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渤海海峡跨海通道建设与中国的地缘政治战略
回顾渤海海峡跨海通道建设研究的历史进程基础上,诠释了地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,梳理了主要的中外地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,明确指出地缘政治战略决定着大国竞争方向。中国是世界上地缘政治环境最复杂的国家,在中国周边长期存在着一个“V”字型地缘政治热点线,“V”字型地缘政治热点线贯穿中国周边的东南亚、东北亚、南亚、北亚、中亚五大地缘政治战略区,构成了中国的地缘政治“大棋局&rdqu. . .
地理科学, 2017 Vol. 37 (1): 1-10    DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.01.001
 
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  2018年, 第38卷, 第12期 刊出日期:2018-12-20 上一期   
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中国留学人员创业园分布及产业特征
姜海宁,张文忠,许树辉,陈秋羽
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1943-1951.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.001
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1158KB)

以《中国留学人员创业年鉴》为基础数据,采用GIS空间分析技术,运用核密度估计法、L函数和最近邻层次聚类分析等方法,分析2006~2015年中国留学人员创业园空间分布规律以及园区产业集聚特征,结果表明:中国留学人员创业园集聚特征显著,而且随着时间的推移,其多中心趋势明显,集聚规模迅速增大,集聚强度呈“先升后降,但总体增大”趋势;主要集聚于长三角、京津冀和珠三角等地区,尤以前两者最显著,且三大集聚区的集聚强度与集聚规模差异明显,其中长三角留创园的集聚规模最大,京津冀集聚强度最高,而珠三角则比较复杂,其在很小空间尺度范围内服从集聚分布,而在较大空间尺度范围内则服从随机分布;基于不同主导产业的中国留学人员创业园依然集中于长三角、京津冀和珠三角等地区,其主导产业分布格局则差异显著,规律性不强。


The spatial distribution and industrial characteristics of Overseas Students Pioneer Parks in China was analyzed by adopting the spatial analysis of GIS and the method of the nuclear density index, L(d) function and nearest neighbor hierarchical clustering algorithm based on data from Returned Chinese Scholars Pioneer Yearbooks from 2006 to 2015. The results show that the Overseas Students Pioneer Parks in China have significant characteristics of spatial concentration. The polycentric trend of Overseas Students Pioneer Parks in China has become increasingly obvious. The agglomeration scale has expanded rapidly and agglomeration degree has gone up first and then decreased as time went on. The Yangtze Delta Region, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Pearl River Delta region are three important concentration areas, especially the former two. There are remarkable differences on the agglomeration degree and agglomeration scale between the above-mentioned three concentration areas. The level of agglomeration scale in the Yangtze Delta Region is the highest, while the centralization degree of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is much higher than the Yangtze Delta Region. In contrast, the level changes of agglomeration degree and agglomeration scale in the Pearl River Delta region are both very complex. It is in small scale that the Overseas Students Pioneer Parks in the Pearl River Delta region obeyed concentrated distribution, while it obeyed random distribution in large scale. The Overseas Students Pioneer Parks of different leading industries in China mainly are still mainly distributed in the Yangtze Delta Region, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the Pearl River Delta region. The difference of the spatial distribution about these leading industries with no obvious regularity is quite significant.

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大连城市绿地可达性对房价影响的差异性分析
杨俊,鲍雅君,金翠,李雪铭,李永化
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1952-1960.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.002
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2088KB)

研究房价、遥感影像等多源数据,采用邻域分析法和地理加权回归模型分析大连市中山区绿地可达性及其与房价之间的空间相关性。结果表明: 房价均价14 745.35元/m2,呈环状分布,由沿海向内陆衰减、桂林街道起中心向外围递减; 研究区内可达性最好的绿地类型是街旁绿地,绿地可达性总体水平最高街道是桂林街道;公园绿地可达性最好的住宅区分布在昆明街道和桃源街道,街旁绿地可达性最好的住宅区分布在桂林街道,附属绿地可达性最好的分布在老虎滩街道,其他绿地可达性最好的分布在桃源街道。 不同类型绿地可达性对房价影响作用程度递减排序为:附属绿地、街旁绿地、公园绿地和其他绿地;附属绿地、街旁绿地和其他绿地与房价呈现空间正相关,随着到达绿地距离降低,房价呈现增长趋势;公园绿地与房价呈现负相关,随着到达公园绿地的距离降低,房价呈现衰减趋势。


This article studies the relationship between urban green space accessibility and house prices in Zhongshan District, Dalian, by near analysis, geographically weighted regression model and multi-source data (e.g., house prices and green space). The results are as follows: First, the average house price is 14 745.35 yuan/m2, and reveals a declining trend from coastal areas to inland areas , except Guilin Street, which demonstrates a local peak of house prices that decreases from the center of the street to its periphery. Second, street park green spaces show the best accessibility , and the overall accessibility of the green space for Guilin Street is the highest; The residential areas of best theme park green space accessibility are located on the Kunming streets and the Taoyuan streets; The residential areas of best street park green space accessibility are located on the Guilin Street; The best accessibility of attached green space is distributed on the Tiger Beach streets; With the best accessibility of other green space distributed on the Taoyuan streets. Third, the influence of green land accessibility on housing prices decreases with green land types as attached green space, street park green space, theme park green space, and other green space; Attached green space, street park green space and other green space show the significant spatial correlation coefficient between green space accessibility and house prices, house prices show a trend of growth as the distance to the green land falls; There is negative correlation between theme park green space and house price, with the arrival of scenic parks green spaces decreased, house prices showed the decrease trend.

