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渤海海峡跨海通道建设与中国的地缘政治战略
回顾渤海海峡跨海通道建设研究的历史进程基础上,诠释了地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,梳理了主要的中外地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,明确指出地缘政治战略决定着大国竞争方向。中国是世界上地缘政治环境最复杂的国家,在中国周边长期存在着一个“V”字型地缘政治热点线,“V”字型地缘政治热点线贯穿中国周边的东南亚、东北亚、南亚、北亚、中亚五大地缘政治战略区,构成了中国的地缘政治“大棋局&rdqu. . .
地理科学, 2017 Vol. 37 (1): 1-10    DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.01.001
 
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  2017年, 第37卷, 第4期 刊出日期:2017-04-20 上一期    下一期
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论文
基于协同理论的旅游综合体演化过程与机制研究——以杭州西溪国家湿地公园为例
陆林,陈振,黄剑锋,凌善金,朱其静,穆成林,许艳
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 481-491.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.001
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1370KB)

选取杭州西溪国家湿地公园作为案例地,引用协同理论为指导,探讨了旅游综合体的演化过程与机制,认为西溪国家湿地公园是由多要素组成的协同系统,经历了旅游产业要素“集聚-共生-融合”的演化过程,萌芽、成长和完善3个阶段集聚的分别是传统旅游业态要素、新兴旅游业态要素和创新旅游业态要素。演化本质是协同系统序参量的变化,不同演化阶段序参量各异,萌芽阶段体现为要素集聚,受外部经济效益驱动;成长阶段体现为要素共生,受内部要素结构调整驱动;完善阶段体现为要素融合,受创新驱动。演化动力是要素间的非线性作用,通过系统内部与外部的能量交换及子系统间相互作用所形成的反馈机制来实现。选取房价作为指标,采用均质与非均质空间比较法测定了西溪国家湿地公园的空间溢出效应。旅游业与相关产业协同创新是西溪国家湿地公园发展模式的主要特征,具体表现为以优良的资源禀赋和广阔的市场为基础,以旅游业为核心,吸引相关产业要素集聚,形成共生和融合效应,发展过程中注重外部物质能量交换和内部自组织调控。


Taking Xixi National Wetland Park as a case, and referencing the synergy theory as a guide to explore the mechanisms of tourism complex formation and evolution. Result shows that Xixi National Wetland Park is composed of cooperative system with multiple elements, and it has experienced the "clustering-symbiotic-merging" evolution process, which can be divided into embryonic stage, growth stage and perfect stage. These three stages of gathering are traditional tourism business pattern elements, emerging tourism business pattern elements and innovative tourism business pattern elements. The nature of the evolution is the cooperative system order parameter changes, and different evolutionary stages have different order parameters. Embryonic stage embodied elements gathering, driven by external economic. Growth stage embodied elements symbiosis, driven by internal elements restructuring. Perfect stage embodied elements integration, driven by innovation. The power of evolution is the nonlinear interaction between the elements, achieved by the feedback mechanism which formed by the systems’ internal and external energy exchange and interaction between subsystems. Selecting the house price as an indicator, we use the homogeneous and heterogeneous spatial comparison, to measure the spatial spillover effects of the Xixi National Wetland Park. The spatial spillover effects mainly come from the space radiation generated by the tourism elements of agglomeration, which is spatial heterogeneity essentially. The collaborative innovation of tourism and related industries are the main features of Xixi National Wetland Park development model, which is based on the excellent natural resources and broad market, with tourism as the core to attract related industries elements gathering, then forms the symbiotic and integration effect. Also the external energy exchange and internal self-regulatory organization are focused during the development process.

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城市内部研发密集型制造业的空间分布与区位选择模式——以北京、上海为例
杨凡,杜德斌,段德忠,林晓
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 492-501.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.002
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2267KB)

基于微观企业数据对北京和上海研发密集型制造业空间分布的特征和影响因素进行分析,进而揭示其区位选择模式差异。研究发现,北京企业集中分布特征明显,热点区主要位于核心城区及近郊的少数地区,并形成以中关村-上地为中心的集聚格局;上海企业表现为集中与扩散并存,热点区在郊环线以里区域零散布局,并形成以漕河泾和张江为双核的联动共生集聚格局;北京和上海企业均存在开发区和交通指向性以及路径依赖,与此同时,上海企业还具有学研机构和老工业区指向性以及郊区化现象,北京企业则出现逆郊区化。研发密集型制造业在北京和上海分别形成以开发区为空间载体的“紧凑型-中心性”模式和以开发区、学研机构和老工业区为多元空间载体的“离散型-郊区化”模式。不同行业企业基本符合总体特征,但又呈现一定的特殊性。


