地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 980-988.doi: 10.1787/energy_bal_oecd-2015-en.

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基于发达国家比较的中国能源消费峰值预测

马丽1(), 刘立涛1   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-23 修回日期:2015-12-09 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:马丽(1975-),女,山西祁县人,博士,副研究员,主要从事经济地理与区域可持续发展、能源发展与环境影响研究。E-mail:mali@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41530643,41371142)资助

Peak Forecast of Chinese Energy Consumption Based on Developed Countries’S Trends

Li Ma1(), Litao Liu1   

  1. 1.Institute of Geogrsaphical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Scineces, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-11-23 Revised:2015-12-09 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    National Nature Sciences Foundation of China(41530643,41371142)

摘要:

通过比较英美等发达国家能源消费变化趋势,研究其出现峰值的社会经济条件,并采用长期能源替代规划系统模型(LEAP)模型对中国未来能源消费趋势及其峰值进行预测。研究发现,英美德法日加等国家的能源峰值皆是在其工业化和城市化进程基本完成、国民经济增速放缓、人均居民收入达到较高水平、整体社会经济进入平稳状态后才出现。根据中国社会经济发展趋势,随着产业结构转型和发展方式调整,中国工业能源消费峰值可能在2020~2030年期间实现,但生活和交通能源消费还将随着居民生活水平的提高而不断增长。预计中国能源峰值将在2040年左右出现,届时能源消费量将达到58×108t标准煤。为了保障如此巨大的能源需求,中国将面临较大的生态安全和国家安全风险。为此,中国必须转变传统经济发展观念,在保证国家稳定的前提下,适度降低经济增速,并尽快促进产业结构转型,提高能源开发和利用效率,同时要积极开展国际合作,保障国际油气进口的安全性。

关键词: 能源消费, 峰值背景, 峰值预测, 中国

Abstract:

Since 2000, the sustained and rapid growth of Chinese economy and relative rough growth model has lead into the huge increase of energy consumption. China has become the world’s largest energy consumer. Given the huge scale of energy consumption and impact on global climate change, the peak value and its coming time become the important issues for Chinese sustainable development. Through the comparison of energy consumption trend of some developed countries, the social and economic conditions of the peak value were studied. Then, this article estimated the trend of China’s future energy consumption with LEAP model taking the social and economic elements concerned, including growth rate, industrial structure, urbanization rate, population and vehicle-motors. It found that most developed countries, such as Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kindom and United States, have really get their energy consumption peak value in the beginning of 21st, when they had really finished the industrialization and urbanization process, the growth rate of GDP slowed down substantially, size of energy and heavy chemical industry stabilized or decreased, and GDP per capita reached to certain level. Given Chinese industrilizaton and urbanization continued, Chinese energy consumption will continue to increase in a long period. This paper forecast that he peak value of industrial energy consumption will be achieved during 2020-2030 with the transformation of industrial structure and capacity saturation of energy-intensive industries,while the residential and transport energy consumption will continue to grow with the improvement of living standard. Only under the strict socio-economic conditions, such as implementing economic development mode transformation, promoting industrial structure conversion and upgrading, maintaining economic growth in moderate speed(5%-6%), pushing forward urbanization steadily(urbanization rate is 70% in 2035 and 75% in 2050), controling the number of motor vehiclesstrictly and promoting new energy vehicleactively, the scale of China’s energy consumption will get to its peak value in 2040 with the size of 5.8 billion tce. Also, such huge energy demands will make China face with great risks and costs in ecological, economic and national security. Therefore, this paper argues that the current academic and political views on Chinese energy consumption turning point of Chinese is not conducive to the realization of China’s economic and social development and long-term goals due to its continued industrialization and urbanization process.On the other hand, China must change its traditional economic growth mode and accelerate industrial restructuring and improve energy exploitation and utilization efficiency. Also, it should carry out international cooperation actively and protect the safety of international oil and gas imports.

Key words: energy consumption, peak condition, peak forecast, China

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9