地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 498-508.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.04.001
赵鹏军, 于昭, 贾雨田
收稿日期:
2019-05-09
出版日期:
2020-04-10
发布日期:
2020-06-10
作者简介:
赵鹏军(1975-),男,陕西延安人,研究员,博导,主要从事城乡规划与交通研究。E-mail:pengjun.zhao@pku.edu.cn
基金资助:
Zhao Pengjun, Yu Zhao, Jia Yutian
Received:
2019-05-09
Online:
2020-04-10
Published:
2020-06-10
Supported by:
摘要:
村镇居民出行特征是反映乡村生活质量的关键指标,是乡村地域系统的主要组成要素,也是乡村交通规划的重要依据。采用2016年住建部全国小城镇调查的村镇居民调查数据,分析中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)(未含港澳台地区数据)119个建制镇的村镇居民的跨区域出行规律,揭示村、镇、县、市之间相互联系特征,并应用多水平有序逻辑斯蒂回归模型(Meologit),分析个体社会经济属性、小城镇服务设施供给、区位和对外交通便利性对村镇居民跨区域出行频率的影响。分析结果表明,乡村地区传统地域系统正在发生变化,虽然“村-镇-县”等级结构模式依然是主体,但“村-县”和“镇-市”的联系在增强;对村庄居民来说,县城一级服务地的服务和商品的重要性凸显;乡村居民跨区域出行特征存在地区差异,东部沿海和西部大城市周边的村镇居民的出行频率高于中部地区,平原和丘陵地区居民出行频率高于山地、高原地区,地区间差异随出行目的地等级提高而更加明显;随着“村村通公路”的基本全覆盖,地理区位和交通设施条件不再是影响居民城乡联系的主要因素,居民的高品质生活出行需求、收入增加和小汽车拥有率提升等因素对居民跨区域出行的影响在增强,通过“大修大建”乡村公路来促进城乡联系的传统做法需要进一步深思。
中图分类号:
赵鹏军, 于昭, 贾雨田. 中国村镇居民跨区域出行与乡村地域系统调查研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(4): 498-508.
Zhao Pengjun, Yu Zhao, Jia Yutian. Cross-regional Travel and Regional System of Rural China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(4): 498-508.
表3
接受问卷调查的居民基本情况"
镇区居民 样本数量 (百分比) | 农村居民 样本数量 (百分比) | ||
---|---|---|---|
性别 | 男 | 7810(62.36%) | 2235(75.71%) |
女 | 4714(37.64%) | 717(24.29%) | |
年龄 | >18岁 | 48.71(13.58)* | 50.03(12.18)* |
教育水平 | 小学及以下 | 3318(26.49%) | 891(30.18%) |
初中 | 5026(40.13%) | 1314(44.51%) | |
高中 | 2395(19.12%) | 578(19.58%) | |
大专及以上 | 1785(14.25%) | 169(5.72%) | |
家庭月收入 | 低收入 | 4245(33.89%) | 934(31.64%) |
中等收入 | 6008(47.97%) | 1467(49.70%) | |
高收入 | 2271(18.13%) | 551(18.67%) | |
家庭构成 | 家庭人口规模 | 3.27(1.40)* | — |
有未成年子女 | 5047(40.30%) | — | |
有老人(>60岁) | 7477(59.70%) | — | |
职业类型 | 未就业 | 2553(20.38%) | 286(9.69%) |
务农 | 2907(23.21%) | 1706(57.79%) | |
务工(零工) | 1891(15.10%) | 433(14.67%) | |
经商开店 | 2561(20.45%) | 232(7.86%) | |
正式工作 | 2612(20.86%) | 295(9.99%) | |
交通工具拥有情况 | 小汽车 | 3427(27.36%) | 744(25.20%) |
摩托车 | 4656(37.18%) | 1597(54.10%) | |
农用机动车 | — | 754(25.54%) | |
电动自行车 | 3726(29.75%) | 1207(40.89%) | |
自行车 | 3353(26.77%) | 842(28.52%) |
表5
