地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 261-269.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.02.011

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东北三省流动人口居留意愿的空间差异及影响因素

古恒宇1,2, 李琦婷3, 沈体雁1()   

  1. 1. 北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871
    2. 芝加哥大学空间数据科学中心, 美国伊利诺伊州 芝加哥60637
    3. 中南财经政法大学经济学院, 湖北 武汉 430073
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-19 修回日期:2019-04-22 出版日期:2020-02-10 发布日期:2020-04-09
  • 通讯作者: 沈体雁 E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:古恒宇(1994-),男,广东河源人,博士研究生,研究方向为区域分析与规划、人口地理学。E-mail: henry.gu@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(17ZDA055);国家自然科学基金项目(71733001);国家留学基金委公派联合培养博士研究生项目(201906010255)

Spatial Difference and Influencing Factors of Floating Population’s Settlement Intention in the Three Provinces of Northeast China

Gu Hengyu1,2, Li Qiting3, Shen Tiyan1()   

  1. 1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Center for Spatial Data Science, University of Chicago,Chicago 60637, IL,USA
    3. Economics School, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, Hubei, China
  • Received:2018-07-19 Revised:2019-04-22 Online:2020-02-10 Published:2020-04-09
  • Contact: Shen Tiyan E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Fundation of China(17ZDA055);National Natural Science Foundation of China(71733001);China Scholarship Council Foundation(201906010255)

摘要:

基于2015年流动人口动态监测数据,综合运用空间自相关分析,趋势面分析等技术,结合二元Logistic回归模型,对东北三省流动人口居留意愿的空间分布和影响因素特征展开研究。主要发现:东北三省流动人口居留意愿呈现出“北高南低,东高西低”的空间格局特征,南北方向上的分异比东西方向大;流动人口居留意愿在空间上属于随机分布,齐齐哈尔市和黑河市位于高-高集聚区,哈尔滨市位于低-高集聚区。随着城市规模的增加,流动人口居留意愿呈现出先升后降的特征;个体因素方面,农业户口流动人口、在婚流动人口、高学历流动人口、“80后”流动人口的居留意愿更强;经济特征方面,收入与住房支出分别对居留意愿产生正向和负向影响;社会因素方面,流入时间越长、职业类别为“专业技术及办事人员”与“商业服务人员”、就业身份为雇主、参加城镇职工医疗保险的流动人口居留意愿更强。

关键词: 流动人口, 居留意愿, 空间分布, 影响因素, 东北三省

Abstract:

In recent years, the three provinces of Northeast China (Liaoning, Heilongjiang, and Jilin) have suffered from economic decline and labor force loss. Supported by the China migrants dynamic survey in 2015, the present study aims to examine the spatial pattern and driving forces of the settlement intention of the floating migrants in the three provinces of Northeast China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and trend analysis methods are applied to characterize the spatial pattern of the settlement intention at the city level, and a binary logistic model is constructed to detect the drivers of the settlement intention at the micro-level. According to the aboveanalyses, the main findings of our research are as follows: 1) The spatial distribution of the settlement intention of the floating population in three northeastern provinces presents a characteristic of “higher in the north and lower in the south”. Besides, the settlement intention has a more significant spatial variation in the north-south direction, yet the spatial variation degree is weaker in the east-west direction. 2) The spatial autocorrelation is insignificant in the spatial pattern of floating migrants’ settlement intention in the three provinces of Northeast China. Qiqihar City and Heihe City are detected as the High-Low cluster areas, while Haerbin City is detected as the High-High cluster area. With the increase in the size of cities, the settlement intention of the floating population shows the trend of first rising and then declining. From the perspective of the city level, the settlement intention of the floating population in sub-provincial cities is higher than that of ordinary prefecture-level cities in the three provinces of Northeast China. 3) Individual, economic, and social factors show significant effects on the settlement intention of floating migrants in the three provinces of Northeast China. In terms of individual factors, the model results indicate that migrants with agricultural hukou, migrants who are married, highly educated migrants, and ‘80s’ migrants have a stronger willingness to stay in destination cities. 4) For economic factors, income level has a significantly positive relationship with the settlement intention of the floating population, while housing expenditure has a negative effect. 5) Considering social factors, the results show that migrants with longer duration of staying, migrants whose occupation categories are professional or technical personnel and business service personnel, migrants whose employment status is the employer, and migrants participating in urban employee medical insurance have a stronger settlement intention.

Key words: floating population, settlement intention, spatial difference, influencing factors, the three provinces of Northeast China

中图分类号: 

  • K901.3