关键词: 能源消费, 峰值背景, 峰值预测, 中国

Abstract:

Since 2000, the sustained and rapid growth of Chinese economy and relative rough growth model has lead into the huge increase of energy consumption. China has become the world’s largest energy consumer. Given the huge scale of energy consumption and impact on global climate change, the peak value and its coming time become the important issues for Chinese sustainable development. Through the comparison of energy consumption trend of some developed countries, the social and economic conditions of the peak value were studied. Then, this article estimated the trend of China’s future energy consumption with LEAP model taking the social and economic elements concerned, including growth rate, industrial structure, urbanization rate, population and vehicle-motors. It found that most developed countries, such as Canada, France, Germany, Japan, United Kindom and United States, have really get their energy consumption peak value in the beginning of 21^st, when they had really finished the industrialization and urbanization process, the growth rate of GDP slowed down substantially, size of energy and heavy chemical industry stabilized or decreased, and GDP per capita reached to certain level. Given Chinese industrilizaton and urbanization continued, Chinese energy consumption will continue to increase in a long period. This paper forecast that he peak value of industrial energy consumption will be achieved during 2020-2030 with the transformation of industrial structure and capacity saturation of energy-intensive industries,while the residential and transport energy consumption will continue to grow with the improvement of living standard. Only under the strict socio-economic conditions, such as implementing economic development mode transformation, promoting industrial structure conversion and upgrading, maintaining economic growth in moderate speed(5%-6%), pushing forward urbanization steadily(urbanization rate is 70% in 2035 and 75% in 2050), controling the number of motor vehiclesstrictly and promoting new energy vehicleactively, the scale of China’s energy consumption will get to its peak value in 2040 with the size of 5.8 billion tce. Also, such huge energy demands will make China face with great risks and costs in ecological, economic and national security. Therefore, this paper argues that the current academic and political views on Chinese energy consumption turning point of Chinese is not conducive to the realization of China’s economic and social development and long-term goals due to its continued industrialization and urbanization process.On the other hand, China must change its traditional economic growth mode and accelerate industrial restructuring and improve energy exploitation and utilization efficiency. Also, it should carry out international cooperation actively and protect the safety of international oil and gas imports.

Key words: energy consumption, peak condition, peak forecast, China