不同地形地区镇、村居民高频率出行占比"
山地 | 丘陵 | 圩区 | 高原 | 平原 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
镇区居民 | 镇-市高频占比(%) | 10.11 | 9.63 | 5.88 | 8.66 | 12.22 |
镇-县高频占比(%) | 23.95 | 25.21 | 17.29 | 33.10 | 27.37 | |
到地级市距离(km) | 97.03 | 80.83 | 61.23 | 130.58 | 63.35 | |
到县城距离(km) | 34.91 | 23.02 | 30.09 | 49.64 | 26.28 | |
镇内商店数量(个) | 237 | 368 | 384 | 207 | 391 | |
小汽车拥有率(%) | 22.07 | 25.85 | 18.98 | 36.06 | 34.90 | |
农村居民 | 村-县高频占比(%) | 13.22 | 16.61 | 6.83 | 13.64 | 20.05 |
村-镇高频占比(%) | 53.11 | 63.25 | 65.37 | 56.82 | 66.32 | |
到县城距离(km) | 38.39 | 29.11 | 44.05 | 39.74 | 28.24 | |
到镇区距离(km) | 10.23 | 8.08 | 13.24 | 12.41 | 7.06 | |
小汽车拥有率(%) | 17.89 | 25.91 | 17.07 | 28.64 | 34.06 |
表7
镇区居民前往市、县频次影响因素回归结果"
影响因素 | 模型(1)到地级 市的频次 | 模型(2)到县 城的频次 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
回归系数 | 发生比 | 回归系数 | 发生比 | ||
个体属性 | 年龄 | -0.025*** | 0.976 | -0.026*** | 0.974 |
男性 | 0.276*** | 1.318 | 0.236*** | 1.266 | |
职业(参照:无业) | |||||
农民 | -0.064 | 0.938 | -0.096 | 0.908 | |
打零工 | 0.032 | 1.033 | 0.062 | 1.063 | |
小生意 | 0.386*** | 1.470 | 0.382*** | 1.465 | |
正式工作 | 0.286*** | 1.331 | 0.351*** | 1.420 | |
教育水平(参照:小学及以下) | |||||
初中 | 0.326*** | 1.386 | 0.338*** | 1.402 | |
高中 | 0.573*** | 1.774 | 0.626*** | 1.870 | |
大专及以上 | 0.748*** | 2.113 | 0.912*** | 2.488 | |
家庭属性 | 家庭月收入(参照:低收入) | ||||
中等收入 | 0.376*** | 1.456 | 0.421*** | 1.522 | |
高收入 | 0.622*** | 1.863 | 0.770*** | 2.160 | |
家庭规模 | -0.073*** | 0.930 | -0.055** | 0.947 | |
家中有未成年子女 | -0.045 | 0.956 | -0.009 | 0.991 | |
家中有老人(>60岁) | 0.073 | 1.076 | 0.109** | 1.115 | |
交通出行 属性 | 有多种出行需求 | 1.454*** | 4.280 | 0.999*** | 2.716 |
拥有小汽车 | 0.743*** | 2.102 | 0.879*** | 2.407 | |
拥有摩托车 | 0.225*** | 1.253 | 0.211*** | 1.235 | |
拥有电动自行车 | — | — | 0.060 | 1.062 | |
门口有公交站 | 0.210*** | 1.234 | 0.200*** | 1.222 | |
通县班车频率 | -0.006 | 0.994 | 0.001 | 1.001 | |
道路便利度 | -0.197 | 0.821 | -0.045 | 0.956 | |
区位 | 到县城距离 | — | — | -0.016*** | 0.984 |
到地级市距离 | -0.008*** | 0.992 | — | — | |
镇区服务 供给 | 公司数量(参照:少) | ||||
中等 | 0.151 | 1.163 | 0.199 | 1.220 | |
多 | -0.275 | 0.759 | 0.138 | 1.148 | |
商铺数量(参照:少) | |||||
中等 | 0.316 | 1.371 | -0.154 | 0.857 | |
多 | 0.611** | 1.843 | -0.496*** | 0.609 | |
集市频率(参照:低) | |||||