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中国城市动画产业时空格局及其成因研究
渠爱雪,孟召宜,杜霖,冯立娅,谢梦,何昭辉
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1961-1969.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.003
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (574KB)

以动画产品为研究对象,利用国家广电总局官方统计数据与新媒体网络数据,对中国城市动画产业发展的时空格局及其成因进行了分析与探讨。首先,从产业规模、产品质量、产品集中度3方面构建动画产业发展评价指标体系,运用熵值法、三角模型法与GIS技术分析中国城市动画产业时空格局,发现:中国动画城市不断增多、发展范围梯度扩散,动画城市多数处于萌芽阶段、整体发展水平较低,动画城市之间差距较大、“二元三核”格局逐渐形成,四大板块差距明显、东中西梯度发展;其次,运用主成分分析和相关分析方法,探讨中国动画产业空间格局成因,结果表明生活质量、包容度、创新精神等内生条件是中国城市动画产业发展的主要影响因素,文化资源、政策支持等外在条件也影响较大。


Taking animation products as the study object, this article aims to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and the cause of animation industry in China cities by coupling statistical data and big data technology. Firstly, an indicator system for the assessment of animation industry development is established from aspects of industrial scale, product quality and product concentration. The spatial-temporal pattern of animation industry in China cities is then analyzed using the methods of entropy, triangular model and GIS. Results show that: 1) The number of animation cities in China is increasing in past decades; furthermore, distribution of the animation industry was diffused from central cities and provincial capital cites to others. In detail, the former played a key role in leading the development of animation industry in China, while some other prefecture-level and county-level cities followed up. 2) Animation industry in most of the cities is in their initial stage with a relatively lower level. On the other hand, difference in the development of animation industry among these cities is obvious, forming a non-equilibrium pattern of "duality, three core and four plates" across the country. That is, 1) Dual structure development. In other words, according to analysis of quantity, quality, or comprehensive scores of animation production, pattern of dual structure has been found, including high level development in municipality, regional central and provincial capital cities such as Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Changsha, and low level development in other cities; 2) Three-core development. We found that cities with high-level and high-yielding animation production are densely distributed in three major megalopolises including the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei district. This phenomenon makes the three urban agglomerations become the "platform" of the important animation cities in China; 3) Four plates. The gradient gap is very obvious among the eastern, middle, west and northeastern China. Concretely speaking, animation cities are accumulated in the eastern China, sparse in the central (northeastern) China and rare in the western China. This result indicates a gradient development of animation industry from eastern to western China. The findings are also proved using Thiel index. According to Thiel index analysis, differences of animation production development in Chinese cities are mainly intra-group differences, supplemented by inter-group differences. However, the intra-group differences are shrinking, while inter-group differences are expanding. The spatial pattern of animation industry development was further attributed using principal component analysis and correlation analysis. Results show that external and internal conditions have become the dual driving forces for the development of urban animation industry in China. As key drivers, the internal conditions refer to creativity, innovation and entrepreneurial environment. The external conditions, such as cultural resources and policy support, still have a great impact on the animation industry development. This indicates China's urban animation industry has entered the period of transformational development. Moreover, the internal conditions mainly affect the scale and the concentration of animation industry. Their influence on the quality of animation industry is not yet obvious, instead. Consequently, the internal conditions are not really the main driving force of animation industry in China cities at this stage. This phenomena could be due to the huge difference in economic level, cultural environment and other factors in these cities in China. To some extent, the formation of the "platform" of animation cities in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin region in China are mirrored in their economic, social level and vitality of these regions.

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中国省际工业生态效率空间分布及影响因素研究
李成宇,张士强,张伟
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1970-1978.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.004
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (629KB)

将中国30省市(不含港、澳、台和西藏地区)作为研究对象,进行省际工业生态效率空间分布及影响因素研究。首先构建中国省际工业生态效率评价指标体系,其次利用DEA-BCC模型结合Malmquist指数对2006~2015年中国30省市在时空两个维度上的工业生态效率进行测算,再次运用Geoda软件分析中国工业生态效率的空间分布特征,最后通过空间误差模型对中国工业生态效率的影响因素进行检验。研究结果表明: 中国工业生态效率虽呈现小幅度下降趋势,但整体效率水平较高;30省市之间存在明显差异性,呈现出东部>中部>西部的分布格局。 中国工业生态效率Malmquist指数增长率水平较高;30省市Malmquist指数均为正向增长,呈现出稳定增长趋势;技术进步效率是Malmquist指数的主要推动力。中国30省市工业生态效率呈现正向空间自相关性,且存在明显的集聚状态,近邻效应显著。 中国省际工业生态效率的主要影响因素有经济发展水平、产业结构、政府规制、技术进步、外商投资和产业集聚。