Beijing and Shanghai are major sci-tech innovation hub cities in China. Based on urban ZIP code spatial database and R&D-intensive manufacturing firm data, this article explores the spatial distribution and influence factors of R&D-intensive manufacturing industry by using ArcGIS and Stata, and then reveals the difference of the location distribution model of R&D-intensive manufacturing industry between Beijing and Shanghai. The results show that Beijing R&D-intensive manufacturing industry tended to distribute mainly in the northwest inside the Sixth Ring and displayed the centralized pattern of Zhongguancun-Changping, Fengtai, Yizhuang and Wangjing-Jiuxianqiao as spatial aggregated hot zones, while Shanghai R&D-intensive manufacturing industry was characterized by the coexistence of concentration and diffusion, distributing in each direction inside the suburban loop line and taking Caohejing, Zhangjiang, Jinqiao, Meilong and Wujiaochang as spatial aggregated hot zones. Meanwhile, both Beijing and Shanghai R&D-intensive manufacturing industry had significant agglomeration effects, the difference is that Beijing took Zhongguancun-Shangdi as the single agglomerate center, while Shanghai took Caohejing and Zhangjiang as the twin symbiotic agglomeration pattern. The spatial distribution of different industrial types was unanimous with the general characteristics, but showing a certain specific. The high-technology firms were mostly located in the main urban areas, and their hotspots distribution shrunk back to the main urban areas and suburbs. Conversely, the other traditional manufacturing firms which also belong to R&D-intensive manufacturing industry were scattered in the outskirts, with the hotspots stretched out to the remote suburbs. Development zone, transportation accessibility and path dependence all had an important impact on the choice of location of firms in Beijing and Shanghai, and in addition the location of Shanghai firms was also affected by the positive impact of suburbanization and the location of research institutions and the old industrial areas, while suburbanization have negative impacts on the location of Beijing firms. As a result, the R&D-intensive manufacturing industry distribution in Beijing was a compact-central model with the development zone as the single industrial spatial carrier, while in Shanghai was a discrete-suburbanize model with development zones, research institutes and old industrial areas as multiple industrial space carriers. This study just used cross-sectional data without a time-series, so it could not analyze the evolution trend of the R&D-intensive manufacturing industry distribution and its formation mechanism. Also, the data possibly had survivorship bias. More importantly, the difference of economic and social benefits between different R&D-intensive manufacturing industry spatial distribution patterns needs to be discussed further.

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长江经济带创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因
徐维祥,杨蕾,刘程军,张凌燕,李露
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 502-511.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.003
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1798KB)

利用区位基尼系数、空间自相关、相对发展率指数(NICH指数)以及空间面板数据模型等分析方法,以长江经济带沿线38个中心城市作为空间观测单元,结合专利授权量等相关数据,研究了创新产出的时空演化特征及其成因。结果表明:2000~2013年长江经济带沿线中心城市的创新产出在整体上逐年增长,地理集中度呈现波动下降趋势;长三角地区相对发展速度较快;创新产出的空间集聚程度表现出反“Z”字形的波动上升态势;创新产出的热点区域由长三角-成渝“双核心”空间结构发展成长三角“单极突出”空间格局,且长三角热点区域范围有所增长,冷点区域则分布在长江中游地带;技术溢出、政府行为、空间区位和金融支持均对长江经济带沿线中心城市的创新产出具有显著地正向影响,经济基础对下游城市具有促进作用。根据研究结论还提出了相应政策建议。


With the methods of local Gini coefficient, spatial autoregression, NICH coefficient and panel data model, this study takes the 38 center cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as spatial observing units to discuss the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and its causes of innovation output, measured by the number of patents authorization and other related data. The result indicates that from 2000 to 2013, the overall innovation output in the center cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt is increasing year by year, while the geographic concentration of it presents a fluctuated downward trend. The relative development rate of the Yangtze River Delta area is faster than others. The agglomeration degree of innovation output shows a shape of mirrored “Z” with a fluctuated upward trend. The hot spots regions of innovation output develop into a “monopolar-prominent” spatial pattern in the Yangtze River Delta area from a “dual-central” spatial structure in the Yangtze River Delta area and Chengdu-Chongqing area, and the scope of hot spots regions is extending. Besides, the cold spots regions are concentrated in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; Technology spillover, government actions, spatial proximity and financial supports can make significantly positive effects on the innovation output in the center cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the economic foundation can promote the development of innovation output in downstream cities. According to the conclusions, this article also propounds some corresponding suggestions.

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都市区空间结构与经济发展的互动关系研究
张婷麟,孙斌栋
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 512-518.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.004
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (415KB)

文章采用结构方程模型实证检验空间结构与经济发展的互动关系。研究发现,中国都市区已经进入多中心分散阶段,空间结构与经济发展存在因果关系,即经济发展水平的提高会扩大人口规模,规模增加则导致集聚不经济上升,并促进空间结构多中心化。多中心化后的空间结构由于降低了集聚不经济而进一步提高生产率。因而,传统地理学中关于两者互动发展的描述得到实证支持;同时明确了多中心化的直接动力是人口规模的增加,而不是经济发展水平的提高。这些发现对于优化当前中国的城市与区域空间战略具有重要的启示。