中等 | — | — | -0.197 | 0.821 | |
高 | — | — | -0.292** | 0.747 | |
学校数量(参照:少) | |||||
中等 | -0.667** | 0.513 | -0.515*** | 0.597 | |
多 | -0.807** | 0.446 | -0.291 | 0.748 | |
医疗设施数量(参照:少) | |||||
中等 | -0.330 | 0.719 | -0.204 | 0.815 | |
多 | 0.267 | 1.306 | 0.099 | 1.104 | |
样本量 | 12524 | 12524 | |||
ICC | 0.263 | 0.175 | |||
组间方差消减比例 | 22.16% | 54.92% | |||
LR test vs Meologit | Sig<0.01 | Sig<0.01 |
表8
农村居民前往县、镇频次影响因素回归结果"
影响因素 | 模型(3)到县 城的频次 | 模型(4)到 镇区的频次 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
回归 系数 | 发生 比 | 回归 系数 | 发生 比 | ||
个体属性 | 年龄 | -0.029*** | 0.972 | -0.026*** | 0.975 |
男性 | 0.187** | 1.203 | 0.289*** | 1.334 | |
职业(参照:无业) | |||||
农民 | 0.175 | 1.202 | 0.391*** | 1.479 | |
打零工 | 0.264 | 1.314 | 0.512*** | 1.669 | |
小生意 | 0.701*** | 2.038 | 0.694*** | 2.001 | |
正式工作 | 0.539*** | 1.740 | 0.944*** | 2.569 | |
教育水平(参照:小学及以下) | |||||
初中 | 0.242** | 1.271 | 0.158 | 1.171 | |
高中 | 0.846*** | 2.333 | 0.590*** | 1.803 | |
大专及以上 | 1.030*** | 2.804 | 0.663*** | 1.942 | |
家庭属性 | 家庭月收入(参照:低收入) | ||||
中等收入 | 0.608*** | 1.837 | 0.312*** | 1.366 | |
高收入 | 1.178*** | 3.234 | 0.661*** | 1.937 | |
交通出 行属性 | 有多种出行需求 | 0.638** | 1.896 | 0.697*** | 2.007 |
拥有小汽车 | 1.028*** | 2.786 | 0.672*** | 1.959 | |
拥有摩托车 | 0.186** | 1.204 | 0.371*** | 1.449 | |
拥有农用车 | — | — | -0.121 | 0.886 | |
拥有电动自行车 | 0.088 | 1.089 | 0.405*** | 1.499 | |
拥有自行车 | — | — | -0.017 | 0.983 | |
区位 | 到镇区距离 | — | — | -0.035*** | 0.965 |
到县城距离 | -0.021*** | 0.980 | — | — | |
镇区服务供给 | 公司数量(参照:少) | ||||
中等 | 0.444* | 1.554 | -0.239 | 0.787 | |
多 | 0.123 | 1.129 | -0.125 | 0.883 | |
商铺数量(参照:少) | |||||
中等 | 0.057 | 1.004 | 0.747*** | 2.110 | |
多 | -0.186 | 0.831 | 0.538* | 1.712 | |
集市频率(参照:低) | |||||
中等 | -0.021 | 0.981 | -0.186 | 0.830 | |
高 | -0.084 | 0.921 | 0.021 | 1.021 | |
学校数量(参照:少) | |||||
中等 | -0.597** | 0.550 | -0.360 | 0.697 | |
多 | -0.326 | 0.722 | 0.024 | 1.024 | |
医疗设施数量(参照:少) | |||||
中等 | -0.447* | 0.641 | -0.693*** | 0.500 | |
多 | -0.403 | 0.669 | -0.881*** | 0.414 | |
样本量 | 2952 | 2952 | |||
ICC | 0.252 | 0.224 | |||
组间方差消减比例 | 19.68% | 32.55% | |||
LR test vs Meologit | Sig<0.01 | Sig<0.01 |
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