1960—2018年中国西南地区旱涝急转的时空变化特征

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.12.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于 1960—2018 年的逐日降水观测数据，采用日尺度旱涝急转指数（DWAAI）计算方法，以生态地理区为框架，识别并分析了西南地区旱涝急转事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：西南地区旱涝急转事件的发生次数在 1960—2010年有增加趋势，在 2011—2018 年快速减少；旱转涝事件多发生在春夏季（4~8 月），涝转旱事件则跨越了春、夏、秋季（5~11 月）；在云南高原常绿阔叶林、松林区（VA5），西双版纳山地季雨林、雨林区（VIIA3），闽粤桂低山平原常绿阔叶林、人工植被区（VIA2），旱涝急转事件主要发生在夏季，而在湘黔高原山地常绿阔叶林区（VA3）和四川盆地常绿阔叶林、人工植被区（VA4），旱涝急转事件主要发生在春季；旱涝急转事件发生次数的空间分布呈现东北多、西南少的格局；2000 年以来旱涝急转事件在滇中南亚高山谷地常绿阔叶林、松林区（VIA3）和闽粤桂低山平原常绿阔叶林、人工植被区（VIA2）发生次数减少，但有加重趋势，呈现极端化特征。

关键词: 旱涝急转指数, 旱涝急转, 西南地区

Abstract:

With the warming climate and enhancing human activities, the frequency and intensity of dry-wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events have been increasing, largely affected on natural environment and social-economy development. Using observed daily precipitation from 1960 to 2018, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of DWAA events in Southwest China by calculating Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation Index (DWAAI) based on eco-geographical regions. The DWAA events in Southwest China exhibited an increasing trend before 2010 and decreased after 2011. The dry-to-wet events mainly concentrated in spring and summer (April to August). Meanwhile, the wet-to-dry events were primarily found in spring, summer and autumn (May to November). At seasonal scale, DWAA events mainly occurred in summer, distributed in the area of Yunnan Plateau evergreen broadleaved forest and pine forest region (VA5), Xishuangbanna mountains seasonal rainforest and rainforest region (VIIA3), and Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi low mountain and plain evergreen broadleaved forest and cultivated vegetation region (VIA2). In the area of Hunan and Guizhou mountains evergreen broadleaved forest region (VA3), and Sichuan Basin evergreen broadleaved forest and cultivated vegetation region (VA4), the DWAA events were examined in spring. Spatially, majority of DWAA events existed in the northeast of Southwest China, and the less were found in the southwest. Although frequency of DWAA events declined since 2000, the intensity of DWAA was obviously enhanced, especially in Xishuangbanna mountains seasonal rainforest and rainforest region (VIIA3), and Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi low mountain and plain evergreen broadleaved forest and cultivated vegetation region (VIA2).

Key words: Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation Index (DWAAI), dry-wet abrupt alternation, Southwest China

中图分类号:

P467

赵东升, 张家诚, 邓思琪, 郭彩贇. 1960—2018年中国西南地区旱涝急转的时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(12): 2222-2231.

Zhao Dongsheng, Zhang Jiacheng, Deng Siqi, Guo Caiyun. Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Drought-flood Abrupt Alternation in the Southwest China from 1960 to 2018[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(12): 2222-2231.

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序号	$ SPA $		后期与前期的差值	$ Turn $
序号	前期	后期	后期与前期的差值	$ \alpha\text{=0.8} $	$ \alpha\text{=0.9} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{1} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{1.1} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{1.2} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{1.4} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{1.5} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{1.6} $	$ \alpha\text{=}\text{3} $
1	0.10	5.00	4.90	77.98	42.77	24.99	15.37	9.86	4.49	3.16	2.27	0.09
2	0.50	8.00	7.50	424.83	156.11	63.75	28.35	13.53	3.65	2.03	1.17	0.01
3	−0.50	0.50	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
4	−0.50	2.50	3.00	14.06	11.11	9.00	7.44	6.25	4.59	4.00	3.52	1.00
5	−1.00	2.00	3.00	11.25	10.00	9.00	8.18	7.50	6.43	6.00	5.63	3.00
6	−1.50	1.50	3.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00	9.00
7	−2.00	1.00	3.00	11.25	10.00	9.00	8.18	7.50	6.43	6.00	5.63	3.00
8	−2.00	2.00	4.00	16.00	16.00	16.00	16.00	16.00	16.00	16.00	16.00	16.00
9	−2.00	10.00	12.00	858.31	334.52	144.00	67.18	33.49	9.76	5.62	3.35	0.02

类型	等级	DWAAI取值范围	理论概率/%
注：DWAAI为旱涝急转指数。
旱转涝	重	[18, +∞)	0.05
	中	[12, 18)	0.09
	轻	(−∞, 12)	0.86
涝转旱	轻	(−12, +∞)	0.84
	中	(−18, −12]	0.10
	重	(−∞, −18]	0.06