Taking 30 provinces and cities of China as research objects, the spatial distribution and influencing factors of inter provincial industrial eco-efficiency are studied. The article sets up the evaluation index system of Chinese provincial industrial eco-efficiency. Combined with the Malmquist index model, the DEA-BCC model is used to measure the industrial eco-efficiency spatio-temporally in 2006-2015. And Goda software is used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of industrial ecological efficiency. Finally, the influencing factors of China's industrial eco-efficiency is examed through the spatial error model. The results show that: 1) China's industrial eco-efficiency, although showing a slight downward trend, but the overall high level of efficiency; there are obvious differences between the 30 provinces, showing a distribution pattern of the eastern> Central> West. 2) China's industrial eco-efficiency Malmquist index higher growth rates; Malmquist index of 30 provinces and cities are positive growth, showing a steady growth trend; improve efficiency technology is the main driving force Malmquist Index. 3) China 30 provinces and industrial eco-efficiency presents a positive spatial autocorrelation, and there is a significant gathering state, the neighbor effect is significant. 4) The level of economic development, industrial structure, government regulations, technological progress, foreign investment, and industrial agglomeration are the main factors affecting the eco-efficiency of the provinces.

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中国人才流动的地域模式及空间分布格局研究
聂晶鑫,刘合林
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1979-1987.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.005
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1400KB)

依据教育部直属高校2015届本科毕业生生源与就业数据,采用指标评价与冷热点分析方法,分析升读大学与本科就业两个流动阶段的人才流动地域模式及省域空间分布格局。研究表明:人才流动具有明显的本地空间粘滞性特征,地域模式包括“本地-跃迁”型、“本地-半依附”型和“本地-依附”型。省际层面形成沿东南沿海与长江沿岸分布的“弓形”格局,显示了优势区域的整体粘滞性对人才高地形成的意义。研究指出,把握关键节点、依托城市群来发挥粘滞作用有助于城市推进引智工作。


By looking into the enrollment and employment data of graduates from universities directly administered by China Ministry of Education and with the method of index evaluation and hot-cold spot analysis, this article analyzed the graduates’ regional flowing patterns of two flowing stages of enrolled in the university and employed after graduation, and the resulting spatial distribution at the provincial level. The study found that the flow of talent from the university to study in different stages, can more clearly reveal the characteristics of the geographical space for talents. The local spatial viscosity in different regions dominates the flow of talent, and geopolitical and income factors in subsequent plays a role of regional adjustment. In the two stages, the flow of talent has significant spatial viscous characteristics. The geographical pattern of the flow includes “local-leapfrog” mode, “local-semi adherent” mode and “local-adherent” mode. Under the influence of different factors, the enrollment stage is dominated by “local-(semi) adherent” mode due to the adherence to the geo-social relations, while the employment stage is dominated by “local-leapfrog” type, which is adhered to the multiple possibilities of regional employment opportunities and benefits. From the perspective of the provincial pattern formed by talent flow, however, the spatial distribution of talents at the level of provincial level is more flat, while the phase of employment flow is more polarized in the longitudinal distribution. The “arch” pattern along the southeastern coast and the Yangtze River is characterized in both two stages, and the Yangtze River Delta region belongs to the hot spot of talent. However, because of the lack of provincial integration and linkage, the centralization of talent is not significant enough in the central and western regions, which highlight the important effect of the dominant area’s viscosity in the formation of the high ground of talent. It is suggested that different cities should bring into full play the role of local glutinosity to enhance the work of introducing university intelligence, from the two stages of talent generation and with the help of the strength of the urban agglomeration.

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中国省际市场分割程度的时空格局及影响因素
王建康
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1988-1997.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.006
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (852KB)

基于2001~2015年中国省级面板数据,测算省级市场分割综合指数,揭示区域市场分割时空格局及演变规律,构建空间计量经济模型分析省际市场分割的影响因素。研究发现:全国市场分割程度总体波动式减小,市场分割程度呈现西高东低的趋势;区域市场分割程度具有明显的空间自相关性,且集聚现象越发明显; 国有经济比重在一定程度上加速本地区市场分割过程,而城镇化进程、财政支出、对外贸易、技术差距和基础设施建设则有助于消除本地区市场分割。


Market segmentation is an inevitable phenomenon with regional economy imbalance, the influences of which are two-sided. In the short term, market segmentation can promote regional economic development to some extent, but in the long run, it goes against to efficient allocation of resources which is a barrier to economic transform, and also a challenge to enhance the national comprehensive strength. Based on China's provincial panel data from 2001 to 2015, the comprehensive index of provincial market segmentation is calculated through entropy method from the four aspects of commodity market segmentation, the level of internet development, the degree of marketization of economy and the economy of urban agglomerations. With the visualization of the degree of market segmentation by ArcGIS, the spatial and temporal pattern and evolution law of regional market segmentation are revealed. Then, this article analyses the influence factors of the degree of market segmentation by constructing the spatial econometric model. The results showed that: The degree of market segmentation fluctuation is reduced on the whole, while in the process of integration. At the region level, the degree of market segmentation is decreasing from the west to the east, and the provinces with higher levels mainly distributed in the south and north of the Yangtze River, the provinces with moderate degree distributed in the central region and the provinces with lower degree are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas. The segmentation degree of regional market has obvious spatial autocorrelation, and the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration is becoming more and more remarkable. To sum up, higher level of proportion of state-owned economy, higher the market segmentation index will be, on the contrary, higher urbanization, fiscal expenditure, foreign trade, technology gap and infrastructure construction will be conductive eliminate market segmentation regionally.