Urban spatial structure is believed to be born out of socio-economic development, so it is subject to the stage of economic development, and also influences the economic activities. The interactive relationship between spatial structure and economic development has always been the core issue of economic geography. Exploring this relationship helps to optimize the urban spatial structure and benefit economic performance. Previous related studies are abundant with theoretical descriptions, but lack of empirical supports, and some mechanisms are not elaborated clearly enough. This article examines the interaction between spatial structure and economic development with econometric models. Traditional linear regression models with single equation can only test one-way relationship, this study uses structural equation models to estimate the relationship between several dependent variables such as urban labor productivity, population and polycentricity from an overall perspective. The results show that: 1) Most Chinese cities have entered the stage of morphologically polycentric spatial structure; 2)There exists an interactive causal relationship between spatial structure and economic development; 3) The polycentricity is driven by urban population size, rather than economic growth. The concrete circular causality between spatial structure and economic development is as follows, the population expands with the economic development, then promotes the formation of polycentric spatial structure probably driven by the rise of agglomeration diseconomy; the increasing polycentricity improves the urban labor productivity likely due to the weakened agglomeration diseconomy. In addition, the polycentric spatial structure is also closely related to high second industry ratio and proportion of small firms; and urban population is depended on the historical population and industrial structure, higher ratio of second industry and more population in 1953 lead to bigger size of urban population. These findings have important policy implications for optimizing urban spatial strategies in China. Overall, polycentricity should be encouraged by urban spatial policies in China. Moreover, considering that the population size rather than economic growth boosts the polycentricity, for megacities like Beijing and Shanghai or cities in developed coastal areas, the polycentric strategy can be used to reduce agglomeration diseconomy and improve economic performance; for small and medium-sized cities or cities in less developed middle and west China, policy should also be conducted to decrease the external diseconomies of agglomeration, the mono-centric spatial structure can still benefit the economic performance there.

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景观生态学视角下长春城市功能空间耦合特征研究
孙博,程淑佳,于国政,王肇钧
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 519-527.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.005
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (4372KB)

基于1995年、2003年、2011年长春市土地利用现状图和相关年份统计年鉴,结合ArcGIS10.2和Fragstats3.3技术平台,综合利用景观生态学方法从微观视角选取城市贫困空间、城市扩展新区以及城市单位社区对不同地域城市功能空间的耦合特征进行了研究,结果表明:城市贫困空间用地组合混乱无序,工业空间、居住空间与服务空间镶嵌分布,由此造成城市功能空间生产与生活功能的相互干扰;外部扩张的扩展模式导致城市扩展新区地域内城市功能空间的破碎化以及离散化程度不断加剧,并且工业空间在城市扩展新区内呈现出近域推进与广域扩散并存复杂化特征;城市单位社区用地类型不断趋于合理化,用地混合程度不断提高,城市功能空间不断优化重组,城市功能空间界限开始模糊化,城市单位社区不断向社会型社区转型。最后给出了长春城市功能空间优化调控对策,即完善城市工业用地分类标准、倡导城市功能有机融合与适度分散、合理引导传统工业外围扩散。


Based on the land utilization data and related statistical yearbooks of Changchun City in 1995, 2003, and 2011, combination of ArcGIS 10.2 and Fragstats 3.3 technology platform, by using the method of landscape ecology, this article studies the coupling characteristics of urban function space in the urban poor space, the new urban expansion area and the urban unit community from the micro-perspective. The results show that: 1) The land spatial distribution of the urban space in the urban poor space has a disorder blended characteristic, and the character mosaic distribution of industrial space, residential space and service space has resulted the interaction between the production and life of urban functional space; 2) The external expansion mode leads to the city function space fragmentation and discrete degree increasing in the new urban expansion area, and the industrial space in the city new district presents the complex characteristics of near field propulsion and wide area diffusion; 3) The land use type and the land mixed degree in the city unit community is rationalizing, reflecting that the city function space has been optimized and restructured, and the boundary of urban function space has begun to blur. The research above shows that the urban unit community is changing to the social community. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to optimize the function space of Changchun City, that is to say, to improve the classification standard of urban industrial land, to promote the organic integration and moderate the dispersion of urban functions, and to guide the diffusion of traditional industries.

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南通市建设用地扩张情景模拟与景观生态效应
杨清可,段学军,金志丰,王磊
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 528-536.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.006
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1270KB)

选择城镇化进程快速、区位条件特殊的南通市作为案例,集成CLUE-S模型与Auto-logistic回归模型构建适合不同情景的建设用地扩张的动态分布模型。通过1987年以来遥感影像获取的4个时段的南通市建设用地增长时空特征分析提取先验知识规则,模拟在基准、经济发展、生态保护等情景下建设用地增长与空间布局,通过景观学知识分析其空间扩张的生态效应。结果表明,1987年以来,南通市建设用地扩张剧烈,空间上围绕城区和乡镇中心快速蔓延,呈现“轴线增长-内部填充”交替的周期性波动规律。Kappa系数与模拟正确率(PCM)显示,构建的复合集成模型具有较高的可靠性,能够应用于对未来建设用地空间分布的模拟。模拟结果显示未来建设用地扩张集中在城镇周边,其中在经济发展情景下还有向东部沿海滩涂扩展的趋势。由于扩张剧烈,在建设用地集中区呈现出融合成更大面积分布区的现象。建设用地空间扩张的斑块密度和景观形状指数均较高,景观格局趋于不稳定,破碎化相对严重。


