地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (7): 1210-1220.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.07.018
• • 上一篇
收稿日期:
2020-03-03
出版日期:
2020-07-10
发布日期:
2020-12-07
作者简介:
曹永强(1972−),男,内蒙古丰镇人,博导,教授,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
Cao Yongqiang(), Qi Jingwei, Wang Fei, Li Linghui, Lu Jie
Received:
2020-03-03
Online:
2020-07-10
Published:
2020-12-07
Supported by:
摘要:
为评价气候变化对玉米生长的影响,以辽宁省为例选取1969—2018年18个气象站点的逐日实测气象数据,利用模糊数学法建立春玉米气候适宜度评估模型,以地理信息技术为依托,探究春玉米气候适宜度的时空特征,并在此基础上进行玉米气候年景的综合评估。结果表明:① 辽宁省春玉米全生育期内日照、温度、降水适宜度波动幅度较大;然而春玉米种植气候适宜度的空间差异性较弱。② 春玉米各生育期气候适宜度由高到低为:出苗期>开花期>成熟期>播种期。全生育期温度适宜度最高,日照适宜度次之,降水适宜度最低。③ 春玉米播种期、出苗期、开花期和成熟期的气候适宜度最高值分别出现在辽阳、葫芦岛、营口和铁岭。④ 春玉米气候年景准确率达64%,表明该评估方法可以较为准确地反映气候年景。近50 a辽宁省春玉米偏好的年景有4个年份(1971、1979、1993、1998年),较差的有1969年(4.98%)及1973年(5.59%)。
中图分类号:
曹永强, 齐静威, 王菲, 李玲慧, 路洁. 辽宁省春玉米全育期的气候适宜度及年景评估[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(7): 1210-1220.
Cao Yongqiang, Qi Jingwei, Wang Fei, Li Linghui, Lu Jie. Analysis of Climate Suitability of Spring Maize in Liaoning Province Based on Modulus and Mathematics[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(7): 1210-1220.
表 3
1969—2018年辽宁省各地级市春玉米产量与各生育期气候适宜度的相关系数"
播种期 | 出苗期 | 开花期 | 成熟期 | |
沈阳 | 0.346 | 0.332 | 0.289 | 0.329 |
大连 | 0.337 | 0.372* | 0.354 | 0.347 |
鞍山 | 0.325 | 0.298 | 0.344 | 0.348 |
抚顺 | 0.252** | 0.335 | 0.329 | 0.333 |
本溪 | 0.342 | 0.287 | 0.365* | 0.312 |
丹东 | 0.368* | 0.359 | 0.332 | 0.319 |
锦州 | 0.291 | 0.316 | 0.287 | 0.329 |
营口 | 0.336 | 0.371* | 0.321 | 0.289 |
阜新 | 0.257** | 0.341 | 0.298 | 0.356 |
辽阳 | 0.284 | 0.315 | 0.329 | 0.316 |
盘锦 | 0.295 | 0.346 | 0.319 | 0.375* |
铁岭 | 0.333 | 0.349 | 0.299 | 0.317 |
朝阳 | 0.298 | 0.293 | 0.249** | 0.314 |
葫芦岛 | 0.329 | 0.331 | 0.337 | 0.318 |
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