地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (9): 1493-1504.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.09.011
收稿日期:
2019-03-12
出版日期:
2020-09-10
发布日期:
2020-12-05
通讯作者:
杨帆
E-mail:lingeng00@163.com;yangfan25@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:
林耿(1972−),男,广东潮州人,博士,教授,主要从事文化地理学和消费地理学研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
Lin Geng1,2,3(), Xu Xin1, Yang Fan1,3,*(
)
Received:
2019-03-12
Online:
2020-09-10
Published:
2020-12-05
Contact:
Yang Fan
E-mail:lingeng00@163.com;yangfan25@mail.sysu.edu.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
以2008年和2013年佛山市30个专业镇的数据为基础,分析其在经济冲击抵抗期的经济韧性。分析结果显示,佛山市专业镇在经济危机之后整体经济韧性恢复缓慢,专业化和相关多样化产业的发展不再有助于经济韧性的提升,而非相关多样化则相反。传统专业化的集聚优势式微,以低水平劳动密集型产业为主的专业化易于导致经济的脆弱性;相关多样化因技术含量低和协作关系弱的限制也无法发挥作用,虽然地方政府采取积极干预的手段,但效果并不明显;非相关多样化的发展则有利于培育新的产业结构,弥补受危机影响而流失的劳动力,维持地区的经济韧性。与既往研究相比,研究结果同样支持高度专业化区域经济脆弱性更大、稳健性更低的主流观点,但是传统观点一是多侧重于某个视角,并未将专业化与多样化进行对比分析;二是在多样化研究中并不区分相关多样化和非相关多样化的对经济韧性作用。结论认为,在专业镇持续转型的背景下,发展相关多样化产业不利于提高其经济韧性,而非相关多样化产业则是积极有利的,应该予以大力鼓励。专业镇作为珠三角经济发展的成功经验,其传统发展模式正面临着严峻的挑战,应积极探索建立新的多样化发展模式。
中图分类号:
林耿, 徐昕, 杨帆. 佛山市产业专业化、多样化与经济韧性的关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(9): 1493-1504.
Lin Geng, Xu Xin, Yang Fan. Specialization, Variety and Economic Resilience of Specialized Towns in Foshan[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(9): 1493-1504.
表 1
经济韧性指标变量的说明(样本数为60)"
一级指标 | 二级指标 | 变量 | 均值 | 最大值 | 最小值 | 标准差 |
抵抗力指数 | 敏感度 | INDEX | 0.988 | 2.059 | ?0.224 | 0.457 |
产业结构 | 非相关多样化 | UV | 4.139 | 5.596 | 2.310 | 0.699 |
相关多样化 | RV | 1.706 | 2.988 | 0.608 | 0.471 | |
专业化 | SP | 0.709 | 0.981 | 0.345 | 0.128 | |
经济能力 | 人均生产总值/(亿元/万人) | EC | 7.987 | 24.611 | 1.589 | 3.946 |
对外联系 | 外商投资/亿美元 | IN | 0.707 | 3.863 | 0.011 | 0.654 |
劳动力市场 | 就业人口/人 | EM | 11.593 | 42.402 | 1.240 | 9.511 |
中小微企业所占比例 | 300人以下企业所占比例/% | SI | 96.8 | 98.2 | 90.7 | 2.0 |
表 2
OLS回归结果"
变量 | 模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) |
SP | 1.412*** | 0.974*** | |
(8.892) | (9.587) | ||
UV | ?0.264*** | ?0.192*** | |
(?25.941) | (?7.157) | ||
RV | 0.049** | 0.083** | |
(2.054) | (2.205) | ||
IN | 0.398*** | 0.244*** | 0.299*** |
(9.273) | (7.156) | (7.432) | |
EM | ?0.015*** | ?0.016*** | ?0.014*** |
(?5.283) | (?10.241) | (?20.467) | |
EC | ?0.024*** | ?0.002 | ?0.012*** |
(?5.696) | (?0.270) | (?4.135) | |
SI | ?4.323*** | ?2.399*** | ?3.437*** |
(?7.026) | (?6.094) | (?3.825) | |
C | 4.136*** | 4.342*** | 4.268071*** |
(9.642) | (20.491) | (7.082059) | |