Modeling and scenario analysis are the core content of the research on the spatial expansion of construction land. On account of the rapid urbanization process and the special geographical position, Nantong is chosen as the study case in this paper. We employ the hybrid model of CLUE-S and Auto-logistic regression to project the likelihood map of land use distribution, and then simulate the dynamic distribution of the expansion of construction land. We acquire a series of knowledge rules by analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of construction land expansion from four time periods of remote sensing images since 1987. The future expansion of construction land under different cenarios is then simulated based on the baseline model, economic development model, ecological conservation model. Through the landscape ecology knowledge we analyze the ecological environment effect of construction land expansion under different scenarios. Key results emerge: since 1987, the expansion of construction land in Nantong has been rapid, which is spreading intensely around the city and the town center on the space. It’s presented that the alternate rule of cyclical fluctuations in the form of ‘axis growth—interior filled’. At the meanwhile, the Kappa and PCM coefficients also show that the hybrid model has high reliability and can be applied to the simulation of the spatial distribution of construction land in the future. The simulation results declare that the expansion of construction land is concentrated in the urban area and towns around, and there is an obvious expansion trend towards the east coast under the economic development scenario. Due to the intense expansion, it’s very obvious that the spatial pattern tends to merge into the larger districts in the concentration area of construction land. The patch density and landscape shape index of the construction land expansion are both high, the landscape pattern tends to be unstable, and the fragmentation is also relatively severe. Therefore, not only control the amount of construction land expansion in the future land use, but also optimize the spatial landscape pattern, which can provide scientific basis for land intensive use, urban growth boundary control and ecosystem management of Nantong City.

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基于战略性新兴产业的长江三角洲城市网络结构演变研究
庄德林,杨羊,晋盛武,韩荣
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 546-553.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.008
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2879KB)

基于2004~2013年战略性新兴产业上市公司跨区布址数据,运用社会网络分析法对长江三角洲城市群空间结构演变规律进行了分析。研究发现:长江三角洲城市网络的主要联系流由 “Z”字形空间结构演变为“金字塔”形结构。 高行政级别城市在网络要素资源配置中占据主导地位,省会城市的中介能力呈现“倒U”型发展趋势。沪杭宁甬苏合6城市构成了长三角城市网络的核心层,核心-边缘层联系成为占据主导地位的联系方式;城市网络凝聚子群具有明显的地理粘着性,沪宁和杭州凝聚子群分别是群内联系和群际联系的标杆。


The spatial network structure of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is investigated using the social network analysis model based on the strategic emerging industries’ listed companies data in 2004-2013. Major findings are as follows:Firstly, the traditional “Z”-shaped backbone of the Yangtze River Delta’s city network turned into pyramid-shape which is anchored by Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei and Ningbo. Recent years have witnessed the accelerated growth in network linkage density of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The city network structure is obviously polycentric and the centralization level has been constantly increasing. Various network linkage patterns coexist in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Secondly, core node cities have played increasingly important roles in resources allocation. Provincial capitals and sub-provincial cities show overwhelming advantage of resources agglomeration and radiation in the urban network, but a U-shaped pattern can be found in their betweenness centrality. Thirdly, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Hefei constitute the core layer of the Yangtze River Delta’s city network and the linkage between core cities and peripheral ones has become the dominating pattern. The member structure of cohesive subgroups presents obviously regional trend. Shanghai-Nanjing cohesive subgroup and Hangzhou cohesive subgroup are the leading one in the field of intra-subgroup linkage and inter-subgroup linkage respectively.

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城市贫困群体主观生活质量研究——以西安市典型社区为例
薛东前,吕玉倩,黄晶,马蓓蓓
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 554-562.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.009
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (736KB)

基于调查问卷和半结构式访谈的数据,以西安市典型社区贫困群体的主观生活质量为研究对象,分别采用语义差别法研究生活环境感知、熵权TOPSIS 法测算主观满意度、关联网络法分析生活感受特征。结果表明:贫困群体对生活环境感知存在局限性,感知能力较差,大多数人群感知结果偏向于正,形成主观感知与客观事实存在偏差的特征。贫困群体对生活质量感知较为敏感。就生活质量主观满意度而言,贫困群体主观满意度不高,离各指标的最优状态还相差甚远。4个典型地区贫困人群的主观满意度同处于中等偏低水平。就生活质量感受特征而言,贫困群体对其生活状况的感受整体上是消极的和负面的,生活的不满主要与工作状况、薪资水平密切相关,生活的满意感主要与邻里关系及交通条件等有关。不同类型社区贫困群体感知差异显著,形成原因与典型社区的规划建设背景、所处地理位置、现有功能定位等因素有关。


Improving life quality of poverty-stricken people will not only relaxing the classes tension but also promoting social harmony. Urban poverty is a worldwide outstanding issue, since the 1990s, the transformation of China’s social and economic had begun, along with the adjustment of economic structure, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the change of employment system, the loosening of household management, a large number of new urban poor has emerged in China. Xi’an is the most economically developed city in Northwest China. After entering the social and economic transition, a large number of laid-off workers, rural and urban population, serving low-income and unemployed person have been formed to expand the scale of the urban poor, urban poverty is getting worse. This article select four typical areas of new urban poverty and new urban poor groups for the study. They are the degradation of the state-owned industrial area (Street Office Fangzhicheng), marginalized inner-city areas (Street Office Jiefangmen ), migrants inhabited villages (Street Office Yuhuazhai), and ruins of protected areas (Street Office Liucunpu). The four different typical poor districts represent the four different poverty genetics. After in-depth interviews with the research community, we make analysis for the urban poor based on the quality of life. Methods of semantic differential, association network and TOPSIS are separately used to analyze self-awareness of living conditions, life experience and life satisfaction. At last the author analyzes the main cause of the difference of the subjective quality of life. The main conclusions are as follow: The author have done a lot of research in the new situation of poverty in Xi’an City with questionnaire and interview and analyzed subjective life quality of the typical poverty-stricken area of Xi’an City by using Semantic Differential, TOPSIS and Association Network in this article. The result has shown that: 1) The poverty-stricken people tend to have limitations and a bad perceived ability. Study found that many of the poverty-stricken people have low cognitive ability for their own poor living conditions, and it shows that objective facts do not conform to subjective perception. There exists deviation between subjective perception and objective facts. 2) The poverty-stricken people are sensitive to life quality. The overall life contentment of the poverty-stricken people is not high and still far from the optimal state. The subjective satisfaction of poverty-stricken people in the typical community is at the medium to low level. And the perception of the poverty-stricken people is weak and tend to be negative. The poor are mainly dissatisfied with the working conditions and salary levels. And satisfaction is mainly closed to relationship with neighbors, traffic conditions and other factors. 3) The people in different typical community have different perception. Poverty-stricken people’s subjective satisfaction is mostly related to the background of community planning and implementation, geographical location and function orientation.

