地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1324-1335.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.08.003
收稿日期:
2020-10-12
出版日期:
2021-08-25
发布日期:
2021-10-11
通讯作者:
王少剑
E-mail:mohb@mail2.sysu.edu.cn;wangshj8@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:
莫惠斌(1997−),男,广东肇庆人,硕士研究生,主要从事城市地理、低碳城镇化与绿色发展研究。E-mail: mohb@mail2. sysu.edu.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2020-10-12
Online:
2021-08-25
Published:
2021-10-11
Contact:
Wang Shaojian
E-mail:mohb@mail2.sysu.edu.cn;wangshj8@mail.sysu.edu.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
利用空间面板模型、空间自相关分析和以区域背景与最近邻状况为空间滞后的空间马尔科夫链对2000—2017年黄河流域县域碳排放时空格局与空间效应进行分析,结果表明:① 2000年以来黄河流域碳排放量激增,由山东全域和陕甘宁蒙交界的高值区向外圈层与轴向扩张,形成东高西低碳排放格局;② 存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,高碳排放县集聚于山东全域和陕甘宁蒙交界,低碳排放县集聚于西南部;2000年与2017年对比发现县域碳排放类型稳定性强,较高碳排放变为较低碳排放的县集中在东南部区域,而相反方向转变的县集中在内蒙古;③ 高碳溢出效应与低碳锁定效应是塑造时空格局的重要作用力,前者作用力更强;区域背景增强了“俱乐部趋同”与被包围异常值趋同,作用力强于最近邻状况,不显著区域内碳排放类型转变概率提高。④ 空间面板模型结果显示年轻人口结构、大经济规模、二产为主产业结构、高生活水平和高公共支出促进了碳排放量增加与空间效应作用,其中经济规模与产业结构是重要驱动因素。
中图分类号:
莫惠斌, 王少剑. 黄河流域县域碳排放的时空格局演变及空间效应机制[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(8): 1324-1335.
Mo Huibin, Wang Shaojian. Spatio-temporal Evolution and Spatial Effect Mechanism of Carbon Emission at County Level in the Yellow River Basin[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(8): 1324-1335.
表 2
区域背景与最近邻状况影响下2000—2017年黄河流域县域碳排放类型转移概率矩阵
区域背景 | t | n | t+1 | 最近邻状况 | t | n | t+1 | |||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||
低低集聚(LLt) | 1 | 2150 | 98.56% | 1.44% | 0% | 0% | 1 | 1 | 399 | 97.74% | 2.26% | 0% | 0% | |
2 | 974 | 2.46% | 95.89% | 1.64% | 0% | 2 | 696 | 1.58% | 96.41% | 2.01% | 0% | |||
3 | 173 | 0% | 10.40% | 89.60% | 0% | 3 | 547 | 0% | 3.29% | 91.41% | 5.30% | |||
4 | 0 | 4 | 541 | 0% | 0% | 6.10% | 93.90% | |||||||
低高集聚(LHt) | 1 | 136 | 92.65% | 7.35% | 0% | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1085 | 97.51% | 2.49% | 0% | 0% | |
2 | 517 | 1.55% | 88.97% | 9.48% | 0% | 2 | 1060 | 2.83% | 92.17% | 4.91% | 0.09% | |||
3 | 390 | 0% | 12.82% | 87.18% | 0% | 3 | 1099 | 0% | 4.09% | 91.72% | 4.19% | |||
4 | 0 | 4 | 821 | 0% | 0.12% | 4.87% | 95.01% | |||||||
高低集聚(HLt) | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 888 | 97.75% | 2.25% | 0% | 0% | |||||
2 | 0 | 2 | 563 | 2.31% | 92.36% | 5.33% | 0% | |||||||
3 | 181 | 0% | 0% | 93.92% | 6.08% | 3 | 657 | 0% | 4.57% | 90.56% | 4.87% | |||
4 | 189 | 0% | 0% | 6.88% | 93.12% | 4 | 612 | 0% | 0% | 4.41% | 95.59% | |||
高高集聚(HHt) | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 705 | 97.87% | 2.13% | 0% | 0% | |||||
2 | 0 | 2 | 741 | 2.29% | 93.79% | 3.91% | 0% | |||||||
3 | 815 | 0% | 0% | 89.57% | 10.43% | 3 | 783 | 0% | 4.09% | 91.19% | 4.73% | |||
4 | 1890 | 0% | 0% | 4.23% | 95.77% | 4 | 1094 | 0% | 0% | 4.02% | 95.98% | |||
不显著 | 1 | 791 | 96.21% | 3.79% | 0% | 0% | ||||||||
2 | 1569 | 2.49% | 93.63% | 3.82% | 0.06% | |||||||||
3 | 1527 | 0% | 3.73% | 93.12% | 3.14% | |||||||||
4 | 989 | 0% | 0.10% | 5.16% | 94.74% |
表 4
共线性检验和空间杜宾模型估计结果
VIF | 主函数 | |||||||
WS(RE) | WE(FE,BOTH) | WM(RE) | WS(RE) | WE(FE,BOTH) | WM(RE) | |||
人口规模POP | 1.403 | −0.065 | −0.313*** | −0.187*** | −0.045 | −0.006 | 0.341*** | |
人口结构PS | 1.188 | 0.673*** | 0.239*** | 0.271*** | −0.716*** | 0.349*** | 0.353*** | |
经济规模GDP | 5.133 | −0.143*** | 0.077** | 0.126*** | 1.779*** | −0.451*** | −0.671*** | |
产业结构SIND | 1.177 | 0.263*** | 0.115*** | 0.066*** | 0.702*** | 0.887*** | 1.410*** | |
生活水平LS | 5.516 | 0.408*** | 0.191*** | 0.290*** | −0.401*** | 0.510*** | 0.435*** | |
公共支出PE | 3.885 | 0.540*** | 0.073** | 0.305*** | −1.671*** | 0.125* | −0.403*** | |
常数项 | −11.598*** | −8.594*** | ||||||
空间滞后系数 | 0.182** | 0.408*** | 0.828*** |
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