辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.07.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评价气候变化对玉米生长的影响，以辽宁省为例选取1969—2018年18个气象站点的逐日实测气象数据，利用模糊数学法建立春玉米气候适宜度评估模型，以地理信息技术为依托，探究春玉米气候适宜度的时空特征，并在此基础上进行玉米气候年景的综合评估。结果表明：① 辽宁省春玉米全生育期内日照、温度、降水适宜度波动幅度较大；然而春玉米种植气候适宜度的空间差异性较弱。② 春玉米各生育期气候适宜度由高到低为：出苗期>开花期>成熟期>播种期。全生育期温度适宜度最高，日照适宜度次之，降水适宜度最低。③ 春玉米播种期、出苗期、开花期和成熟期的气候适宜度最高值分别出现在辽阳、葫芦岛、营口和铁岭。④ 春玉米气候年景准确率达64%，表明该评估方法可以较为准确地反映气候年景。近50 a辽宁省春玉米偏好的年景有4个年份（1971、1979、1993、1998年），较差的有1969年（4.98%）及1973年（5.59%）。

关键词: 气候适宜度, 模糊数学, 春玉米, 气候年景评估, 辽宁省

Abstract:

In order to evaluate the impact of climate change on corn growth, this study takes Liaoning Province as an example to select daily meteorological data from 18 meteorological stations from 1969 to 2018, and uses fuzzy mathematics to establish a climate suitability assessment model for spring corn, relying on geographic information technology To explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of climatic suitability for spring corn, and to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the annual climate of corn on this basis. The results showed that: 1) Sunshine, temperature, and precipitation suitability fluctuated greatly during the whole growth period of spring maize in Liaoning Province; however, the spatial differences in the climate suitability of spring maize were weak. 2) The climatic suitability of each growth stage of spring corn from high to low is as follows: emergence period > flowering period > maturity period > sowing period. Temperature suitability was highest during the whole growth period, followed by sunshine suitability, and precipitation suitability was lowest. 3) The highest climatic suitability values for spring corn during the sowing, emergence, flowering and maturity periods occurred in Liaoyang, Huludao, Yingkou and Tieling, respectively. 4) The accuracy rate of the annual climate of spring corn reached 64%, indicating that the assessment method can reflect the annual climate more accurately. In the past 50 years, Liaoning Province has four years of spring corn preference (in 1971, 1979, 1993, 1998), and the worst are 1969 (4.98%) and 1973 (5.59%). The research results can provide an important basis for climate suitability assessment of future crop cultivation.

Key words: climate suitability, fuzzy mathematics, spring corn, climate year assessment, Liaoning Province

中图分类号:

S162.5

曹永强, 齐静威, 王菲, 李玲慧, 路洁. 辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(7): 1210-1220.

Cao Yongqiang, Qi Jingwei, Wang Fei, Li Linghui, Lu Jie. Analysis of Climate Suitability of Spring Maize in Liaoning Province Based on Modulus and Mathematics[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(7): 1210-1220.

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生育期	播种期	出苗期	开花期	成熟期	全生育期
温度	0.155	0.319	0.248	0.279	0.382
日照	0.267	0.261	0.229	0.242	0.349
降水	0.243	0.306	0.254	0.197	0.269

	播种期	出苗期	开花期	成熟期
沈阳	0.346	0.332	0.289	0.329
大连	0.337	0.372^*	0.354	0.347
鞍山	0.325	0.298	0.344	0.348
抚顺	0.252^**	0.335	0.329	0.333
本溪	0.342	0.287	0.365^*	0.312
丹东	0.368^*	0.359	0.332	0.319
锦州	0.291	0.316	0.287	0.329
营口	0.336	0.371^*	0.321	0.289
阜新	0.257^**	0.341	0.298	0.356
辽阳	0.284	0.315	0.329	0.316
盘锦	0.295	0.346	0.319	0.375^*
铁岭	0.333	0.349	0.299	0.317
朝阳	0.298	0.293	0.249^**	0.314
葫芦岛	0.329	0.331	0.337	0.318

等级	百分比
好	P≥90%
较好	70%<P≤90%
一般	30%<P≤70%
较差	10%<P≤30%
差	P<10%