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基于3S技术的城乡一体化进程监测评价方法及应用——以浙江嘉善县为例
王宏志,黄欢欢,徐新良,王靓
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 563-572.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.010
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基于3S技术构建城乡一体化进程监测评价指标体系和综合评价模型,以浙江嘉善县为例开展监测评价。结果表明:嘉善县各乡镇城乡一体化程度综合指数差值不超过1.95倍,发展较均衡;2003~2015年间人口城镇化率上升了20.4%;各乡镇内部道路系统密度差异由18倍缩小到4.3倍,城乡道路网络系统由单核向多核演变;各乡镇城乡收入差距在2倍之内且呈缩小趋势;城乡居民地空间布局比较均衡,城镇带动周边农村居民点快速发展。该指标体系在客观性和空间表达等方面发展了城乡统筹定量研究方法。


At present, most studies in urban-rural integration conduct quantitative researches using statistical indexes, which are fairly subjective. Through 3S technology, this study advanced an evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation model of urban-rural integration, based on which a series of systematic monitoring work was carried out in Jiashan, Zhejiang Province. The results showed that the maximum composite index of urban-rural integration degree was only 1.95 times larger than the minimum one, which showed a great balance; During 2003-2015, the rate of urbanization population has increased by 20.4%; The difference between the maximum and minimum value of road network density decreased from 18 times to 4.3 times, and the road network system changed from single-core to multi-core; The income gap between urban and rural was well controlled within 2 times with a narrowing trend; The spatial distribution of urban and rural habitation was relatively uniform, and the rapid expansion of urban areas would boost the development of surrounding rural residential areas. The index system has helped develop the quantitative methods of urban-rural integration studies in terms of objectivity and spatial expression.

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中国住宅出让地价发育特征及其影响因素分析
韩娟,金晓斌,张志宏,孙伟,徐心茹,周寅康
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 573-584.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.011
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基于中国土地市场网2009~2013年招、拍、挂出让的住宅用地数据,以县级行政区域作为研究单元,建立区域住宅地价综合模型,选取地价水平、地价增长率和交易宗数作为评价指标,采用Ward系统聚类法,综合分析了中国住宅出让地价的发育特征,利用多分类Logistic回归模型探索了各类地价发育形态的潜在影响因素。结果表明:研究期内中国住宅出让地价总体呈现东高西低、沿海高于内陆、城市群带动周边区域发展、城市群内部围绕中心城市增长等空间格局特征;中西部地价高增长的单元多于东部,西北、东北中南部、四川盆地、河西走廊以及长江中下游地区是地价高增长的聚集区;住宅市场活跃度呈阶梯状变化,活跃度较高的地区主要分布在山东半岛、长三角、长江中游、辽宁中部、哈尔滨、成渝、滇中、呼包鄂等城市群。根据综合特征,中国住宅出让地价空间发育可分为成熟稳健型、发展完善型、成长发展型、萌芽起步型和成长受阻型5类,相邻发育形态在空间关系上表现出互为邻里的特征。各类发育区的主要影响因素差异显著。区位条件、居民收入和财政收入是地价发育成熟度的主要影响因素;人均GDP、国土开发度提升将促进地价形态发育程度;而人口吸引力不足、基础设施建设相对滞后等将导致地价形态发育受阻。


In order to identify the spatial characteristics of residential land price in China, this article establishes such a method so as to calculate residential land prices in China at the county level by integrating land transaction data from 2009 to 2013, and chooses three indicators to evaluate the development of the residential land market. Then, Ward’s hierarchical clustering is used to classify the regions into different types of development status in the residential land market and logistic regression model is used to explore potential factors and their impacts on each development type. Several results were acquired: 1) Residential land prices in China decrease along gradients from east to west and from the coast to inland. Urban agglomeration promotes surrounding regions, and a central city promotes surrounding cities. The main areas with high price growth rate are concentrated in the west-north zones, middle-south in the north-east zones, Sichuan Basin, Hexi Corridor, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The activity level of residential market transactions appears stepped change. The counties with high-active market transactions are mainly concentrated in Shandong peninsula, the Yangtze River Delta, the middle of the Yangtze River, Central Liaoning, Harbin, Chengdu and Chongqing, Yunnan, and Hohhot-Baotou-Rrdos urban agglomeration, and so on. 2) The development of the land market can be classified as ‘mature,’ ‘improving,’ ‘growing,’ ‘germinating’ or ‘blocked’. The neighboring types also appear neighborhood relation in spatial. 3) The main factors of each type differ significantly. The location condition, resident income and revenue are the main factors affecting the development maturity of price. The increase of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and the level of development of the land promotes the development of land price, while a lack of population, and a lack of infrastructure results in the development of land price being blocked.

