近邻景区的联动与溢出效应研究——以黄山、西递、宏村为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.03.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

空间邻近性是地理学第一定律，近邻旅游地相互作用定量化研究对丰富旅游地理学理论与实践意义重大。以近邻旅游地黄山、西递和宏村作为案例地，在格兰杰因果分析的基础上，运用当前经济研究中使用极为广泛的DY溢出指数（Diebold & Yilmaz spillover index）分析近邻旅游地的溢出效应。结果表明：宏村和黄山、西递和黄山之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系，而西递和宏村之间仅有单向的因果关系。在溢出效应方面，存在黄山对西递、宏村的溢出正效应和西递对宏村的溢出正效应，与格兰杰因果分析具有一致性。溢出效应的时变特征呈现出更加复杂和丰富的特点。三大景区的溢出溢入均呈现出相互交错、相互补充的局面，没有一个景区出现单纯的全面正效应或负效应；重大事件的交叉溢出分析表明，“替代、互补”等结论不能全面体现和反映近邻旅游地相互作用的复杂动态过程，而是表现出你中有我，我中有你，相互渗透和纠缠的动态变化过程。

关键词: 近邻景区, 溢出效应, 格兰杰因果检验, DY溢出指数

Abstract:

Spatial proximity is considered to be the first law of Geography. However, there are few quantitative studies on the interactions in neighboring destinations. This article, taking the neighboring destinations Huangshan, Xidi and Hongcun as cases, explores the relation by Granger causality test, and analyzes the spillover effects of neighboring destinations using the widely used DY spillover index (Diebold & Yilmaz spillover index) in current economic research. The results are shown as follows: 1) There is a bidirectional Granger causality both between Hongcun, Xidi and Huangshan, and there is only unidirectional Granger causality between Xidi and Hongcun. 2) In terms of spillover effect, there are positive effects of Huangshan’s spillover on Xidi and Hongcun and the positive effect of Xidi’s spillover on Hongcun, which is consistent with Granger causality test. 3) The time-varying characteristics of the spillover effect are more complex and rich. The spillover effects of the 3 destinations show a situation of mutual intertwining and complementing, not any destination has produced positive or negative spillover effect; The cross-spillover analysis of events shows that the conclusions of “replacement and complementarity” cannot reflect the complex dynamic process of the interaction of neighboring destinations which is actually full of mutual penetration and entanglement. This article takes quantitative research on the interaction of neighboring destinations from the spillover perspective, and to some extent compensates for the lack of quantitative measurement of tourism interactions. However, in general, quantitatively empirical research is still weak compared with the qualitative research on the interactions of neighboring destinations, and needs to be further deepened.

Key words: neighboring destinations, spillover effects, Granger causality test, DY spillover index

中图分类号:

余向洋, 张圆刚, 朱国兴, 李德明, 王娟. 近邻景区的联动与溢出效应研究——以黄山、西递、宏村为例[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(3): 513-521.

Yu Xiangyang, Zhang Yuangang, Zhu Guoxing, Li Dengming, Wang Juan. Relation and Spillover Effects of Neighboring Destinations: A Case Study of Huangshan, Xidi and Hongcun[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(3): 513-521.

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变量	t-统计量	检验类型	1%临界值	P值	判断结论
LHS	−1.79979	含常数项	−3.480425	0.3793	非平稳
D（LHS）	−17.575	含常数项	−3.480425	0.0000	平稳
LHC	−1.17728	含常数项	−3.480425	0.6831	非平稳
D（LHC）	−8.09626	含常数项	−3.480818	0.0000	平稳
LXD	−0.52455	含常数项	−3.480425	0.8816	非平稳
D（LXD）	−29.1728	含常数项	−3.480425	0.0001	平稳

协整向量数目	特征值	迹统计量	临界值（5%显著性水平）	P值
不存在*	0.334292	91.29856	35.19275	0
至多1个 *	0.203755	34.73885	20.26184	0.0003
至多2个	0.02183	3.067921	9.164546	0.5681

零假设	最佳滞后阶数	F值	P值
LHC 不是 LHS 格兰杰原因	5	20.8452	3.00E-15
LHS 不是 LHC 格兰杰原因	5	40.4325	9.00E-25
LXD 不是 LHS 格兰杰原因	5	11.0968	7.00E-09
LHS 不是 LXD 格兰杰原因	5	17.9632	2.00E-13
LXD 不是 LHC 格兰杰原因	5	7.49659	3.00E-06
LHC 不是 LXD 格兰杰原因	5	1.97137	0.0872

	LHS	LXD	LHC	FROM	LHS→LXD	LHS→LHC	LXD→LHC
LHS	75.21	13.12	11.67	8.26	16.48	16.45	1.17
LXD	62.55	24.74	12.71	25.09
LHC	61.04	16.21	22.75	25.75
TO	41.20	9.78	8.13	59.10