入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.09.014

地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 1625-1633.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.09.014

入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究

柳林¹^,²(), 陈德宝¹, 徐冲¹^,^*(), 龙冬平¹, 肖露子¹, 陈悉¹

1.广州大学地理科学与遥感学院/广州大学公共安全地理信息分析中心，广东广州 510006
2.辛辛那提大学地理系，美国俄亥俄州辛辛那提市 45221-0131

收稿日期:2020-07-22 修回日期:2020-09-14 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-11-17
通讯作者: 徐冲 E-mail:lin.liu1@yahoo.com;xchong@gzhu.edu.cn
作者简介:柳林（1965-），男，湖南湘潭人，教授，博导，主要从事人文地理信息科学、犯罪时空分析与模拟研究。E-mail： lin.liu1@yahoo.com
基金资助:
广东省自然科学基金研究团队项目(2014A030312010);国家自然科学基金项目(41601138);国家自然科学基金项目(41901172);国家自然科学基金项目(41531178);广州大学研究生“基础创新”项目(2019GDJC-M03)

Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of the Distribution of Near Repeat Cases and Isolate Cases of Burglary

Liu Lin¹^,²(), Chen Debao¹, Xu Chong¹^,^*(), Long Dongping¹, Xiao Luzi¹, Chen Xi¹

1. Center of GeoInformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China
2. Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati OH45221-0131, USA

Received:2020-07-22 Revised:2020-09-14 Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-11-17
Contact: Xu Chong E-mail:lin.liu1@yahoo.com;xchong@gzhu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Research Team Program of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2014A030312010);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601138);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41901172);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41531178);‘Basic Innovation’ Program for Graduate Students of Guangzhou University(2019GDJC-M03)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以中国南方某特大城市YP区为例，结合犯罪地理学主要理论选取相关变量构建二元逻辑回归模型，探讨区域环境对入室盗窃临近重复案件和孤立案件分布的影响差异。研究发现：居民数量、银行&ATM机和公园集聚的区域发生临近重复案件的概率比孤立案件更高，而道路密度高的社区难以发生临近重复案件；青少年人口比重高和低租金住户多的社区会加剧弱势群体、问题人群的集中趋势，临近重复犯罪发生的可能性也会随之上升，其中青少年人口的影响程度高于低租金住户。研究结果可对微观社区层面入室盗窃临近重复犯罪的治安防控与警务政策制定提供一定的参考。

关键词: 入室盗窃, 临近重复, 孤立案件, 社会解组理论, 日常活动理论

Abstract:

Previous studies have shown a significant association between burglary and micro-environment, and burglary usually has a spatiotemporal phenomenon of near repeat occurrence. However, there is no literature on the comparative analysis of spatial influencing factors of the distribution of near repeat cases and non-near repeat cases in China. Combing with social disorganization theory, routine activities theory and crime patterns theory, this study taking YP District of a large city in the southern China as an example, and divides the burglary cases into two types by importing into near repeat caculator, namely, near repeat cases and non-near repeat cases (isolate cases). Using the data of burglary alarm, the sixth census data, and point of interest (POI), a binary logistic regression model was constructed to explore the influence of the micro characteristics of regional environment on the distribution of near repeat and non near repeat cases of burglary. The results show that the higher the spatial-temporal interaction strength between the criminal target and potential criminals, the more significant the pattern of near repeat. More specifically, the probability of near repeat cases in areas with more residents, banks & ATMs and parks is higher than that of isolate cases, while the communities with higher road density are difficult to have near repeat cases. We also find that the communities with higher proportion of youth population and more low-rent households will aggravate the concentration trend of vulnerable people and problem people, and the possibility of near repeat crimes will increase. The impact of the proportion of youth population is higher than that of low rent households. These findings can provide certain reference for the public security prevention & control and police policy making of burglary near repeat crime at the micro community level.

Key words: burglary, near repeat, isolate cases, social disorganization theory, routine activities theory

中图分类号:

K901.2/DF792.6

柳林, 陈德宝, 徐冲, 龙冬平, 肖露子, 陈悉. 入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(9): 1625-1633.

Liu Lin, Chen Debao, Xu Chong, Long Dongping, Xiao Luzi, Chen Xi. Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of the Distribution of Near Repeat Cases and Isolate Cases of Burglary[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(9): 1625-1633.

图/表 5

图1

Table 1

图2

Table 2

Table 3

参考文献 34

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空间距离/m	时间距离/d
空间距离/m	0~4	5~8	9~12	13~16	17~20	21~24
注：^*、^分别表示P < 0.001、 P < 0.01。
0~100	1.40^***	1.23^***	1.08^**	1.04	1.07	1.08
101~200	1.20^***	1.05	1.11^**	1.02	1.03	1.00
201~300	1.18^***	1.05	1.06^**	1.04	1.08^**	1.04
301~400	1.12^***	1.08^**	1.07^**	1.03	1.02	1.07^**
401~500	1.10^**	1.07^**	1.12^***	1.08^**	1.06^**	1.03
501~600	1.01	1.03	1.00	1.08^**	0.97	1.00
601~700	1.03	1.01	1.02	1.01	0.99	0.99

	入室盗窃案件				类别
	临近重复案件数（占比/%）		孤立案件数（占比/%）
	2409（26.10）		6833（73.90）
	POI=1	POI=0	POI=1	POI=0
银行&ATM机	1793	616	4359	2474	犯罪发生器/受害目标
休娱场所	1217	1192	2958	3875	犯罪发生器/受害目标
公园	374	2035	899	5934	犯罪发生器/受害目标
酒吧	221	2188	696	6137	犯罪发生器/受害目标
	平均值（标准偏差）	最小值（最大值）	平均值（标准偏差）	最小值（最大值）	类别
居民数量/个	894.65（211.92）	121.56（1380.89）	832.37（234.82）	88.46（1434.45）	受害目标
道路密度/(km/km²)	8.29（4.56）	0.62（30.93）	8.63（5.28）	0.20（30.93）	社区可达性
外来人口比重/%	0.57（0.19）	0.05（0.85）	0.55（0.19）	0（0.96）	人口流动性与种族异质性
青少年人口比重/%	0.32（0.12）	0.17（0.90）	0.31（0.13）	0.11（0.90）	集中缺陷
低租金住户/个	122.84（133.31）	0（400）	92.54（111.75）	0（400）	集中缺陷

自变量	β	P	exp(β)	类别
注：^***为P <0.001； β为回归模型系数；exp(β)为比值比。
居民数量	0.001^***	0.000	1.001	受害目标
银行&ATM	0.353^***	0.000	1.423	犯罪发生器/受害目标
公园	0.256^***	0.000	1.291	犯罪发生器/受害目标
休娱场所	0.062	0.275	1.064	犯罪发生器/受害目标
酒吧	0.052	0.513	1.054	犯罪发生器/受害目标
道路密度	-0.038^***	0.000	0.962	社区可达性
外来人口比重	0.209	0.208	1.232	人口流动性与种族异质性
青少年人口比重	0.801^***	0.000	2.227	集中缺陷
低租金住户	0.001^***	0.000	1.001	集中缺陷
常量	-2.764^***	0.000	0.063

入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究

Comparative Study on the Influencing Factors of the Distribution of Near Repeat Cases and Isolate Cases of Burglary

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[1]	肖露子, 柳林, 周素红, 宋广文, 张春霞, 陈建国. ZG市工作日地铁站点扒窃案件的时空分布及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(8): 1227-1234.
[2]	柳林, 宋广文, 肖露子, 周素红, 宋广钦, 龙冬平. 不同犯罪类型受害者报警行为特点及其影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(12): 1998-2005.