划分为缓慢发展阶段、大量外流阶段、农业转移人口市民化发展阶段3个时期;全国县域农村人口外流率呈现出程度不断加深的态势,农业户籍人口和乡村常住人口的集中度下降明显,并呈现出明显的空间聚类和空间正相关性;平均海拔、人均GDP、城乡居民收入比、第一产业占比、城镇化率、道路密度、受教育水平、人均固定资产投资与农村人口外流率呈现出正相关关系,而人均耕地面积、农民人均纯收入、乡村从业人员占比与农村人口外流率呈现出负相关关系。

关键词: 农村人口外流, 空间误差模型, 城乡关系, 乡村振兴, 乡村可持续发展

Abstract:

Human is the key to social and economic development, and plays a decisive role in rural evolution. However, influenced by urban-rural dual structure, there are large population outflow in rural China, which makes the strategy of rural revitalization lack of human capital support. Therefore, to scientifically promote the implementation of rural revitalization in the new era, it is necessary to study the rural population outflow. Using datasets of 2000 and 2010 population census of the People's Republic of China by county, this research analyzed the evolution and spatial pattern of rural population outflow in China. Then it explored the mechanism of regional differentiation of outflow rate of rural population (ORRP), which was reflected by the ratio of rural hukou-registered population and rural residential population. Results showed that the development of rural population in China from 1978 to present could be divided into three stages i.e., slow development stage (1978-1995), massive outflow stage (1995-2014) and citizenship of agricultural transfer population (since 2014). From 2000 to 2010, ORRP at county level in China generally showed an upward trend, the centralization of rural hukou-registered and residential population declined obviously. From the perspective of spatial pattern, they all showed significant spatial clustering and positive spatial correlation. In 2000, there were 76.06% counties with ORRP ranging from 100% to 150%, and only 14.01% of the counties' ORRP were less than 100%, which were mainly located in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Xinjiang and the border areas of northeast China. By 2010, the proportion of counties with ORRP less than 100% fell to 5.20%, concentrating in Xinjiang, and there were also a few counties in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Northeast China. Based on pre-selected influencing factors, estimated results of spatial error model (SEM) indicated that elevation, per capita GDP, urban-rural income ratio, proportion of primary industry, urbanization rate, road density, educational attainment and per capita investment in fixed assets were positively correlated with ORRP at county level, while per capita farmland, per capita net income of rural households and ratio of rural employees showed a negative correlation.

Key words: rural population outflow, spatial error model (SEM), urban-rural relationship, rural revitalization, rural sustainable development

中图分类号:

F129.9

郭远智, 周扬, 刘彦随. 中国农村人口外流的时空演化及其驱动机制[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(1): 50-59.

Guo Yuanzhi, Zhou Yang, Liu Yansui. Spatial-temporal Evolution of Rural Population Outflow and Its Mechanism in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(1): 50-59.

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人口外流率	类型	人口外流率	类型
0%<ORRP≤50%	净流入Ⅱ型	100%<ORRP≤150%	净流出Ⅰ型
50%<ORRP<100%	净流入Ⅰ型	150%<ORRP≤200%	净流出Ⅱ型
ORRP=100%	流动平衡型	ORRP>200%	净流出Ⅲ型

	指标	2000年	2010年	趋势
农村户籍人口	Gini系数	0.4727	0.4545	集中度下降
农村户籍人口	GMI指数	0.5317	0.5467	空间集聚性增强
农村常住人口	Gini系数	0.5091	0.4678	集中度下降
农村常住人口	GMI指数	0.5295	0.4765	空间集聚性减弱
农村人口外流率	GMI指数	0.0099	0.0223	空间集聚性增强

		2010年
		净流入 Ⅱ型	净流入 Ⅰ型	净流出 Ⅰ型	净流出 Ⅱ型	净流出 Ⅲ型	合计
2000年	净流入Ⅱ型	0	0	1	0	0	1
	净流入Ⅰ型	0	82	232	21	6	341
	净流出Ⅰ型	3	30	1208	560	59	1860
	净流出Ⅱ型	0	7	41	77	37	162
	净流出Ⅲ型	1	5	18	22	31	77
	合计	4	124	1500	680	133	2441

	OLS		SLM		SEM
	系数	P值	系数	P值	系数	P值
常数项	-71.4766	0.1343	-82.4032	0.0841	-101.0520	0.0575
平均海拔	0.0149	0.0050	0.0155	0.0035	0.0163	0.0099
坡度	1.1652	0.0748	1.0481	0.1087	1.1901	0.1195
植被覆盖指数	-54.0576	0.0223	-49.3763	0.0365	-46.0500	0.1012
人均耕地面积	-0.1653	0.0637	-0.1644	0.0638	-0.1947	0.0259
人均GDP	0.0009	0.0000	0.0009	0.0000	0.0010	0.0000
农民人均纯收入	-0.0096	0.0000	-0.0095	0.0000	-0.0079	0.0002
城乡居民收入比	11.6095	0.0039	11.3539	0.0045	8.8423	0.0398
城镇化率	1.1448	0.0000	1.1159	0.0000	0.9850	0.0002
第一产业占比	0.6737	0.0130	0.6716	0.0128	0.6597	0.0252
道路密度	26.3759	0.0000	24.8624	0.0000	25.8743	0.0000
受教育水平	11.5321	0.0050	11.8856	0.0037	12.7946	0.0055
少数民族人口占比	0.0609	0.5694	0.0655	0.5388	0.0646	0.6077
人均固定资产投资	184.5480	0.0000	183.5580	0.0000	186.2280	0.0000
乡村从业人员占比	-9.0067	0.0000	-8.8730	0.0000	-9.9396	0.0000
R²	0.7684		0.7688		0.7768
Log-L	-11821.9		-11820.4		-11798.0
AIC	23673.8		23672.8		23626.0
SC	23757.4		23761.9		23709.6

中国农村人口外流的时空演化及其驱动机制

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Rural Population Outflow and Its Mechanism in China

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