阜新市收缩城市经济系统弹性演变趋势与障碍因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.07.011

地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 1142-1149.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.07.011

阜新市收缩城市经济系统弹性演变趋势与障碍因素分析

董丽晶¹(), 苏飞², 温玉卿¹, 王永超³

1. 辽宁大学哲学与公共管理学院，辽宁沈阳 110136
2. 浙江工商大学旅游与城乡规划学院，浙江杭州 310018
3. 辽宁大学人口研究所，辽宁沈阳 110136

收稿日期:2019-04-26 出版日期:2020-07-10 发布日期:2020-12-07
作者简介:董丽晶（1978−），女，辽宁大连人，教授，博士，主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail： ljdong1978@163.com
基金资助:
辽宁省“兴辽英才计划”项目（XLYC1807249）、辽宁省社科规划基金项目（L18BGL031）、辽宁省教育厅项目（WQN201709）、浙江省高校重大人文社科攻关计划项目（2018QN027）、杭州市哲学社会科学规划课题（Z19JC050）资助

Obstacle Factors and Evolution of Urban Economic Resilience of Fuxin Shrinking City and Its Obstacle Factors

Dong Lijing¹(), Su Fei², Wen Yuqing¹, Wang Yongchao³

1. School of Philosophy and Public Administration, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, Liaoning, China
2. School of Tourism & City Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
3. Institute of Population Research, Liaoning University, Shenyang 110136, Liaoning, China

Received:2019-04-26 Online:2020-07-10 Published:2020-12-07
Supported by:
Liaoning Revitalization Talents Program (XLYC1807249), Social Science Planning Foundation of Liaoning Province (L18BGL031), Foundation of Liaoning Educational Department (WQN201709), Key Humanities and Social Science Program of Higher Education in Zhejiang Province (2018QN027), Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project of Hangzhou City (Z19JC050)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用集对分析和弹性评估相结合的研究方法，以东北收缩城市阜新市为例，分析1997—2016年阜新市城市经济系统弹性变化趋势及障碍因素，并提出相应的对策建议。研究表明：阜新市经济系统弹性指数在1997—2016年总体呈现平稳增长态势，弹性值大体在0.30~0.45区间波动，这说明阜新市经济系统处于中等偏低弹性状态，经济发展整体态势较稳定；同时运用回归分析法研判阜新市经济系统的脆弱性、适应性、恢复性与弹性之间的关系，结果表明恢复性对阜新市经济系统弹性的影响居于主导地位；进一步对城市经济系统恢复性的“障碍度”分析表明，产业结构合理化程度、经济集约化程度及经济外向性是恢复性提升的主要因子。据此建议阜新市通过优化发展能源产业，提升科技创新能力，提高经济外向性，推进节能降耗和循环经济发展，努力促进绿色转型等措施提高经济恢复性，实现不断增强阜新市经济系统弹性能力的目标。

关键词: 经济系统, 弹性评价, 集对分析, 阜新市

Abstract:

Taking a typical shrinking city as an example, this article analyzes the changing trend and obstacles of the resilience of Fuxin’s urban economic system in 1997-2016 based on set pair analysis and resilience assessment. And the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward by combining the aspects of resilience and response capacity. On the whole, the results indicate that resilience shows a growing trend in urban economic system of Fuxin city during the past 20 years, and the resilience fluctuates from 0.30 to 0.45. It presents a state of medium and low resilience, and a generally stable situation. The influence of recoverability on the resilience is significant in urban economic system of Fuxin city among the vulnerability, adaptability, recoverability and resilience by using regression analysis. The results of obstacle analysis indicate that rational structure of production, economic intensification and export-orientated level of economy are the most important factors affecting the regional resilience degree. It is suggested that, to improve response capacity in urban economic system of Fuxin city, we should optimize the development of energy industry, enhance the scientific and technological innovating capacity, improve economic extroversion and develop circular economy, as well as promote energy conservation and consumption reduction to realize green transition.

Key words: economic system, resilience assessment, set pair analysis, Fuxin city

中图分类号:

K902

董丽晶, 苏飞, 温玉卿, 王永超. 阜新市收缩城市经济系统弹性演变趋势与障碍因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(7): 1142-1149.

Dong Lijing, Su Fei, Wen Yuqing, Wang Yongchao. Obstacle Factors and Evolution of Urban Economic Resilience of Fuxin Shrinking City and Its Obstacle Factors[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(7): 1142-1149.

图/表 3

表 1

图 1

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评价目标层	评价因素层	代码	评价指标层	指标性质	指标权重
阜新市经济系统弹性	脆弱性指数	V₁	采掘业从业人员比（%）	负向	0.0678
		V₂	原煤产量（万t）	负向	0.0479
		V₃	城镇居民人均可支配收入增长率（%）	正向	0.0355
		V₄	地方财政收入增长率（%）	正向	0.0383
		V₅	单位工业产值耗电量（万kWh/万元）	负向	0.0668
	适应性指数	A₁	规模以上企业资产利润率（%）	正向	0.0432
		A₂	国有经济增加值比重（%）	负向	0.0588
		A₃	城市建设用地面积（km²）	正向	0.1101
		A₄	城市维护建设资金支出（万元）	正向	0.0674
		A₅	市辖区人均固定资产投资额（万元/人）	正向	0.0729
	恢复性指数	R₁	产业结构多样化指数	正向	0.0346
		R₂	外贸依存度（%）	负向	0.0626
		R₃	工业全员劳动生产率（元/人）	正向	0.0804
		R₄	万元GDP三废排放指数	负向	0.1208
		R₅	人均GDP（万元/人）	正向	0.0930

年份	R₁	R₂	R₃	R₄	R₅	年份	R₁	R₂	R₃	R₄	R₅
1997	0.052					2008	0.054			0.060
1998	0.063	0.068				2009	0.053		0.052	0.065	0.051
1999	0.055	0.067				2010	0.056		0.059	0.070	0.055
2000		0.064		0.065		2011	0.051		0.059		0.065
2001		0.058				2012			0.070		0.070
2002		0.061				2013			0.074	0.051	0.074
2003	0.053	0.057		0.050		2014			0.074		0.072
2004	0.057	0.054		0.060		2015	0.055		0.060	0.060	0.068
2005	0.057	0.057				2016			0.051	0.070	0.060
2006	0.050	0.056	0.050	0.055		出现次数	13	9	9	11	8
2007	0.052			0.055		出现频率	0.650	0.450	0.450	0.550	0.400

阜新市收缩城市经济系统弹性演变趋势与障碍因素分析

Obstacle Factors and Evolution of Urban Economic Resilience of Fuxin Shrinking City and Its Obstacle Factors

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