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不同犯罪类型受害者报警行为特点及其影响因素分析
柳林,宋广文,肖露子,周素红,宋广钦,龙冬平
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 1998-2005.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.007
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1469KB)

采用问卷调查数据,以理性选择理论为框架,对广州地区扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害四大犯罪类型受害者的报警行为进行了分析。研究发现,扒窃和诈骗的发生率较高,但报警率较低;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的发生率较低,但报警率较高。逻辑回归结果表明,损失的财产价值是影响扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害受害者报警行为的共同因素,损失越大,报警的可能性越大。此外,户口状态对扒窃报警行为有影响;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的报警行为还受个人客观属性和主观感知的影响。表明西方的理性选择理论框架适用于中国的报警率研究,但在选择具体的衡量指标时应更慎重;在对用公安部门的数据进行犯罪空间分析时,应注意报警率的影响。


Crime data, provided by public security departments, is an important source of research data for crime geography. However, not all victims would report to the police. The relationship between data and the reality of crime and the mechanism of victims reporting behavior are still not covered in China. Based on the theory of general rational choice, we carried out a victim survey in Guangzhou to investigate the crime reporting behavior of theft from person, fraud, burglary and violence and their influence of crime spatial pattern revealed by police data. Results show that the occurrence rates of fraud and theft from person are relatively high but reporting rate is low, while the occurrence rates of burglary and violence are low but reporting rates are high. Logistic models reveal that loss value is the key factor in affecting crime reporting behavior for the four types of crime. The bigger value the loss is, the higher possibility to report crime to the police there will be. What’s more, Hukou status would influence the theft reporting. The reporting behavior of burglary and violence would be affected by victims’ personal objective attributes and subjective sense. This study has approved that the general rational choice theory is applicable to China, but some notice should be taken care of when selecting indicators. Spatial variations for reporting rate of theft from person and burglary may exist, which reminds us that we should pay attention to the influence of crime reporting rate when using the official crime data.

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城市再开发背景下的社区感知——基于内隐联想测验的研究
王敏,朱竑,王盈盈,丘小静,曹伟,朱绘霖
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2006-2013.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.008
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (440KB)

以广州市永庆坊为例,研究采用内隐联想测验法、问卷以及质性访谈相结合的方法,探究其改造前后社区相关主体的社区感知,旨在探讨社区空间变化背后相关主体的感知态度差异。研究结果揭示了社区感知的外显态度和内隐态度的分离效应,且外显态度表现的差异性强于内隐态度。参与者对永庆坊改造前后的连贯性和积极性存在外显感知态度的显著差异,在内隐态度结果上,参与者对永庆坊改造前后的连贯性和积极性并未存在显著差异。实验结果表明:物质层面的更新并非引起居民等主体对改造热议的根本原因,社区更新重点应关注利益主体对权利、参与权的诉求,关注其利益分配的合理性。诚然,社区改造规划中不仅应重视公众参与和调查,也应深入挖掘社区公众对于社区改造的内隐感知态度,以提高社区规划的效力。研究采用内隐联想测验的神经科学认知方法对景观感知的探讨,以期开拓人文地理学研究方法神经科学转向的新方向。


The redevelopment of inner city has been an important way to remodel the urban current social space in China, which also triggers to the potential negative influence of the community residents while activating the old city and promoting the stable development of the city. Importantly, the redevelopment of inner city has impact on the sense of community of residents and their related subjects. Implicit association test is an important social cognitive method of psychology and has been used in the field of social cognition such as implicit attitude and implicit stereotype. Based on the background of urban redevelopment, taking Yongqing Square in Guangzhou as an example, this study used implicit association test, questionnaires and qualitative interviews to explore the community-related subjects’ sense of community before and after the transformation, and aimed to explore their differences in perceived attitudes. First of all, after the assessment of the questionnaire, the experimental materials used positive words and coherent words as experimental “attribute words” and photographs as “conceptual words” to interpret the participants’ emotional experience visually. Second, questionnaires were used to measure the participants’ explicit perceptions before and after the transformation of Yongqing Square. Implicit association test was used to measure participants’ implicit cognition of community renovation in Yongqing Square. Participants were required to follow the IAT procedural guidelines prepared by the E-prime version 2.0 psychological experiment statistical software to complete the classification test tasks about transformation of Yongqing Square. In addition, this study, through qualitative interview, understood the participants’ views on the redevelopment of Yongqing Square and their experimental experience. The results of the study revealed the separation effect of explicit and implicit attitudes in sense of community, and the difference of explicit attitudes was stronger than that of implicit attitudes. There were significant differences of perceived attitudes in the coherence and positivity of the participants before and after the redevelopment of Yongqing Square in the explicit perception level, and they expressed the affirmation of Yongqing community redevelopment. At the implicit level, participants’ attitudes had no significant difference between the coherence and positivity of the Yongqing Square before and after the redevelopment, which showed a more neutral implicit attitude, indicating that participants believe the transformation of Yongqing Square had little impact on the coherence and enthusiasm of the community. The experimental results showed that the change in the material level was not the real reason why the residents and other subjects were dissatisfied with the transformation. The community renewal should pay more attention to the rights and participation rights of stakeholders, and focus the rationality of the distribution of benefits. Therefore, not only the public participation and investigation should be emphasized in the community transformation planning, but also the implicit perception of the community for the transformation of community should be tapped in order to improve the effectiveness of community planning. Moreover, the article uses the neuroscience cognitive method of implicit association test to study the perception of landscape, which is a new attempt to open up the new direction of neuroscience turn of human geography research methods.