R2 | 0.714 | 0.611 | 0.651 |
F | 27.015 | 13.352 | 13.371 |
表 3
佛山市专业镇2008年、2013年的抵抗力指数、专业化和多样化指数"
专业镇 | 抵抗力指数 | 非相关多样化指数 | 专业化指数 | 相关多样化指数 | |||||||
2008年 | 2013年 | 2008年 | 2013年 | 2008年 | 2013年 | 2008年 | 2013年 | ||||
乐平 | 1.617 | 1.148 | 4.216 | 4.416 | 0.874 | 0.764 | 1.869 | 1.573 | |||
芦苞 | 1.013 | 1.014 | 3.821 | 3.921 | 0.928 | 0.642 | 1.566 | 1.566 | |||
大塘 | 1.307 | 1.075 | 3.980 | 3.980 | 0.829 | 0.695 | 1.251 | 1.359 | |||
西南 | 1.040 | 1.297 | 4.969 | 4.989 | 0.551 | 0.453 | 1.672 | 1.744 | |||
白坭 | 1.676 | 1.166 | 2.510 | 2.710 | 0.911 | 0.822 | 0.816 | 0.816 | |||
南山 | 0.860 | 0.610 | 3.671 | 3.910 | 0.901 | 0.832 | 0.787 | 0.802 | |||
荷城 | 1.021 | 1.163 | 4.575 | 4.575 | 0.604 | 0.490 | 1.381 | 1.495 | |||
更合 | 1.098 | 0.167 | 4.089 | 4.089 | 0.766 | 0.660 | 0.731 | 0.931 | |||
明城 | 1.334 | 1.905 | 3.267 | 3.260 | 0.888 | 0.780 | 1.910 | 1.916 | |||
杨和 | 1.412 | ?0.224 | 4.304 | 4.372 | 0.820 | 0.740 | 1.116 | 1.348 | |||
西樵 | 0.794 | 0.050 | 4.010 | 4.316 | 0.730 | 0.571 | 1.548 | 1.781 | |||
丹灶 | 0.681 | 0.876 | 4.280 | 4.187 | 0.774 | 0.661 | 1.857 | 1.804 | |||
狮山 | 1.208 | 2.059 | 4.535 | 4.581 | 0.802 | 0.692 | 2.139 | 2.157 | |||
大沥 | 1.003 | ?0.124 | 4.565 | 4.766 | 0.558 | 0.413 | 1.635 | 1.758 | |||
桂城 | 0.791 | 1.007 | 4.879 | 4.980 | 0.481 | 0.345 | 1.645 | 1.646 | |||
里水 | 1.313 | 0.969 | 4.354 | 4.654 | 0.857 | 0.751 | 2.081 | 2.082 | |||
九江 | 1.049 | 1.040 | 4.441 | 4.492 | 0.728 | 0.612 | 1.540 | 1.492 | |||
张槎 | 1.001 | 1.355 | 4.486 | 4.601 | 0.600 | 0.448 | 1.697 | 1.719 | |||
南庄 | 1.163 | 0.935 | 3.801 | 3.901 | 0.981 | 0.601 | 1.298 | 1.298 | |||
石湾 | 1.058 | 1.024 | 4.960 | 4.961 | 0.734 | 0.644 | 1.603 | 1.619 | |||
祖庙 | 1.002 | 2.045 | 5.063 | 5.059 | 0.764 | 0.733 | 1.771 | 1.770 | |||
大良 | 0.578 | 0.243 | 4.996 | 5.106 | 0.666 | 0.637 | 2.012 | 2.013 | |||
容桂 | 0.749 | 0.316 | 3.770 | 3.770 | 0.679 | 0.606 | 2.521 | 2.521 | |||
伦教 | 0.927 | 0.337 | 4.359 | 4.360 | 0.848 | 0.633 | 1.698 | 1.808 | |||
北滘 | 1.586 | 0.969 | 3.115 | 3.122 | 0.778 | 0.684 | 1.487 | 2.989 | |||
乐从 | 0.578 | 0.694 | 3.450 | 3.732 | 0.769 | 0.678 | 2.130 | 1.920 | |||
勒流 | 0.627 | 1.357 | 3.651 | 3.755 | 0.860 | 0.757 | 2.210 | 1.821 | |||
龙江 | 0.650 | 1.021 | 4.096 | 4.126 | 0.706 | 0.580 | 1.463 | 1.764 | |||
杏坛 | 1.052 | 1.155 | 4.342 | 4.326 | 0.779 | 0.649 | 1.804 | 2.104 | |||
均安 | 0.885 | 1.070 | 3.560 | 3.660 | 0.735 | 0.679 | 0.608 | 0.708 |
表 4
制造业、私人服务业、公共服务业①所占比例及其变化率 "
专业镇 | 私人服务业所占比例/% | 公共服务业所占比例/% | 制造业所占比例/% | ||||||||
