1960-2017年渭河流域极端气温变化及其对区域增暖的响应

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.03.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于逐日最高和最低气温,计算1960-2017年渭河流域16项极端气温指数,发现近58 a 渭河流域极端冷指数（冰冻日数、霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数和冷持续指数）呈下降趋势,极端暖指数（夏日日数、热夜日数、暖昼日数、暖夜日数、作物生长期和热持续指数）呈上升趋势,特别是20世纪80年代后上升速率明显加快。流域半干旱区对气候变暖的响应更敏感,主要体现在白天温度增高以及冰冻和霜冻日数减少,而半湿润区主要为夜间增暖。相比1960-2003年,2004-2017年流域平均温度升高1.75℃,暖夜/暖昼日数增加10.99/6.79 d,而霜冻/冷夜日数减少8.71/2.35 d。分析发现地形条件是影响流域极端气温空间差异的重要因素。在流域半干旱区,冷夜和冷昼日数的快速减少,有利于农作物的生长。而在相对湿度较大的半湿润区,随着夏季连续高温天气增多,高温热浪事件的危害更大。

关键词: 极端气温, 渭河流域, 气候变化, 区域增暖

Abstract:

Extreme temperature is an important indicator of climate change and an important reference for rational arrangement of agricultural production. Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature of the Weihe River Basin during 1960-2017, and 16 indices of extreme temperature were computed to reveal the trend of extreme temperature in weihe river basin and its response to global warming. This article analyzed the variation trends of extreme temperature and its response on regional warming in different climate zones of basin. The results are as follows: The extreme cold index (ice days, frost days, cool nights, cool days and cold speel duration index) showed a downward trend of the Weihe River Basin during 1960-2017, while the extreme hot index (summer days, tropical nights, warm days, warm nights and warm speel duration index) had an upward trend, especially after the 1980s, the upward trend accelerated. The response of the extreme temperature index on regional warming in semi-arid regions was more sensitive and the response was mainly reflected in the increase of daytime temperature and the significant reduction of freezing and frosting days, while in semi-humid regions, the warming was obvious at night and in the extension of crop growth. Comparing with 1960-2004, the average temperature of basin increased by 1.62℃ during 2005-2017, warm nights and summer days increased by 8.33 and 7.28 days, and ice and frost days decreased by 8.68 and 2.58 days. Topographic condition was the important influencing factor of spatial variations of extreme temperature in this basin. In semi-arid regions of basin, the rapid reduction of ice and frost days are conducive to the growth of crops. However, in the semi-humid area with relatively high humidity, high-temperature heat wave events are more harmful with the increase of continuous hot weather in summer.

Key words: extreme temperature, the Weihe River Basin, climate change, regional warming

中图分类号:

P461

姬霖, 段克勤. 1960-2017年渭河流域极端气温变化及其对区域增暖的响应[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 466-477.

Ji Lin, Duan Keqin. Variations of Extreme Temperature and Its Response on Regional Warming in the Weihe River Basin During 1960-2017[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(3): 466-477.

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分类	缩写(单位)-名称	定义	年代际变化率(/10a)
极端气温暖指数	TXx (℃)-日最高温的极大值	每月日最高气温的最大值	0.003
	TNx (℃)-日最低温的极大值	每月日最低气温的最大值	0.11
	SU25 (d)-夏日日数	日最高气温>25℃的日数	1.91
	TR20 (d)-热夜日数	日最低气温>20℃的日数	0.99
	TN90p (d)-暖夜日数	日最低气温>90%分位值的日数	2.90^*
	TX90p (d)-暖昼日数	日最高温>90%分位值的日数	1.89^*
	GSL (d)-作物生长期	连续6 d>5℃或<5℃的时间跨度	2.05
	WSDI (d)-热持续指数	连续6 d最高温在90%分位值日数	1.65^*
极端气温冷指数	TXn (℃)-日最高温的极小值	每月日最高气温的最小值	0.14
	TNn (℃)-日最低温的极小值	每月日最低气温的最小值	0.15
	ID0 (d)-冰冻日数	一年中日最高温<0℃的日数	-1.05
	FD0 (d)-霜冻日数	一年中日最低温<0℃的日数	-2.41
	TN10p (d)-冷夜日数	日最低气温<10%分位值的日数	-1.21^*
	TX10p (d)-冷昼日数	日最高温<10%分位值的日数	-0.73^*
	CSDI (d)-冷持续指数	连续6 d最低温在10%分位值日数	-0.15^*
	DTR (℃)-气温日较差	日最高气温与最低气温差值	-0.04

月份		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
变化率(℃/10a)	全流域	-0.16	-0.13	0.07	0.19	0.01	-0.28	-0.05	-0.20	-0.09	0.02	0.11	-0.03
	半干旱区	-0.25	-0.22	-0.01	0.07	-0.07	-0.33	-0.11	-0.20	-0.14	-0.03	0.04	-0.13
	半湿润区	-0.08	-0.06	0.13	0.31	0.11	-0.20	0.03	-0.22	-0.05	0.06	0.17	0.08