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1998~2013年中国地级单元制造业规模与结构高级度协调发展的时空特征
李建新,杨永春,蒋小荣,王宝君,张薇
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2014-2023.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.009
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基于制造业企业级数据,采用产业结构高级度(UPG)指数、GIS、协调度评价模型等方法考察1998~2013年中国地级单元制造业规模与结构高级度协调发展的时空特征。结果表明:制造业规模格局始终呈东部沿海导向下的核心-边缘模式,沿海三大城市群规模优势明显,西南、西北以及青藏地区规模最小。制造业结构高级度格局总体呈“马赛克”式的混合分布模式,东北、黄河中游等传统工业基地的UPG指数下降明显,长三角、珠三角、山东半岛等沿海地区则不断提升。制造业规模与结构高级度间的协调度水平稳定上升,总体由中度失调进入濒临失调阶段,但协调度水平及其成长格局具有“东--西”阶梯式降低特征。


With the status of "world factory" for China, the coordination between scale and structure of regional manufacturing will be the realistic demand and strategic direction of China's sustainable development in the future. Supported by the research samples of 342 prefecture-level units and enterprise-level data, this article makes a deep analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the coordination for the manufacturing scale and structure in China during the period of 1998-2013 by means of industrial structure up-grade (UPG) index, coordination evaluation model and GIS. The main conclusions of this study are as follows. First, the scale pattern of China's prefecture-level manufacturing industry has always been a core-periphery model oriented by eastern coastal: there is a significant discrepancy in the east and west of ‘Hu Huanyong’ line for the scale, that are the obvious superiorities of three core coastal urban agglomerations (including “the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)”, the “Bohai rim” and “the Pearl River Delta (PRD)”) and the smallest scale of southwest, northwest and Qinghai-Tibet region. Second, there is no obvious gradient attenuation in the spatial pattern of the UPG index, while it showed a mosaic mixed distribution model with an evident decline in traditional heavy industrial bases such as northeast, middle reaches of the Yellow River and a consecutive upgrade in the eastern coastal area especially YRD, PRD, and Shandong Peninsula. Third, it’s an increasing positive correlation between the manufacturing scale and UPG, but their coordination degree has always been at a low level with the transition from moderately unbalanced phase of 1998 to the verge of maladjustment phase in 2013 and the spatial feature for its growth pattern a stepped decrease from the east to the central part then to the west.

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基于POI数据的西安市快递自提点空间格局及空间关系研究——以菜鸟驿站为例
李钢,杨兰,贺建雄,刘倩,陈曦亮,薛淑艳
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2024-2030.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.010
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基于西安市菜鸟驿站和中国邮政速递的POI(point of interest,兴趣点)数据,综合运用数理统计、文本词频分析、空间分析等方法,解析菜鸟驿站的依托组织形式与服务对象类型,空间分布特征与区位选择特征,及其与中国邮政速递的空间竞合关系。研究发现:增菜鸟驿站依托类型以商品销售型为主,社会服务型和个体店铺型次之;其服务对象以社区为主,商业街区、大学城次之;菜鸟驿站空间上呈现“中心城区多,周边区县少”的“内密外疏”格局,并沿东北-西南走向分布; 区位选择特征,大尺度表现为以钟楼为中心,随距离增加,驿站数量呈现出低--低的分布规律;小尺度则在与服务对象出入口距离区间[100,300]内存在二维正态分布; 菜鸟驿站与目标对象直线可达距离平均位于200 m范围以内,且街区活力点与其服务对象主体相适应; 邮政站点与菜鸟驿站均由中心城区向外围区县扩张式发展,前者分布范围更广,二者在地理邻近竞争二者中趋于协同发展。