2008年 | 2013年 | 变化率 | 2008年 | 2013年 | 变化率 | 2008年 | 2013年 | 变化率 | |||
乐平 | 1.867 | 1.867 | 0 | 4.302 | 4.302 | 0 | 92.178 | 92.178 | 0 | ||
芦苞 | 0.921 | 0.921 | 0 | 8.323 | 8.323 | 0 | 96.414 | 84.053 | ?12.82 | ||
白泥 | 0.813 | 0.813 | 0 | 2.281 | 2.281 | 0 | 94.150 | 94.150 | 0 | ||
荷城 | 8.530 | 8.527 | ?0.03 | 11.587 | 11.590 | 0.02 | 69.190 | 69.190 | 0 | ||
明城 | 1.315 | 1.315 | 0 | 4.544 | 4.544 | 0 | 92.646 | 92.646 | 0 | ||
狮山 | 3.378 | 3.378 | 0 | 5.195 | 5.195 | 0 | 82.660 | 87.986 | 6.44 | ||
里水 | 2.229 | 2.229 | 0 | 3.091 | 3.110 | 0.60 | 91.818 | 91.818 | 0 | ||
张槎 | 11.403 | 11.403 | 0 | 7.949 | 7.949 | 0 | 71.805 | 71.805 | 0 | ||
南庄 | 9.185 | 9.185 | 0 | 8.525 | 8.525 | 0 | 98.755 | 75.267 | ?23.78 | ||
杏坛 | 2.021 | 2.021 | 0 | 7.907 | 7.907 | 0 | 84.666 | 84.666 | 0 | ||
西樵 | 4.850 | 6.081 | 25.37 | 11.706 | 7.979 | ?31.84 | 76.533 | 73.563 | ?3.88 | ||
丹灶 | 3.280 | 4.699 | 43.26 | 4.965 | 6.559 | 32.10 | 86.891 | 86.984 | 0.11 | ||
九江 | 4.478 | 2.752 | ?38.55 | 7.551 | 9.289 | 23.01 | 82.660 | 82.738 | 0.10 | ||
石湾 | 32.221 | 24.114 | ?25.16 | 19.067 | 0.824 | ?95.67 | 31.858 | 32.886 | 3.23 | ||
祖庙 | 30.570 | 30.570 | 0 | 15.996 | 15.996 | 0 | 26.005 | 26.001 | ?0.02 | ||
大良 | 19.719 | 19.744 | 0.13 | 16.987 | 16.981 | ?0.03 | 37.942 | 37.931 | ?0.03 | ||
容桂 | 4.285 | 4.264 | ?0.49 | 3.999 | 3.999 | 0 | 81.723 | 81.723 | 0 | ||
勒流 | 1.211 | 2.162 | 78.47 | 3.434 | 3.434 | 0 | 91.984 | 91.876 | ?0.12 | ||
大沥 | 8.653 | 8.654 | 0.01 | 6.579 | 6.565 | ?0.21 | 71.580 | 71.569 | ?0.02 | ||
西南 | 5.646 | 6.814 | 20.68 | 9.968 | 9.967 | 0 | 67.918 | 94.150 | 38.62 | ||
桂城 | 12.602 | 12.602 | 0 | 13.189 | 13.189 | 0 | 55.254 | 55.254 | 0 | ||
乐从 | 0.035 | 0.038 | 8.66 | 0.045 | 0.046 | 2.42 | 0.834 | 0.827 | ?0.01 | ||
大塘 | 0.018 | 0.018 | 0 | 0.057 | 0.056 | 0 | 0.869 | 0.869 | 0 | ||
北滘 | 0.066 | 0.067 | 1.51 | 0.029 | 0.029 | 0 | 0.836 | 0.836 | 0 | ||
杨和 | 0.017 | 0.017 | 0 | 0.043 | 0.043 | 2.35 | 0.898 | 0.898 | 0 | ||
更合 | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0 | 0.085 | 0.085 | 0 | 0.815 | 0.815 | 0 | ||
伦教 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0 | 0.046 | 0.046 | 0 | 0.967 | 0.855 | ?0.12 | ||
龙江 | 0.052 | 0.052 | 0 | 0.071 | 0.071 | 1.42 | 0.801 | 0.801 | 0 | ||
均安 | 0.036 | 0.036 | 0 | 0.054 | 0.054 | 0 | 0.844 | 0.844 | 0 | ||
南山 | 0.022 | 0.023 | 7.13 | 0.042 | 0.041 | 0.48 | 0.912 | 0.902 | ?0.01 |
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