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西北干旱区乡村性评价及驱动机制研究——以甘肃武威为例
聂晓英,石培基,张学斌,吕蕊,朱艳芬,魏伟
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 585-594.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.012
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基于武威市1949~2013年65 a的社会经济统计数据,以县域为基本单元构建乡村性指标体系,通过测算各县区乡村性指数和分异指数来分析乡村性的时间演变和空间分异,并从社会经济和技术经济两个维度探讨了乡村性演变的影响因素。结果表明: 1949~2013年间武威市各县区乡村性指数总体呈减弱趋势,但减弱幅度和速度存在差异。各县区乡村性分异指数呈波动增长趋势,2000年以后乡村性分异指数急剧增长,表明各县区乡村性差异越来越大。社会经济和技术经济是影响乡村性变动的两大动因,各因素的发展致使城乡差距缩小、乡村性水平减弱、城乡一体化发展趋势明显。


Rural development occupies an important position in arid regions of northwest China. Along with the implementation of Western Development Strategy and the Construction of New Socialist Countryside, rural development in arid regions of northwest China embraces a new round of change. Study on dynamic change features and influencing factors of rurality and its driving mechanism, taking Wuwei City of Gansu Province as an example, is of great theoretical and practical significance to the formation of rural development plans and strategies in northwest arid areas based on local conditions. With the support of the socio-economic statistic data of Wuwei City in 65 years, this paper constructed rurality index system with county as the basic unit, calculated the rurality indexes of various counties and districts by factor analysis method and analyzed the time evolution and space differentiation of rurality levels by virtue of simple linear regression model and rurality differentiation index model. Moreover, the influencing factors of rurality evolution and its driving mechanism were also discussed from aspects of social economy and technical economy. As the results showed, 1) The rurality indexes of various counties and districts in Wuwei City in 1949-2013 decreased on the whole, but the reducing degrees and speed differed. The annual decline of rurality indexes remained large in general, while the variation coefficient kept increasing. Three stages were divided according to rurality indexes: high rurality (1949-1978), moderate rurality (1979-2003) and low rurality (2004-2013). 2) The rurality differentiation indexes in various counties and districts showed a trend of fluctuations in growth, which indicated that the rurality differentiation was growing large, especially after the year of 2000, when the differentiation indexes fluctuated significantly and increased rapidly, and the rurality indexes changed greatly along with prominent unbalanced economic development. 3) Social economy and technical economy are two major factors affecting the change of rurality. During the process of industrial structure adjustment, traffic improvement, intensified government policy support, rural labor force transfer, advancement of agricultural mechanization level and adjustment of planting structure, the urban-rural gap is narrowing down, rurality is constantly weakening and the development of urban and rural integration becomes a major trend.

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中越边境乡村民居景观的符号象征与认同建构——广西龙州县边境乡村案例
万蕙,唐雪琼
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 595-602.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.013
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以广西龙州县边境乡村的法式民居景观为例,从历史的角度分析法式民居景观兴盛的缘由,并探讨其象征意义及认同建构。研究发现,法式民居景观作为承载文化意义的符号,是财富和社会地位的象征;又因其宫殿式形态,成为当地人幻想更大权欲以获得自我满足的源泉。此外,法式民居景观强化了当地村民对自身身份的认同建构,并唤起了他们对历史的缅怀、对家的归属感和对地方的认同感。研究既是对新文化地理学关于景观研究向社会文化意义转向的例证,也是对新文化地理学中关于地方、景观与认同关系研究的回应。


According to the new cultural geography, culture is not an intrinsic, unified whole, but composes of different. Although Longzhou’s French-decorated folk houses landscape is famous as ‘historic’, it is not a mere relic of the past but a landscape under continual reproduction. French-decorated folk houses adorned with sculptures and vibrant colors feature a variety of modern architectural styles with foreign and exotic imaginaries. The residential landscape plays an important role not just in a formal sense but also in terms of secular judgment of personal fortune where thrifty peasants become lavish spenders with the ability to discriminate, selecting high-quality decoration that reflect their economy strength. In addition, French-decorated folk houses also strengthen the personal identity and local identity of local peasants. The study is not only exemplified on the change of landscape research to the social and cultural significance in the field of new cultural geography, but also a response to the core research issue of the relationship between the locality, landscape and identity in the discipline of new cultural geography.