In the internet economic era, with E-commerce being greatly promoting express industry development, express delivery pickup point has become an important place for urban residents to visit, which is worth studying from the perspective of logistics geography. Based on POI data of Cainiao Station and China Post from Xi’an, using mathematical statistics, text word frequency analysis, spatial analysis and other methods, this paper analyzes Cainiao Station’s dependent organization form and service object types, spatial distribution features and the location selection, as well as the spatial organization relationship with the China Post. The findings are as follows: 1) Cainiao Station mainly depends on the retail shops, social service sites and individual stores; Its service objectives are mainly community-based, also including commercial blocks and university towns; 2) There is an ‘inner dense and outer sparse’ feature in the pattern of ‘more in central urban, less in outer rural’, and the distribution direction is along the northeast and southwest. 3) As for the location selection characteristics, on the large scale view, taking Bell Tower as the center point, the number of the pickup station is in a low-high-low pattern with the increase of the distance. On the small scale view, it has two-dimensional normal distribution in the distance [100,300] meter to the entry and exit of the service objects; 4) The distance between Cainiao Station and service object is within the range of 200 m, and the block activity points are suitable to the service objects; 5) The expanding mode of the postal sites and Cainiao Station is from the center of cities into the peripheral counties with the former has a high distribution and wider radiation range, and spatial relation of them presents a geographic-adjacent-based coordinated competition development trend. According to the above research results, several optimization suggestions are proposed. In addition, under the theoretical perspectives of consumer society and space production, mining its detection function of urban growth and population distribution, and examining its connection with the changes in mass consumer behavior and mode, and exploring its social and cultural significance will be important research directions in the future.

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基于“功能-能力”框架的中国多维福祉测评及区域均衡分析
王圣云,翟晨阳,罗颖,谭嘉玲
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2031-2039.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.011
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基于“功能-能力”框架构建中国多维福祉测评指标体系,对1995~2014年中国省级区域多维福祉水平、空间差异以及功能与能力福祉的区域均衡类型进行研究发现:中国功能福祉与能力福祉水平均有明显提升。四大区域功能福祉水平由高到低依次为东部、东北、中部和西部地区,能力福祉水平东部最高、中部最低,西部与东北较为接近。整体来看,中国功能福祉的省际差异缩小,能力福祉的省际差异有所扩大。中国各省份功能福祉与能力福祉的发展大致经历了“功能福祉主导→能力福祉主导→较高水平协调”的不断优化演进过程,提高能力福祉向功能福祉的转换效率是促进中国综合福祉提升及其协调发展的关键。


Constructing the index system for evaluating on China’s multidimensional well-being based on framework of “function-capability”, studying its level and the spatial difference during 1995-2014 and the evolution of equilibrium types of development about function and capability, it was found that: 1) From 1995 to 2014, China's function well-being and capability well-being were all significantly improved. Before 2000, the level of function well-being was low and conversion efficiency from capability to function was poor. After 2000, the level of function well-being in China has been above the level of capability well-being, and has continued to improve. However, there was no obvious increase in capability well-being until 2006. 2) In China, the levels of function well-being in the four regions from high to low in turn for eastern, northeast, central and western regions, the highest level of capabilityis eastern, the lowest is central, and western is close to northeast. As for inter-provincial comparison, the functional well-being of Beijing and Shanghai was obviously higher than other provinces. Obviously China’s function well-being showed eastern superiority. With higher levels of capability well-being in Beijing, Shanghai and Qinghai Provinces, China’s capability well-being didn’t show a gradual diminishing spatial pattern from east to west. 3) As a whole, provincial spatial difference of our country about function well-being is reduce, while the provincial spatial difference of capability well-being is first increase to reduce. Before 2005, the level of function well-being in Beijing and Shanghai has risen sharply, thus, inter-provincial difference in function well-being have been widened. After 2005, as the functional well-being of other provinces developed rapidly, spatial difference tended to shrink. As for capability well-being, the provincial difference had been narrowed before 1997, and had been gradually expanded in 1997-2011, since 2011, the provincial differencehas been slowly narrowing. 4) The development of function and capability have experienced a certain period about “function dominance-capability dominance-higher level coordination”. The timing of the types about coordination varies from province to province, but the relationship between function well-being and capability well-being is constantly being optimized. Improving the transfer efficiency from capability well-being to function well-being is the key to improving the well-being and its coordinated development of our country.

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超大城市生产性服务业空间分工及其效应分析——以北京为例
宋昌耀,罗心然,席强敏,李国平
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2040-2048.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.012
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为探究超大城市生产性服务业空间分工机理及效应,基于2006~2015年北京各区数据和地区相对专业化指数等方法分析北京生产性服务业空间分工特征,研究发现,北京生产性服务业呈现从中心到外围专业化程度提升、多样化程度下降的趋势,且动态来看,专业化水平都有所提升,空间分工趋势愈加明显;高级生产性服务业集聚在多样化地区,交通运输业分散在专业化地区,房地产服务业是多数地区的专业化产业。空间面板计量模型检验表明,北京各区之间生产性服务业空间溢出效应明显,联动协调发展水平较高;生产性服务业各细分产业的空间分工效应与产业特性高度相关,交通服务业呈现负向空间溢出,金融、科技、信息、房地产等服务业存在正向溢出,而商务服务业溢出效应不显著。


Spatial division of producer services and its effects play important roles in spatial organization and economic growth, especially in megacities. As the main space for division in producer services at the urban level, megacities have developed specialized and diversified areas driven by factors such as cost and market. In order to measure the rationality of the spatial division, the effects of spatial spillover can be used as an efficient approach, and industrial heterogeneity significantly affects this kind of spatial division and its spillover. Based on the mechanism of spatial division of producer services, the paper utilized the panel data of producer services from 2006 to 2015 in Beijing and Krugman Specialization Index to analyze the characteristics of producer service. The results suggest that industrial division between core and peripheral was remarkable. It is also found that the specialization increased and diversity declined from center to periphery area, with the trend of which was strengthened from the dynamic perspective. It is further found that high-order producer services agglomerated in diversification areas, transportation services dispersed in specialized areas, and most districts specialized on the real estate industry. Moreover, spatial econometric models were used to estimate the spatial spillover effect of producer services. The significant spatial division indicates that the linkage and coordination of producer services among different districts in Beijing were high. Finally, it seems that the effect of spatial division of different producer services was highly related to their industrial characteristics, with negative spillover effects of transportation, positive effects of finance, technology, information and real estate industries but insignificant effects of the commercial service industry.

