中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.02.002

地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 173-181.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.02.002

中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析

谭俊涛^1,², 赵宏波³, 刘文新⁴, 张平宇⁴, 仇方道^1,²()

^1. 江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院, 江苏徐州 221116
^2. 江苏师范大学城乡融合发展研究院, 江苏徐州 221116
^3. 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心, 河南开封 475001
^4. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所, 吉林长春 130102

收稿日期:2019-02-20 修回日期:2019-05-05 出版日期:2020-02-10 发布日期:2020-04-09
通讯作者: 仇方道 E-mail:qiufangdao@163.com
作者简介:谭俊涛（1988-）,男,山东青岛人,讲师,博士,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail: tanjuntaocf@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41671123);国家自然科学基金(41571152);江苏省高校自然科学基金(19KJB170012);江苏师范大学高校博士科研启动基金(17XLR004);江苏高校哲学社会科学重大项目(2018SJZDA010);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)资助

Regional Economic Resilience and Influential Mechanism During Economic Crises in China

Tan Juntao^1,², Zhao Hongbo³, Liu Wenxin⁴, Zhang Pingyu⁴, Qiu Fangdao^1,²()

^1. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China
^2. Urban-Rural Integration Development Research Institute, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China
^3. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China;
^4. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, Jilin, China

Received:2019-02-20 Revised:2019-05-05 Online:2020-02-10 Published:2020-04-09
Contact: Qiu Fangdao E-mail:qiufangdao@163.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671123);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571152);University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province(19KJB170012);Jiangsu Normal University Foundation(17XLR004);University Philosophy and Social Science Major Project of Jiangsu Province(2018SJZDA010);Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从经济维持性和恢复性2个方面定量化分析中国31省（市）（未包含港澳台数据）应对1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的经济韧性特征,并对其主要影响因素进行了研究。结果发现：① 在亚洲金融危机中,西部地区的经济维持性较高,中部地区的经济维持性普遍较低;经济恢复性较高的省市主要集中在中部地区,而东部和西部地区经济恢复性较低,经济维持性和经济恢复性呈现一定的负相关。② 各省（市）应对全球金融危机的经济维持性普遍较高,经济维持性较低的区域主要分在东部沿海区域和沿长江经济带地区,而经济维持性较高的区域主要集中在西部地区。③ 在亚洲金融危机中,第二产业表现出了较强的经济韧性,而在全球金融危机中第三产业经济韧性较好。④ 影响2次经济危机中韧性能力的主要因素是不同的,区位条件、人均固定资产投资额和人均GDP的解释力较强,但在2次经济周期中的作用方向不同。

关键词: 经济韧性, 区域韧性, 金融危机, 中国

Abstract:

This article quantitatively analyzes the economic resilience of 31 provinces of China in terms of resistance and recoverability during two economic crises: the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, it analyzes the main factors that affected regional resilience. There are three main findings. Firstly, in the first economic cycle, the economic resistance in western region was relatively high, and the central region was low; the provinces with high economic recoverability were mainly concentrated in the central region, while those in the eastern and western regions were lower, with economic resistance and recoverability showing a certain negative correlation. All regions in second economic cycle demonstrated well resistance; those with low economic resistance were mainly located in the eastern coastal areas and along the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Thirdly, the secondary industry was stronger than the tertiary industry in terms of economic resilience during the first economic cycle, while the situation was different in the second economic cycle. Finally, the influential factors affecting economic resilience varied across the two economic cycles; location advantage, per capita fixed asset investment and per capita GDP had strong explanatory power on economic resilience, but the direction of action in the two economic cycles was different.

Key words: economic resilience, regional resilience, economic crisis, China

中图分类号:

K902

谭俊涛, 赵宏波, 刘文新, 张平宇, 仇方道. 中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 173-181.

Tan Juntao, Zhao Hongbo, Liu Wenxin, Zhang Pingyu, Qiu Fangdao. Regional Economic Resilience and Influential Mechanism During Economic Crises in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(2): 173-181.

