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中国东北边境城市城镇化可持续发展过程及机制研究——以东宁和珲春市为例
丁月龙, 李晓玲, 刘鉴, 宋吉富, 贺红士
地理科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (3) : 474-482.
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中国东北边境城市城镇化可持续发展过程及机制研究——以东宁和珲春市为例
Sustainable development process and mechanism of urbanization in border cities in Northeast China: A case study of Dongning and Hunchun
({{custom_author.role_en}}), {{javascript:window.custom_author_en_index++;}}随着城镇化的快速发展，城市问题逐渐凸显，边境地区作为国家对外开放的重要门户，衡量其城镇化发展水平与可持续发展态势具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文以黑龙江省东宁市与吉林省珲春市为研究案例，从城市经济、口岸经济和社会状况3个维度构建边境城市城镇化可持续发展综合指标体系，采用熵值法和改进麦肯锡矩阵评价边境城市城镇化发展水平以及城镇化可持续发展的综合表现与发展趋势，最后通过障碍度模型探究影响城镇化可持续发展的主要障碍因子。结果表明：① 东宁和珲春总体城镇化发展水平呈上升趋势，主要受到城市经济与口岸经济发展水平的影响。② 东宁和珲春总体城镇化可持续发展趋势与其城镇化发展过程是同步的，总体经历了低发展水平的可持续发展（1993—2005年）、发展水平不断提高的非可持续发展（2006—2016年）、中等发展水平的可持续发展（2017—2020年）3个阶段。③ 东宁与珲春城镇化可持续发展总体趋势相同，但受口岸经济发展水平的影响，在部分阶段呈现出一定的差异性特征。④ 城市经济是长期影响东宁和珲春城镇化可持续发展的主要障碍准则层，固定资产投资总额、一般公共预算支出、一般公共预算收入与出口依存度为主要障碍因子。研究结果可为边境城市城镇化可持续研究提供一定的理论与实证参考。
This article takes Dongning in Heilongjiang Province and Hunchun in Jilin Province as research cases, constructs a comprehensive index system for sustainable urbanization development of border cities from three dimensions of urban economy, port economy and social condition, using the entropy method and the modified McKinsey Matrix to evaluate the level of urbanization development and the comprehensive performance and trends in sustainable urbanization of border cities, and finally exploring the main obstacle factors that affect sustainable urbanization development through the obstacle degree model. The results show that: 1) The overall level of urbanization development in Dongning and Hunchun shows an upward trend, which is mainly influenced by the development level of urban economy and port economy. 2) The overall trend of sustainable urbanization in Dongning and Hunchun is synchronized with its urbanization development process, and has generally experienced 3 stages of sustainable development with low development level (1993—2005), non-sustainable development with continuous improvement of development level (2006—2016), and sustainable development with medium development level (2017—2020). 3) The sustainable development of urbanization in Dongning and Hunchun has the same general trend, but shows some different characteristics at some stages due to the port’s economy development level. 4) Urban economy is the main obstacle standard layer that affects the sustainable urbanization development of Dongning and Hunchun in the long term, total investment in fixed assets, general public budget expenditure, general public budget revenue and export dependence are the main obstacle factors. The results of this article can provide some theoretical and empirical references for the study of sustainable urbanization in border cities.
边境城市 / 口岸经济 / 新型城镇化 / 麦肯锡矩阵 / 障碍度模型 {{custom_keyword}} /
border cities / port economy / new urbanization / McKinsey Matrix / obstacle degree model {{custom_keyword}} /
表1 边境城市城镇化可持续发展综合指标体系Table 1 Comprehensive index system for sustainable development of urbanization in border cities |
| 目标层 | 准则层 | 指标层 | 指标意义 | 权重/% |
| 边境城市城镇化可持续 发展综合指标体系 | 城市 经济 （U） | U1：GDP/万元 | 经济发展规模 | 8.30 |
| U2：人均GDP/元 | 经济发展水平 | 8.11 | ||
| U3：第二产业增加值/万元 | 第二产业发展规模以及对经济增长的作用 | 9.52 | ||
| U4：第三产业增加值/万元 | 第三产业发展规模以及对经济增长的作用 | 8.06 | ||
| U5：社会消费品零售总额/万元 | 社会需求和经济运行情况 | 8.03 | ||
| U6：固定资产投资总额/万元 | 购置固定资产的经济活动活跃情况 | 11.75 | ||
| 口岸 经济 （P） | P1：进出口总额/万美元 | 对外贸易规模 | 7.96 | |
| P2：出口依存度/% | 对外贸易规模 | 5.20 | ||
| P3：进口依存度/% | 对外贸易规模 | 3.09 | ||
| 社会 状况 （S） | S1：城镇化率/% | 城镇人口比重 | 0.14 | |
| S2：一般公共预算收入/万元 | 基本公共服务质量 | 9.81 | ||
| S3：一般公共预算支出/万元 | 基本公共服务质量 | 11.17 | ||
| S4：普通中、小学在校学生数/人 | 人口素质情况 | 0.65 | ||
| S5：居民储蓄存款余额/万元 | 居民储蓄水平 | 7.49 | ||
| S6：公路里程/km | 公路建设发展规模 | 0.72 |
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图1 东宁与珲春位置
表1 边境城市城镇化可持续发展综合指标体系图2 改进麦肯锡矩阵图3 东宁和珲春总体城镇化发展指数图4 城镇化可持续发展麦肯锡矩阵图5 东宁与珲春城镇化及各子系统发展指数图6 城镇化可持续发展影响因素准则层与指标层主要因子障碍度/
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