地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 409-418.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.03.009
收稿日期:
2019-05-07
修回日期:
2019-08-12
出版日期:
2020-03-10
发布日期:
2020-05-13
通讯作者:
王士君
E-mail:wangsj@nenu.edu.cn
作者简介:
王彬燕(1991-),女,四川三台人,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域规划研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
Wang Binyan1, Tian Junfeng2, Shi Xiang2, Wang Shijun1()
Received:
2019-05-07
Revised:
2019-08-12
Online:
2020-03-10
Published:
2020-05-13
Contact:
Wang Shijun
E-mail:wangsj@nenu.edu.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
明确贫困成因是提高精准扶贫效率和稳定脱贫成效的基本前提。对偏远少数民族聚居区——吉林省汪清县农村贫困成因进行解析,采用多层线性模型(HLM)同时分析了家庭层次和环境层次因素对农村贫困家庭年纯收入的影响,并利用地理加权回归方法(GWR)探索了环境层次变量影响的空间异质性。研究结果显示: ① 汪清县贫困农户家庭层次因素对家庭年纯收入的影响强于环境层次因素,但环境层次因素的影响作用亦不可忽视; ② 剔除环境层次因素的影响后,绝大多数家庭层次因素对贫困家庭年纯收入存在显著影响; ③ 环境层次因素能够在不同程度上解释家庭层次因素影响效应的差异性; ④ 环境层次因素的影响在不同区域的作用方向和强度上存在显著差异。最后从村域发展环境、医疗就业、区域内部贫困差异方面提出改善建议。
中图分类号:
王彬燕, 田俊峰, 施响, 王士君. 基于HLM和GWR的汪清县农村贫困成因探究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 409-418.
Wang Binyan, Tian Junfeng, Shi Xiang, Wang Shijun. Rural Poverty of Wangqing County Based on HLM and GWR[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(3): 409-418.
表1
变量含义及描述"
自变量 | 变量含义及设置 | 自变量 | 变量含义及设置 |
---|---|---|---|
家庭层次(层次1) | 村级层次(层次2) | ||
性别 | 户主性别(男性=0,女性=1) | 耕地资源 | 人均耕地面积 (hm2) |
年龄 | 户主年龄(岁) | 村庄规模 | 村人口总数(人) |
民族 | 户主民族(汉族=0,非汉族=1) | 常住人口比例 | 常住人口占村人口总数比例(%) |
教育水平 | 户主受教育水平(在读学生=0,文盲=1,小学=2,初 中=3,高中=4,大专及以上=5) | 村庄贫困类别 | 是否为建档立卡贫困村(否=0,是=1) |
患病状态 | 户主患病情况(其它=0,慢性病=1,重病=2) | 到乡镇距离 | 村委会到最近乡镇政府驻地距离(km,为村与 乡镇间的欧式距离) |
残疾状态 | 户主残疾情况(其它=0,残疾=1) | 到县城距离 | 村委会到县政府驻地距离(km,为村委会到乡镇 欧式距离与乡镇政府到县政府路网距离之和) |
劳动能力 | 户主劳动能力状况(无劳动能力=0,正常劳动能力=1) | 平均海拔 | 村平均海拔高度(m) |
家庭规模 | 家庭成员数量(人) | 平均坡度 | 村平均坡度(°) |
家庭抚养比 | 家庭中16岁以下及60岁以上人口数占家庭总人口 比例 (%) | 平均降雨量 | 村平均降雨量(mm) |
教育负担 | 家庭中有无在读学生(无=0,有=1) | 平均气温 | 村平均温度(℃) |
社会救助 | 家庭社会救助状况(一般家庭=0,低保或五保家庭=1) | ||
非农就业 | 家庭中从事非农工作的人数(人) |
表2
HLM模型2结果"
预测变量 | 固定效应 | 随机效应 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | 标准误 | t检验 | 方差成分 | 卡方检验 | ||
截距 | 8.9755 | 0.0166 | 541.938*** | 0.05033 | 3075.5403*** | |
性别 | -0.1275 | 0.0109 | -11.744*** | 0.00556 | 99.7122** | |
年龄 | 0.0012 | 0.0008 | 1.542 | 0.00005 | 217.1907*** | |
民族 | 0.0148 | 0.0170 | 0.872 | 0.01296 | 144.4522*** | |
教育水平 | 0.0132 | 0.0057 | 2.319** | 0.00073 | 72.8866 | |
患病状态 | -0.0561 | 0.0115 | -4.877*** | 0.00421 | 116.2005*** | |
残疾状态 | -0.0076 | 0.0149 | -0.509 | 0.00885 | 114.3329*** | |
劳动能力 | 0.1443 | 0.0165 | 8.759*** | 0.01595 | 122.6625*** | |
家庭规模 | 0.4931 | 0.0113 | 43.794*** | 0.01062 | 189.7033*** | |
家庭抚养比 | -0.0382 | 0.0178 | -2.139** | 0.02112 | 174.4880*** | |
教育负担 | -0.1335 | 0.0195 | -6.894*** | 0.01138 | 85.8081 | |
社会救助 | 0.1464 | 0.0188 | 7.797*** | 0.03909 | 270.3202*** | |
非农工作 | 0.1953 | 0.0226 | 8.659*** | 0.03665 | 181.1987*** |
表3
村级变量对方差成分和比例的解释"
变量 | 原始方差 | 条件方差 | 解释比例(%) |
---|---|---|---|
性别 | 0.00556 | 0.00440 | 20.86 |
年龄 | 0.00005 | 0.00004 | 20.00 |
民族 | 0.01296 | 0.00800 | 38.27 |
教育水平 | 0.00073 | - | - |
患病状态 | 0.00421 | 0.00393 | 6.65 |
残疾状态 | 0.00885 | 0.00717 | 18.98 |
劳动能力 | 0.01595 | 0.01422 | 10.85 |
家庭规模 | 0.01062 | 0.00804 | 24.29 |
家庭抚养比 | 0.02112 | 0.01841 | 12.83 |
教育负担 | 0.01138 | - | - |
社会救助 | 0.03909 | 0.04104 | -4.99 |
非农工作 | 0.03665 | 0.02714 | 25.95 |
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