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基于Copula函数的暴雨要素三维联合分布——以宽甸县为例
张野,王康,刘欣铭,张苏辰,周嘉,王菜林
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 603-610.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.014
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以辽宁省宽甸县为例,利用1955~2012年逐日降水数据,提取年暴雨日数(D50)、年暴雨量(P50)、年均暴雨强度(I)和暴雨比(R)共4个暴雨要素,运用K-S法确定各单要素最优概率分布函数;针对暴雨要素多面性,通过引入Copula函数,构建三维联合分布并进行AIC和RMSE优度检验,确定适合暴雨要素的最优Copula函数,分析多要素联合后暴雨的概率和重现期特征。研究表明:单变量拟合仅反映暴雨单个要素本身的信息,无法涉及要素间的联系;三维Copula联合可从3方面呈现暴雨要素间的内在信息,更贴近实际;暴雨本身的多要素性,为Copula函数在暴雨分析上提供了广阔前景; 年暴雨日数、年暴雨量和年均暴雨强度的联合适合反映宽甸县暴雨重现期;宽甸县暴雨联合重现期短,多为0~2 a,同现重现期较长,集中于200 a左右;2种重现期变化趋势一致,存在同步效应,反映了暴雨要素的不可分割性。


Taking Kuandian County in Liaoning Province as an example, the author extract four rainstorm factors: the annual rainstorm days, annual of rainstorm depth, annual average rainstorm intensity and rainstorm contribution, through the daily precipitation data from 1955 to 2012 and use the Kolmogorov-Smimov method to determine optimal probability distribution for each single factor. For the multifaceted rainstorm factor, we use AIC and RMSE test to confirm the best fitted copulas connect function suitable for rainstorm factor by introducing the copula function and building three-dimensional joint distribution, and analyze the probability of rainstorm and characteristics of return period with many combined factors. Research shows that: 1) The joint of annual rainstorm days, annual of rainstorm depth and annual average rainstorm intensity is suitable for reaction joint return period of rainstorm factor in Kuandian County; In Kuandian County, joint return period is short and distribute on 0-2 years, co-occurrence return period is longer, concentrated in around 200 years; the change trend of two kinds of return period is consistent, it has synchronization effect, this reflect inseparable of rainstorm factor. 2) The univariate reflect just one factor of information in rainstorm and doesn’t involved in the relationship between factors; Three-dimensional copulas joint can present the internal information between heavy elements from three aspects and closer to the actual; Multiple factors of rainstorm, as copulas function on the rainstorm analysis provides a broad prospects.

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近55年淮河上中游流域气候要素多时间尺度演变特征及关联性分析
王景才,郭佳香,徐蛟,李帆
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 611-619.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.015
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选取1960~2014年淮河上中游流域19个气象站点的月降水量、气温和日照时数等数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall、Morlet小波和相关系数法,对流域年和四季降水、气温和日照时数的变化趋势、多时间尺度演变特征以及相关性进行了研究。结果表明:① 降水在年和四季线性变化趋势不显著;气温除夏季不显著外,年和春、秋、冬季变暖趋势显著;日照时数除春季不显著外,年和夏、秋、冬季节变短趋势显著;② 降水、气温、日照时数在年和四季分别表现出多个时间尺度的相对丰枯、冷暖和长短交替特征;第一主周期尺度及其相应的平均变化周期在年和四季有的较接近有的相差较大,第一主要平均周期介于2~10 a之间;③ 气温的复相关系数均小于降水和日照时数;除冬季气温复相关系数较小外,其他季节各要素均较大。降水-日照的偏相关系数绝对值在年和四季均最大。降水-日照时数、降水-气温大部分情况呈反相关系,冬季气温和日照时数在主周期尺度28 a下呈同相变化。


In order to understand the multi-timescales change characteristics and relations of regional meteorological variables (namely the monthly precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours) in the upper and middle regions of the Huaihe River Basin, data of 19 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014, were analyzed by using the methods of climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall test, morlet wavelet analysis and correlation coefficient. The results showed that: 1) The linear trends of precipitation in annual and four seasons were not significant. For temperature, its linear trend was not significant in summer, but in annual and other three seasons, a significant trend of getting warm was shown. For sunshine hours, its linear trend was not significant in spring, but in annual and other three seasons, a significant trend of getting short was shown; 2) Precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours in annual and four seasons were characterized by alternatively wet and dry, cold and warm, short and long variations for multiple time scales. Differences between the main period scales and their mean change cycles for the three meteorological variables in annual and four seasons were different, some were close while the others had large gap. The main period scales ranged from 2 to 10 years. 3) Multiple correlation coefficient of temperature was smaller than that of precipitation and sunshine hours in annual and four seasons. Multiple correlation coefficient of winter temperature was the smallest, while for temperature in the annual and other seasons, precipitation and sunshine hours, the multiple correlation coefficient were bigger. The absolute value of partial correlation coefficient between precipitation and sunshine hours were the biggest in annual and all seasons. Precipitation and sunshine hours, temperature and precipitation both had inverse relationship in most cases, while, winter temperature and sunshine hours showed the phase change on the main period scales of 28 a. The regional hydrothermal resources distribution can be better understood by the analysis in this article, which could also provide reference for the formulation of agricultural cropping system, water resources planning and flood and drought management.

