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多情景模拟下的跨境铁路运输时效研究——以中老铁路为例
Temporal efficiency of cross-border railways with multiple simulation scenarios: A case study of the China-Laos Railway
跨境铁路运输是中国与周边国家陆路联通的重要环节。跨境铁路运输时效既受线路畅通情况、基础设施技术等级等“硬联通”因素的制约,也受到海关条例、口岸畅通水平等“软联通”因素的影响。因此,跨境铁路运输时效研究应充分考虑不同情景,以期更科学地模拟运输时长的变化机理。本文以中老铁路(中国昆明-老挝万象,简称中老铁路)为例,在梳理中老铁路沿线地区社会经济概况及基础设施发展水平的基础上,考虑不同运营速度、通关时间、铁轨换装、多式联运等因素,构建了长途跨境运输时间的计算模型,采用多情景模拟方法,解析了中老铁路运的优势距离及客货运时效变化。研究表明:① 中老铁路有助于沿线跨境运输时间显著减少。相比公路运输,客货运时间优势均超过20%;② 通关时间是影响跨境铁路运输的关键要素之一,占运输总时长的20%~60%;③ 铁海联运是中老铁路运输进一步提升运输效率的途径,能有效缩短老挝至日本的总运输时间。
Cross-border railway transportation is an important link between China and its neighboring countries. The organization of cross-border railway transportation is not only restricted by the “hard connectivity” factors such as the railway track connection and the technical level of infrastructure but also affected by the “soft connectivity” factors such as customs regulations. Therefore, the study on its organization should fully consider various scenarios to better simulate the process of cross-border railway transportation and improve the accuracy of transportation duration estimation. Taking the China-Laos Railway (Kunming, China to Vientiane, Laos) as an example, this paper analyzes the socio-economic background and infrastructure development level along the China-Laos Railway and builds a calculation model of long-distance cross-border transportation time including parameters of railway operating speed, customs clearance time, rail transshipment, and multimodal transport temporal cost. The model splits the China-Laos Railway into sections according to different technical levels and borders, and transportation modes. To study the between-mode difference, the paper compares the transportation distance and time between railway and road modes. Moreover, the simulation extends the study in the Trans-Asian Railway Network. To investigate the passenger travel efficiency, we design 15 stops along the railway to simulate the China-Laos passenger train schedule so that we can study how the train improves the connectivity between cities in Laos and Southwest China. In the study of freight efficiency, we compare the general cargo mode and the international freight train mode. In addition, we design rail-sea intermodal transportation scenarios for Laos to compare the long-distance transportation duration at different ports in Thailand and China. In brief, this paper analyzes the distance advantage and passenger and freight transport efficiency of the China-Laos Railway. The study shows that: 1) the China-Laos Railway helps to significantly reduce the cross-border transportation duration along the line. Compared with road transportation, the time advantage of passenger and freight transportation is more than 20%. 2) Customs clearance time is one of the key factors affecting cross-border railway transportation duration. The clearance time of the China-Laos Railway transportation accounts for 20% to 60% of the total transportation duration. 3) Rail-sea intermodal transport is an effective way to further improve the efficiency of transportation organization for the China-Laos Railway transportation, which can effectively shorten the total transportation duration from Laos to Japan. The paper offers a solid case study for cross-border transportation study from the perspectives of multiple modes and scenario simulation. Still, this paper has some limitations as we have not consider the railway capacity, the monetary cost of cross-border railway transportation, and geopolitics within the Trans-Asian Railway Network.
跨境运输 / 客货运组织 / 中老铁路 / 情景模拟 / 运输时效 {{custom_keyword}} /
cross-border transportation / passenger and freight organization / the China-Laos Railway / scenario simulation / transportation efficiency {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 中老铁路跨境运输时间模拟情景Table 1 Simulation scenarios of cross-border transportation time for the China-Laos Railway |
情景 | 行驶速度 | 停留时长 | 通关时长 | 路段数量 | 模拟情景 |
注: | |||||
1 | 0 | n=1 | 铁路对比公路,无停靠 | ||
2 | 0 | n=3 | 通关过程纳入换轨的影响 无换轨时,通关时间为0或7.00 h, 换轨时间为1.00 h | ||
3 | n=1; 2 | 铁路客运站点停靠时间对进口的影响 | |||
4 | 0 | n=1; 2 | 出口货运运输时间模拟 | ||
5 | 0 | n=1; 2 | 进口货运通关时间的影响 | ||
6 | n=1; 2 | 考虑货运班列组织方案 | |||
7 | 0 | n=3 | 考虑海铁联运方案,通关时间为0或7.00 h, 换轨时间为1.00 h |
表2 中老铁路、公路主要交通线路的运输距离和时间Table 2 Transportation time and travel distance for major Original-Destinations along the China-Laos Railway (railway vs. road) |
公路运输 距离/km | 铁路运输 距离/km | 公路运输 时间/h | 铁路运输 时间/h | |
昆明-磨憨 | 665 | 613 | 7.85 | 4.38 |
磨憨-万象 | 610 | 422 | 9.05 | 3.01 |
昆明-万象 | 1187 | 1035 | 17.27 | 7.39 |
表3 中老铁路主要交通线路的进口客运时间对比Table 3 Passenger travel time for major original-destinations along the China-Laos Railway |
中途停 靠站点 数量 | 铁路客运/h (进口通 关0.5 h) | 铁路客运/h (进口通 关1.00 h) | 铁路客运/h (进口通 关2.00 h) | |
万象-昆明(进口) | 15 | 9.39 | 9.89 | 10.89 |
万象-玉溪(进口) | 13 | 8.64 | 9.14 | 10.14 |
万象-磨憨(进口) | 5 | 5.01 | 5.51 | 6.51 |
表4 中老铁路、公路进出口货运直达运输时间对比/hTable 4 Comparison of freight transportation time along the China-Laos Railway (railway vs. road) |
公路货运 直达 | 铁路货运 直达 | 铁路货运(进口通关 3.00 h,出口通关0.12 h) | 铁路货运(进口通关 5.00 h,出口通关0.12 h) | 铁路运输(进口通关 7.00 h,出口通关0.12 h) | |
昆明-万象(出口) | 17.43 | 12.94 | 13.06 | 13.06 | 13.06 |
万象-昆明(进口) | 17.20 | 12.94 | 15.94 | 17.94 | 19.94 |
万象-磨憨(进口) | 8.99 | 5.28 | 8.28 | 10.28 | 12.28 |
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