关键词: 农村贫困, 连片贫困地区, 致贫风险, Logistic回归分析, 海南省

Abstract:

Rural poverty and poverty alleviation are world-wide problems, which are also major livelihood issues that Chinese governments at all levels attach great importance to and focus on. Hainan Province is one of the key areas for poverty alleviation and development in China where has 5 national poverty counties and 6 provincial-level poverty alleviation and development work centers. Different from the deep poverty areas in northwestern and central and western China where have poor living conditions, lack of resources, and frequent natural disasters, Hainan Province is rich in natural resources and good in ecological environment. It is an important producing area for winter vegetable, tropical fruits and tropical economic crops in China. Although the total number of poor people in this region is small, the incidence of poverty is high, and the family characteristics of farmers and the mechanism of poverty show obvious regional differences. Based on the concept of poverty and risk, this study explains the risk and impact factors of farmers' poverty. Furthermore, a binary logistic regression model for farmers' risk analysis of poverty is constructed from 3 dimensions: location, society and labor. Based on the questionnaire survey data of 484 households, this article analyzes the poverty risk of farmers in contiguous poverty-stricken areas in Hainan Province, and proposes effective poverty alleviation and sustainable development strategies in the area. Study found that, primarily, the contiguous poverty-stricken areas in Hainan have such general characteristics of a good ecological environment but a high incidence of poverty, a relatively abundant family labor force but a low level of education, a heavy burden on children's education expenditure, a high proportion of poverty due to illness, a large female working population and the lack of development motivation of farmers themselves to get rid of poverty and get rich. Secondly, households living below 200 m above sea level, having male heads of households, disabilities or sick members, low proportion of migrant workers, high ratio of female migrant workers to total migrant workers, and high student labor ratios are at greater risk of poverty. The study hasn’t found that households with female heads of households, low-educated household heads, minority families, and large-scale families have higher risk of poverty. Factors such as ratio of female member and dependency ratio have less impact on farmers' poverty. It is an important way to achieve the goal of poverty alleviation by stimulating the endogenous motivation of farmers, vigorously developing characteristic and large-scale agriculture, increasing employment opportunities for farmers, and strengthening the social security for migrant workers, female migrant workers and sick and disabled groups.

Key words: rural poverty, contiguous poverty-stricken areas, risk of poverty, logistic regression analysis, Hainan Province