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基于GIMMS 3g NDVI的近30年中国北部植被生长季始期变化研究
李净,刘红兵,李彩云,李龙
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 620-629.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.016
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基于全球库存建模与绘图研究第三代归一化差值植被指数(GIMMS 3g NDVI)、土地利用和气温降水数据,利用NDVI时间序列谐波分析法(HANTS)重构了中国北部地区原始植被NDVI,用一元六次多项式拟合了植被生长曲线并结合逐像元动态阈值法提取了中国北部地区1983~2012年植被生长季始期并分析了其时空变化及对气温和降水的响应情况。结果表明:GIMMS 3g NDVI具有较长的时序特征和较好的数据质量,经HANTS时间序列谐波分析后能很好的表现植被生长季曲线特征,可用于后续植被生长季的研究。 北部地区生长季始期均值主要集中分布在80~150βd之间,全区30βa平均为111.6βd,东北平原、华北平原、河套平原、新疆天山和阿尔泰地区生长季始期早于其它区域。研究时段内北部地区生长季始期总体上呈提前趋势(R2=0.19),空间上由西北向东北逐渐推移,明显提前的区域主要分布在内蒙古中东部、东北平原、陕西南部和新疆天山的部分地区,明显推迟的区域主要分布在青藏高原高寒地区。 因植被类型的不同和区域的差异,生长季始期对气温和降水的响应程度不同,春季气温是影响生长季始期变化的主要自然因素。


Based on GIMMS 3g NDVI, landuse, temperature, precipitation and vegetation type data, the paper fitted the current year vegetation growing season curve and extracted the yearly green-up day of vegetation growing season in northern China in recent 30 years (from 1983 to 2012), analyzed its spatio-temporal changes and also the relationship between temperature and precipitation. In order to meet the actual vegetation growth, we used harmonic analysis of time-series method to reconstruct vegetation NDVI, dynamic threshold and a sixpolynomial fitting method. Some conclusions were as follows. 1) With longer time-series features and better data quality, GIMMS 3g NDVI data with time-series harmonic data analysis was very good to fit and show the actual characteristics of vegetation growing season curve in northern China and can be well used to further study of vegetation growing season in the future. 2) During the study period, green-up day of vegetation growing season mainly distributed from 80 days to 150 days, and the regional averaged value reached 111.6 days.Green-up day of vegetation growing season in regions such as northeast Plain, north China Plain, Hetao Plain, Tianshan, the Altai were earlier. 3) Green-up day of vegetation growing season in northern China showed an advanced tend in general and gradually transitioned from the northwest to the northeast. The significantly advanced regions mainly distributed in the eastern of Inner Mongolia, northeast China Plain, southern Shanxi and the Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang section area, while the significantly delayed regions were in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau alpine regions. 4) Due to various vegetation types and regional differences and so on,green-up day of vegetation growing season responded to temperature and precipitation distinctly and temperature was the main factor that affecting green-up day of vegetation growing season changes.

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新疆策勒沙漠-荒漠-绿洲典型下垫面小气候空间变化分析
毛东雷,蔡富艳,雷加强,杨雪峰,杨余辉,薛杰
地理科学. 2017, 37 (4): 630-640.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.017
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利用从2010年8月1日至2011年6月30日新疆策勒绿洲-荒漠过渡带及绿洲内部4个观测点的风速、大气相对湿度(RH)、温度、太阳辐射能、光合有效辐射(PAR)同步观测资料,分析了小气候差异并初步探讨产生差异的原因。结果表明:不同空间的下垫面性质对小气候影响明显不同。在8月,半固定沙地、固定沙地和绿洲内部与流沙地前沿相比,日平均风速在2 m高处分别依次降低了42.69%、50.71%和94.32%,日平均风速在10 m高处分别依次降低了7.94%、13.66%和59.59%,这表明植被覆盖度越大,防风阻沙效果越好。夏季植被能够降温增湿,冬季12月份,绿洲内部在0.5 m高处日平均温度依次高于流沙地、半固定沙地、固定沙地1.47℃、1.20℃、2.74℃。4个下垫面的PAR与太阳辐射能变化趋势基本一致,绿洲内部的PAR值相对最小,太阳辐射能在6月达到最高值。夏季晴天在20:00~09:00左右近地表层会出现逆温现象。冬季晴天白天午后易出现大于起沙风的阵风,从流沙前沿到绿洲内部气温逐渐升高,大气相对湿度先逐渐降低后增大。


The comparison and analysis of the wind velocity, air temperature, relative humidity (RH), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and solar radiation at the four meteorological stations were made based on synchronous observation in oasis-desert ecotone and oasis in Cele from 1 August, 2010 to 30 June, 2011. The microclimate differences were analyzed and the reasons for variability were discussed preliminarily. The results show that during August, the daily wind velocity at the height of 2 m in semi-fixed sandy land, fixed sandy land and inner oasis was 42.69%, 50.71% and 94.32% less than that in shifting sandy land, wind velocity at the height of 4 m was 31.7%, 39.25% and 73.64% less than that in shifting sandy land, wind velocity at the height of 10 m was 7.94%, 13.66% and 59.59% less than that in shifting sandy land, which shows that the effects of wind prevention and sand resistance would be better with the increased vegetation cover. The air temperature can be slowed down and the humidity would be increased by plants. In December, the daily temperature at the height of 0.5 m in oasis was higher than shifting sandy land, semi-fixed sandy land and fixed sandy land by 1.47℃, 1.2℃ and 2.74℃. The changing trends for PAR and solar radiation are basically agree in the four landscape types, PAR is the smallest in oasis in four sites, solar radiation was highest in June. In a fine day in summer, there is a phenomenon by temperature inversion near the ground surface between 20:00 and 09:00 at night. In a fine day in winter, gust wind more than sand-driving wind is more likely to arise after the noon in the day. The air temperature decreased gradually from shifting sandy land to oasis, while the PAR first increased and then decreased gradually.

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