高铁对京津冀地区可达性及经济联系的影响

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.09.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

考虑市内交通衔接和乘客出行行为选择，通过加权平均旅行时间、经济潜力和空间自相关分析方法相结合，从不同尺度分析高铁建设对京津冀地区可达性的变化和经济活动空间分布格局的演变。结果表明：① 京津冀地区市域和县域的可达性水平得到明显的改善，形成以京津、京广、京沪方向为轴线向外扩展的不规则环状分布格局，且可达性水平呈现南高、北低的特征。② 高铁对沿线核心城市的经济潜力提升作用明显高于边缘城市，呈现出由中心向外圈层式递减，且以北京为顶点的“倒V”的空间格局。③ 随着可达性时间范围的扩大，京津冀区县的经济活动的空间集聚逐渐弱化，且最优辐射范围在3.5 h以内。

关键词: 高速铁路, 加权平均旅行时间, 经济潜力, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

Considering the urban traffic connection and passenger travels behavior choices, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is used as the research object, and the prefecture-level cities and counties are used as the research unit to estimate the shortest travel time of cities or counties. Through the combination of weighted average travel time, economic potential and spatial autocorrelation methods, the accessibility of each stage of the high-speed rail network expansion in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is measured. Then, it further explores how accessibility changes affect the spatial distribution pattern of economic activities in cities or districts. The results show that: 1) With the gradual increase in cities connected to high-speed rail, the accessibility values ??of cities and counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are significantly reduced, and the level of accessibility has been significantly improved. Spatially, an irregular ring-shaped distribution pattern that expands outward upon the directions of Beijing-Tianjin, Beijing-Guang, and Beijing-Shanghai is formed, and the level of accessibility presents the characteristics of high in the south and low in the north. 2) The economic potential for high-speed rail in the core cities along the line is significantly higher than that in the peripheral cities, forming an ‘inverted V’ spatial pattern of Beijing as the apex and gradually decreasing from the center of the outer circle. The economic potential for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei counties presents a diminishing distribution feature of Beijing and Tianjin as the core areas along the opened high-speed rail lines. The emergence of high-speed rail clearly strengthens the impact on commuting time of economic potential. 3) With the expansion of the time range of accessibility, the spatial agglomeration of economic activities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei districts and counties gradually weakened, and the optimal radiation range was within 3.5 h. The economic activities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are not completely randomly distributed in space, and regions with similar economic development levels tend to be adjacent. Low-low agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated on the northern and southwestern margins of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Key words: high-speed rail, weighted average travel time, economic potential, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

中图分类号:

K902

王慧, 张梅青. 高铁对京津冀地区可达性及经济联系的影响[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(9): 1615-1624.

Wang Hui, Zhang Meiqing. Impact of High-speed Rail on Accessibility and Economic Relations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(9): 1615-1624.

图/表 6

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Table 1

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Table 2

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研究单元	加权平均旅行时间/min			2008—2012年		2012—2017年
研究单元	2008年	2012年	2017年	绝对值/min	年均变化/%	绝对值/min	年均变化/%
北京市	204.43	174.75	166.61	29.67	2.90	8.14	0.78
天津市	224.29	177.93	163.37	46.36	4.13	14.56	1.36
石家庄市	292.38	243.59	224.39	48.78	3.34	19.2	1.31
唐山市	278.03	270.18	213.92	7.85	0.56	56.26	3.47
秦皇岛市	366.22	362.20	251.65	4.02	0.22	110.55	5.09
邯郸市	425.66	338.30	287.13	87.36	4.10	51.16	2.52
邢台市	378.90	309.44	272.55	69.45	3.67	36.89	1.99
保定市	297.94	252.24	218.85	45.70	3.07	33.40	2.21
张家口市	446.19	443.31	440.08	2.88	0.13	3.23	0.12
承德市	545.27	542.25	524.79	3.02	0.11	17.46	0.54
沧州市	327.08	288.21	262.27	38.87	2.38	25.95	1.50
廊坊市	309.18	288.06	259.71	21.12	1.37	28.35	1.64
衡水市	314.59	311.04	250.77	3.55	0.23	60.27	3.23
市域平均	339.24	307.81	272.01	31.44	1.85	35.80	1.94
县域平均	318.43	274.20	247.94	44.23	2.78	26.26	1.60

时间阈值/h	2008年	2012年	2017年
注：^*、^分别表示在1%，5%的置信水平上显著。
1.0	0.414^***	0.390^***	0.448^***
1.5	0.262^***	0.236^***	0.281^***
2.0	0.268^***	0.205^***	0.231^***
2.5	0.184^***	0.099^***	0.108^***
3.0	0.134^***	0.071^***	0.078^***
3.5	0.103^***	0.049^***	0.039^***
4.0	0.063^***	0.019^**	0.004