地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 1879-1888.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.11.003
收稿日期:
2021-10-21
修回日期:
2022-03-23
接受日期:
2022-07-15
发布日期:
2022-11-20
出版日期:
2022-11-30
作者简介:
李南(1978-),男,河北乐亭人,教授,博士,主要研究方向为港口经济地理。E-mail: 81723572@qq.com
Received:
2021-10-21
Revised:
2022-03-23
Accepted:
2022-07-15
Online:
2022-11-20
Published:
2022-11-30
摘要:
在探讨城市发展是否可能与港口运营脱钩的理论探索的基础上,采用Tapio脱钩模型进行估测,构建了包括产业多样化指标的港口及城市评价体系,以2000—2019年环渤海地区12个主要港口城市为样本,实证检验港城脱钩类型。研究发现:尽管大部分港口城市的脱钩状态时常变化,但港城脱钩确实可能成为港口城市的演化路径,其过程是渐进的。港城脱钩的影响因素主要有城市发展阶段、产业多样化等,港口运营与本地经济一直未能深入融合的城市以及经济实力雄厚、发展路径多样的中心城市实现港城脱钩的难度相对较小。在环渤海案例区,丹东和秦皇岛已处于港城脱钩状态,天津和青岛未来出现港城脱钩的潜力较大,大连的港城关系演化尚不稳定,唐山、营口、日照等多数样本的港城关联仍然密切、脱钩可能性较小。
中图分类号:
李南, 刘恩梅. 港城脱钩的可能性机理与实际估测————以环渤海港口城市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(11): 1879-1888.
Li Nan, Liu Enmei. The Possibility Mechanism and Actual Estimation of Decoupling Between Port and City: Taking Port Cities of Bohai Rim as an Example[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(11): 1879-1888.
表1
Tapio弹性系数法在港城脱钩情境下的状态分类
状态类型 | 状态名称 | 脱钩内涵 | 港口运营 | 城市发展 | 脱钩弹性系数 | 脱钩值得分 |
脱钩 | 绝对脱钩 | 城市发展基本摆脱对港口依赖 | 下降 | 增长 | t<0 | 8 |
相对脱钩 | 港口增长的幅度小于城市增长 | 增长 | 增长 | 0≤t<0.8 | 7 | |
衰退脱钩 | 港口衰退的幅度大于城市衰退 | 下降 | 下降 | t>1.2 | 6 | |
连接 | 增长连接 | 港口和城市基本保持同步增长 | 增长 | 增长 | 0.8≤t≤1.2 | 5 |
衰退连接 | 港口和城市基本保持同步衰退 | 下降 | 下降 | 0.8≤t≤1.2 | 4 | |
负脱钩 | 扩张负脱钩 | 港口增长的幅度大于城市增长 | 增长 | 增长 | t>1.2 | 3 |
弱负脱钩 | 港口衰退的幅度小于城市衰退 | 下降 | 下降 | 0≤t<0.8 | 2 | |
强负脱钩 | 城市对港口依赖更加趋于强化 | 增长 | 下降 | t<0 | 1 |
表3
环渤海港口城市脱钩弹性系数(t)及脱钩状态分布
港口城市 | 2000—2004年 | 2005—2009年 | 2010—2014年 | 2015—2019年 |
丹东 | 65.13(扩张负脱钩) | 1.09(增长连接) | 2.15(扩张负脱钩) | –2.44(绝对脱钩) |
大连 | 1.59(扩张负脱钩) | 0.35(相对脱钩) | 0.65(相对脱钩) | –0.83(强负脱钩) |
营口 | 1.38(扩张负脱钩) | 0.90(增长连接) | 0.95(增长连接) | 0.86(增长连接) |
锦州 | –2.35(强负脱钩) | 1.52(扩张负脱钩) | 0.56(相对脱钩) | 3.04(扩张负脱钩) |
秦皇岛 | 2.53(扩张负脱钩) | 0.67(相对脱钩) | 0.64(相对脱钩) | –0.16(绝对脱钩) |
唐山 | 4.81(扩张负脱钩) | 3.01(扩张负脱钩) | 1.91(扩张负脱钩) | 1.19(增长连接) |
天津 | 1.72(扩张负脱钩) | 0.90(增长连接) | 0.48(相对脱钩) | 0.84(增长连接) |
沧州 | 5.20(扩张负脱钩) | 0.57(相对脱钩) | 1.48(扩张负脱钩) | 1.35(扩张负脱钩) |
烟台 | 0.76(相对脱钩) | 1.33(扩张负脱钩) | 0.84(增长连接) | 3.17(扩张负脱钩) |
威海 | 1.18(增长连接) | 1.51(扩张负脱钩) | 1.72(扩张负脱钩) | 11.15(扩张负脱钩) |
青岛 | 1.42(扩张负脱钩) | 0.98(增长连接) | 0.74(相对脱钩) | 1.73(扩张负脱钩) |
日照 | 3.23(扩张负脱钩) | 1.37(扩张负脱钩) | 0.97(增长连接) | 2.22(扩张负脱钩) |
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