极端气温暖指数	TXx	TNx	SU25	TR20	TN90p	TX90p	GSL	WSDI
全流域	0.422^**	0.379^**	0.262^**	0.374^*	0.53^**	0.495^**	0.451^**	0.298^*
半干旱区	0.456^**	0.448^**	0.270^*	0.425^**	0.515^**	0.501^**	0.455^**	0.308^*
半湿润区	0.410^**	0.322^**	0.264^*	0.319^*	0.541^**	0.480^**	0.446^**	0.231
极端气温冷指数	TXn	TNn	ID0	FD0	TN10p	TX10p	CSDI	DTR
全流域	0.295^*	0.175	-0.322^*	-0.425^**	-0.142	-0.182	0.119	0.167
半干旱区	0.303^*	0.245	-0.384^**	-0.469^**	-0.166	-0.171	0.206	0.083
半湿润区	0.306^*	0.137	-0.271^*	-0.376^**	-0.104	-0.187	-0.115	0.228

指数(单位)		1960- 2004年	2005- 2017年	变化对事件影响
平均气温（℃)		9.58	11.33	↗1.75(18.27%)
极端气温暖指数	TXx(℃)	34.52	34.86	↗0.34(0.98%）
	TNx(℃)	22.21	22.75	↗0.54(2.43%)
	SU25(d)	93.89	100.30	↗6.41(6.83%）
	TR20(d)	24.52	27.94	↗3.42(13.95%)
	TN90p(d)	10.19	21.18	↗10.99(107.85%）
	TX90p(d)	10.50	17.29	↗6.79(64.67%)
	GSL(d)	242.99	254.39	↗11.40(4.69%）
	WSDI(d)	10.35	14.31	↗3.96(38.26%)
极端气温冷指数	TXn(℃)	-6.62	-6.34	↗0.28(4.23%)
	TNn(℃)	-16.26	-16.05	↗0.21(1.29%）
	ID0(d)	27.26	25.14	↘-2.12(-7.78%)
	FD0(d)	126.86	118.15	↘-8.71(-6.87%）
	TN10p(d)	8.56	6.21	↘-2.35(-27.45%)
	TX10p(d)	8.70	6.80	↘-1.90(-21.84%）
	CSDI(d)	7.68	7.66	↗0.02(0.26%)
	DTR(℃)	10.84	10.82	↘-0.02(-0.18%）

指数(单位)		渭河流域			黄河流域^[33]	长江流域^[17]	珠江流域^[34]	中国^[27]	全球^[30]
		全流域	半干旱区	半湿润区	黄河流域^[33]	长江流域^[17]	珠江流域^[34]	中国^[27]	全球^[30]
		1960-2017年			1963-2013年	1960-2012年	1960-2012年	1961-2008年	1951-2011年
极端气温暖指数	TXx(℃/10a)	0.13	0.18^*	0.06	0.18^*	0.16^*	0.10^*	0.19^*	0.11^*
	TNx(℃/10a）	0.19	0.27^*	0.08	0.25^***	0.19^***	0.16^*	0.25^*	0.12^*
	SU25(d/10a)	2.46^*	2.89^*	1.66^*	2.66^***	2.93^***	1.60^*	2.30^*	0.47^*
	TR20(d/10a）	0.88^*	1.46^*	0.36	1.56^*	1.80^***	2.58^*	1.90^*	0.91^*
	TN90p(d/10a)	2.24^*	2.35^*	2.04^*	2.22^***	2.86^***	1.98^*	2.80^*	1.17^*
	TX90p(d/10a）	1.57^*	1.65^*	1.41^*	1.56^***	2.24^***	1.01^*	1.60^*	0.80^*
	GSL(d/10a)	2.93^*	3.35^*	2.69^*	3.47^***	2.30^**	0.28	2.80^*	1.01^*
	WSDI(d/10a）	1.29^*	1.24^*	1.41^*	1.48^***	0.83^***	1.23^*	2.30^*	1.18^*
极端气温冷指数	TXn(℃/10a)	0.20	0.23	0.22	0.27^*	0.32^**	0.22	0.34^*	0.28^*
	TNn(℃/10a)	0.22	0.31	0.16	0.40^*	0.47^***	0.44^*	0.56^*	0.45^*
	ID0(d/10a)	-1.59^*	-1.85^*	-1.42^*	-2.40^***	-0.48^***	-0.02	-1.70^*	-1.23^*
	FD0(d/10a)	-2.66^*	-3.05^*	-2.59^*	-3.36^***	-3.29^***	-0.68^*	-3.40^*	-1.80^*
	TN10p(d/10a)	-1.62^*	-1.73^*	-1.39^*	-1.93^***	-2.78^***	-1.23^*	-1.70^*	-1.09^*
	TX10p(d/10a)	-1.13^*	-1.16^*	-1.07^*	-0.84^*	-0.84^*	-0.02	-0.80^*	-0.67^*
	CSDI(d/10a)	-0.28	-0.26^*	-0.35^*	-1.12^***	-0.67^**	-0.56^*	-0.40^*	-0.62^*
	DTR(℃/10a)	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.09^*	-0.07^*	-0.11^*	/	-0.09^*