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基于多目标改进免疫算法和GIS的养老机构空间配置优化研究——以上海市虹口区为例
程敏,崔晓
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2049-2057.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.013
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综合考虑政府、居民、投资者3方需求,构建带约束多目标的养老机构配置优化模型,基于改进免疫算法和GIS技术,对上海市虹口区养老机构的配置优化问题进行研究,分析研究区现有养老机构在空间分布和规模配置上的合理性,提出优化配置方案。研究表明:研究区现有养老机构数量缺口较大、部分养老机构偏离最佳区位、规模与需求存在较大差距;3所位于江湾镇街道的养老机构在现有区位运行欠合理;为充分满足居民养老需求,需在虹口区南部地区增设15所养老机构;通过与一般免疫算法、遗传算法、粒子群算法、模拟退火算法得到的优化结果对比可知,改进免疫算法在此优化问题中的求解效率分别提高45%,38.89%,21.43%,46.34%,求解精度分别提高1.61%,2.73%,5.80%,6.91%。


In recent years, the population is ageing rapidly in Shanghai. Increases in the older population are generating demand for a wide range of elder care services. Residential care homes are the main places for elderly care service. The configuration rationality of residential care homes makes a difference to sustainable urban development and the construction of a harmonious society. However, some issues in the configuration of residential care facilities such as unreasonable spatial layout and insufficient service have become increasingly acute with the growth of the geriatric population. It is important to optimize the layout and number of residential care facilities to ensure the equity and efficiency of public services. In this paper, a method for optimizing the layout and quantity of residential care homes together is studied. Considering the demand of government, residents and investors, a configuration optimization model with multi-objective and constraints for residential care homes is constructed based on maximizing the government equity, maximizing configuration efficiency, minimizing residents traveling cost and maximizing the investors’ returns. Then, the software GIS and the improved immune algorithm are used for the configuration optimization of the residential care homes in Hongkou District of Shanghai. According to the calculating results, the configuration rationality of current residential care homes is analyzed and a new configuration scheme is put forward. After comparing the results of the proposed method with those of simulated annealing algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, genetic algorithm, traditional immune algorithm and the existing scheme, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method is verified validly. The results show that the scale and numbers of residential care homes still cannot satisfy the demand of the elderly in Hongkou District. Furthermore, most of the current residential care homes in Hongkou District deviate from the optimal locations. They may increase the residents' travel cost, weaken the government equity and configuration efficiency, hinder the increase of investment returns and need to be further optimized. According to the optimize results, the rationality of 3 residential care homes that are located in Jiangwanzhen Street should be further improved and 15 new residential care homes should be built in the south of Hongkou District to satisfy the demands of the elderly population. In addition, the computing efficiency of the improved immune algorithm is higher than that of simulated annealing algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, genetic algorithm, basic immune algorithm by 45%, 38.89%, 21.43%, 46.34% respectively, and the antibody affinity value of improved immune algorithm is better than that of the simulated annealing algorithm, particle swarm algorithm, genetic algorithm, basic immune algorithm respectively by 1.61%, 2.73%, 5.80%, 6.91%. The proposed method improves the basic immune algorithm from two aspects including selection operator and mutation operator. Hence, the computation procedure is more efficient and accurate than that of traditional immune algorithm. Due to considering varies stakeholders’ requirements, the configuration scheme is reasonable. The method can support knowledge-based policy-making and planning of residential care facilities. The optimized results also can provide references for scientific decision-making on residential care in Hongkou District of Shanghai.

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生计安全研究的可视化分析
苏飞,应蓉蓉,黄建毅,李博,朱赛颖,莫潇杭
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2058-2065.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.014
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以Web of science 核心库中1991~2016年间收录主题为“livelihood security”的文献为基础,应用CiteSpace软件,采取突现词分析、关键词共现分析、文献共被引分析等方法对生计安全研究进行可视化分析。研究发现,干旱、健康、妇女、艾滋病、粮食安全、难民等是生计安全研究的前沿领域;生计安全研究热点主要包括生计结果类、生态环境类、生计策略类和重点地区类;生计安全研究的知识基础主要包括粮食安全、海洋资源、气候变化适应性等研究领域;从研究内容来看,中国生计安全研究主要包括自然资源与粮食安全、自然灾害与生计安全、快速城镇化与生计安全、气候变化与生计安全等4个方面。


