基于格网的淘宝村集聚特征及影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.02.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2013~2018年淘宝村数据,从全国层面分析淘宝村发展状况、集聚特征,对淘宝村的影响因素进行探究。结果表明：① 淘宝村在东部地区扩张迅速,中西部和东北地区规模小且发展速度慢。淘宝村在扩张的同时,也开始产生局部淘汰现象。研究期内淘宝村分布的重心和方向发生较大偏移,2015年后淘宝村重心和方向均趋于稳定。② 2015年以前淘宝村分布存在随机性,之后呈现集聚特征,并先后形成了长三角和珠三角2个H-H（高–高）集聚区,淘宝村的高速增长区出现区域固定的倾向。③ 淘宝村空间分布是多种因素综合作用的结果,集聚效应、政府政策、信息通信和人口等是主要的影响因素,GDP与淘宝村发展为负向关系,道路与淘宝村关系不稳健。

关键词: 淘宝村, 集聚, 影响因素, 中国

Abstract:

With the digital economy growing, the Taobao village is playing a more and more significant role in stimulating rural employment and entrepreneurship. Actually, the e-commerce of Taobao villages increase income of farmers, narrow the gap and promote the integration between urban and rural areas. In recent years, the e-commerce is developing rapidly in rural areas in China, and the agglomeration characteristics of e-commerce development of Taobao villages has been observed in rural areas. Rural equipped with internet has opened up a new way to achieve revitalization. Based on the data of Taobao village during 2013-2018, this paper analyzes the development status and agglomeration characteristics of Taobao village, and explores the influencing factors of Taobao village from the national level. Results show that: 1) Taobao village grew rapidly during the study period, spreading from eastern regions to whole of China. There were 3202 Taobao village which was benefited from the development of e-commerce. Taobao villages in the eastern coastal area have expanded rapidly, accounting for 96% of the total in China. The central and western rural areas also began to enter the online business sector. Relatively, development rates of the central and western regions are small and slow. At the same time, Taobao village showed a rapid expansion but also began to eliminate partially. Areas with large eliminations are also in the east, accounting for more than 95% of the total. Before 2015, the center and direction of Taobao village distribution changed greatly. Then, the distribution direction of Taobao village tends to be stable, showing a north-south trend. 2) Before 2015, the distribution of Taobao village was random, and its Moran’ index of Taobao village failed to pass the significance test. With the growth of e-business, Taobao village began to show agglomeration characteristics, and formed two H-H clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. The high-growth area of Taobao village has a tendency to be fixed in the region, located in the east and south of China. 3) Agglomeration effects, government policies, information and communication technologies and population were the main factors, which affected the growth of Taobao village. Conversely, the relationship between GDP and Taobao village was negative. The high GDP area might be not the big number region of Taobao village and the coefficient of the road was not significant.

Key words: Taobao village, aggregation, influencing factor, China

中图分类号:

K902

汪凡, 汪明峰. 基于格网的淘宝村集聚特征及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 229-237.

Wang Fan, Wang Mingfeng. Spatial Aggregation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Taobao Village Based on Grid in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(2): 229-237.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

中国淘宝村空间自相关分析结果

	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年
Moran’s $I$	0.0053	-0.0221	0.0769	0.0804	0.0777	0.0726
Z-score	0.4139	0.0143	3.0771	3.7062	6.7489	7.0371
P-value	0.6788	0.9885	0.0021	0.0002	0.0000	0.0000

表1

图3

表2

表3

中国淘宝村发展的计量分析

变量	非空间模型		空间模型
变量	OLS（1）		SLM（2）	SEM（3）
常数项	-0.0006		-0.0201^**	0.0121
常数项	（-0.0621）		（-2.0148）	（0.8018）
CLUSTER	0.2418^***		0.2129^***	0.2384^***
CLUSTER	（15.6911）		（14.3297）		（14.7828）
lnPOLICY	0.3449^***		0.2916^***	0.3147^***
lnPOLICY	（8.4965）		（7.5582）		（7.9871）
lnICT	0.2279^***		0.2359^***	0.2167^***
lnICT	（4.7691）		(5.2318）		（4.5759）
lnPOP	0.1880^***		0.2436^***	0.2198^***
lnPOP	（2.6778）		（3.6767）		（3.0765）
lnGDP	-0.1829^***		-0.2432^***	-0.2093^***
lnGDP	（-2.9157）		（-4.1040）		（-3.2528）
lnROAD	-0.0455		-0.1137^*	-0.1585^**
lnROAD	（-0.6636）		（-1.7552）		（-2.4161）
l			0.2089^***
l			（10.4531）
r			0.3615^***
r				（8.2873）
R²	0.8155	0.8346	0.8288
Adjusted R²	0.8144
LM		116.9312^***	57.4947^***
$Robust LM$		70.7415^***	11.3051^***
AICc	602.803	496.227	547.251
Sc	637.559	535.948	582.006

表3

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	最小值	最大值	均值	标准偏差	方差	VIF（1）	VIF（2）
CLUSTER	0.003	12.560	1.284	2.271	5.161	1.306	1.290
lnPOLICY	0	4.672	1.382	1.138	1.296	2.446	2.363
lnEXP	0	8.571	5.903	1.338	1.792	13.562	-
lnICT	0	8.383	6.521	1.091	1.191	11.413	4.836
lnPOP	11.962	16.634	15.132	0.793	0.630	4.353	4.351
lnGDP	14.267	19.208	16.872	0.995	0.992	6.270	5.338
lnROAD	0.027	2.211	0.593	0.454	0.207	1.039	1.035