图/表 4

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	维持性(1995~1999年)		恢复性（1999~ 2007年）		维持性（2007~ 2016年）
	第二产业	第三产业	第二产业	第三产业	第二产业	第三产业
北京	8.5	-4.6	-6.2	-2.2	2.7	1.5
天津	1.3	-5.6	-2.1	-1.5	0.9	4.0
河北	-2.1	-3.1	-3.4	-1.8	-0.2	4.1
山西	0.9	-1.3	0.9	-1.4	-6.6	3.3
内蒙古	2.4	4.1	8.6	-1.2	-9.9	0.9
辽宁	4.6	1.4	4.3	-5.5	-18.4	0.5
吉林	1.2	-1.4	3.7	-0.2	-6.0	0.7
黑龙江	1.0	1.5	-2.5	-2.0	-0.4	2.0
上海	1.8	-3.9	-4.4	-2.8	-1.3	0.8
江苏	2.9	-3.4	-2.7	-0.7	0.1	1.9
浙江	-0.2	-0.4	-2.8	-1.3	-0.8	2.6
安徽	-8.6	1.0	5.8	-5.4	-2.4	7.2
福建	-2.1	-4.9	0.3	-2.7	-3	5.7
江西	-6.5	-1.6	3.7	-6.5	0.2	8.3
山东	2.0	-2.5	-3.3	-1.5	-0.2	2.9
河南	-4.3	-2.4	3.4	-2.1	-1.8	4.5
湖北	-4.7	-1.3	-1.5	0.9	1.7	0.1
湖南	-4.0	-0.8	1.9	-2.8	-2.6	3.9
广东	1.9	0.6	-0.3	-3.1	-1.9	4.1
广西	-2.7	2.1	7.0	-1.8	-4.3	2.3
海南	9.9	2.2	10.9	-0.9	-12.1	5.5
重庆	1.8	-5.5	3.4	-2.6	-0.3	6.9
四川	-4.2	0.6	7.9	-2.9	-2.6	4.0
贵州	0.9	2.8	-2.5	0	6.3	1.7
云南	-0.6	-3.1	1.2	-3.3	2.7	5.2
西藏	29.2	-23.7	-6.9	-1.2	5.2	1.9
陕西	3.6	3.6	-1.0	-3.0	-0.9	3.3
甘肃	2.6	-0.9	0.4	-8.0	-1.0	6.7
青海	3.2	1.2	-1.4	-5.0	2.6	4.6
宁夏	4.7	2.5	-0.5	-6.6	0.8	6.9
新疆	3.0	4.7	-1.5	-3.5	2.5	3.4

	影响因素	维持性(1995~1999年)	恢复性（1999~2007年）	维持性（2007~2016年）
区域发展基础	人均地区生产总值（X₁）	0.162（+）	0.080（-）	0.283（-）
	区位条件（X₂）	0.282（+）	0.189（-）	0.228（-）
	外贸依存度（X₃）	0.164（+）	0.089（-）	0.081（-）
产业结构	国有企业数占比（X₄）	0.003（+）	0.196（-）	0.169（-）
	产业结构多样化指数（X₅）	0.058（+）	0.070（+）	0.035（+）
	研发投入强度（X₆）	0.097（+）	0.054（-）	0.095（-）
劳动力状况	城镇登记失业率（X₇）	0.101（+）	0.110（+）	0.021（-）
劳动力状况	研发人员全时当量（X₈）	0.139（-）	0.014（-）	0.107（-）
金融支持能力	外资利用总额（X₉）	0.082（+）	0.181（-）	0.236（-）
金融支持能力	人均财政支出（X₁₀）	0.041（+）	0.052（-）	0.159（-）
政府管理能力	人均固定资产投资额（X₁₁）	0.238（+）	0.291（-）	0.305（-）
政府管理能力	固定资产投资增长率（X₁₂）	0.053（-）	0.217（+）	0.012（+）

中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析

Regional Economic Resilience and Influential Mechanism During Economic Crises in China

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