With the change of global environment and the rapid development of economic globalization, strengthening the protection and restoration of ecosystem and improving the livelihood of residents have become the focus of the government and academia. At present, analysis research on the livelihood security is of great significance in the implementation of Chinese poverty alleviation and of national development plans. However, so far, there are few reports on systematic review of livelihood security studies using the visualization method of knowledge mapping at home and abroad. Therefore, this article firstly takes literature which focuses on “livelihood security” included in the core database of Web of Science from 1991 to 2016 as the basis, then applies the software CiteSpace, and uses emergent word algorithm to obtain emergent word map of the livelihood security research field. The study finds that from 1991 to 2016, the emerging words in the field of livelihood security research mainly included drought, healthy, women, AIDS, food security, refugees, etc., and it showes the characteristics of survival, development and adaptation in stages. Secondly, this article researches the studies focus and development trend of livelihood security through word frequency analysis and the frequency of high frequency subject words. Four hotspots in livelihood security are concluded in this study: 1) Livelihood outcome: it mainly includes food security, vulnerability, poverty and impact; 2) Ecological environment: it mainly consists of climate change and agriculture; 3) Livelihood strategies: it largely contains management, conservation and adaptation; 4) Key areas: it is mostly about Africa. Then, this article adopts the method of literature co-citation analysis and cluster analysis to analyze the knowledge basis of livelihood security research field. It is found that the adaptability of food security, marine resources and climate change together constitute the frontier and hot area of livelihood security research. Finally, CiteSpace is used to analyze the research literature on English livelihood security published by Chinese scholars. It is concluded that the research of China's livelihood security includes four aspects: natural resources and food security, natural disasters and livelihood security, rapid urbanization and livelihood security, climate change and livelihood security. In conclusion, this article analyzes livelihood security research in 27 years, including research hot spot trends and knowledge base, etc. by using information visualization software CiteSpace. This is a new attempt of livelihood security research review, which can reveals the overall characteristics of livelihood security research more scientifically, accurately and fully, so as to provide a scientific reference in the further development of livelihood security research both at home and abroad.

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浙江陆路交通对区域旅游空间结构及发展的影响研究
李一曼,修春亮,孔翔
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2066-2073.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.015
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基于加权平均出行时间、“板块旅游”空间结构理论、空间计量模型等方法,探讨1996~2016年浙江陆路交通对区域旅游空间结构及发展影响。研究表明:交通路网建设带来城市可达性提升,其地理过程、格局呈现围绕“四大都市区”轴带放射状“Π型”演变特征。交通网络效应下,新增景区密集分布于邻近中心城市主要对外交通要道两侧,耦合于可达性时空演变,且“板块”旅游地域结构特征显著。空间计量结果发现,交通区位、经济基础、资源禀赋等因素不同程度影响地域旅游经济发展。


Taking Zhejiang Province as the research object, using the weighted average travel time, plate “tourism” theory of spatial structure, spatial econometric model, and based on the “accessibility” perspective or clues to explore the influence of land transportation network evolution on spatial structure and organization of regional tourism and tourism economic development during 1996 to 2016. The results show that: 1) With the construction and improvement in the road and railway network of the county level road, which brings significant time-space compression effect, node cities accessibility have varying degrees of improvement, also have basically entered the “2-4 hour circle”, and its geographical process and pattern appeared around the four metropolitan area shaft radial “Π” spatial structure dynamic evolution. 2) With the effect of traffic network, more than 4A scenic spots are densely distributed over the 10 km buffer zone of the main central traffic routes in the neighboring central cities, and the kernel density and accessibility of spatial and temporal evolution showed a high degree of coupling. At the same time, tourism regional structure system evolved into “plate mode” form. 3) Compare with OLS model, SLM model and SEM model, the regression model of SEM model with the best fitting result was selected. The results show that traffic location, resource endowments, economic base of multiple factors in different degree of nonlinear effects of regional tourism economic development. Among them, traffic location has the greatest impact, followed by economic base, resource endowment and reception capacity, but industrial structure has not passed the significant level test. 4) Spatial econometric model shows that county tourism economic development has spatial autocorrelation. Therefore, transportation infrastructure as a material carrier and path channels to play the role of spatial linkage effect should be taken into considered, so as to promote regional tourism cooperation and integration development, all of that is in the under the situation that local governments is increasingly emphasizing the status and role of tourism in the development of regional economy. 5) The research results reveal the logic of the development of regional transportation infrastructure which brings about the change of accessibility and tourism spatial structure, and explains the important role of traffic for the development of tourism economy.

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土地利用视角下的轨道站点客流预测——以深圳市为例
孔祥夫,杨家文
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2074-2083.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.016
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1105KB)

从土地利用视角分析轨道站点客流的影响因素,基于直接估计模型,选择不同类型用地楼板面积、公交线路数量、站点中心性、站点可达性4个变量建立非线性回归函数,分析不同类型用地客流生成率与站点可达性之间的衰减规律。结果表明: 相比于线性衰减规律,客流生成率随站点可达性的降低更符合指数衰减规律,用地距离地铁站0~0.5 km时客流生成率下降最快。单位面积各类用地客流生成率由大到小依次为:交通用地>办公用地>商业用地≈城中村>工业用地>居住用地>其他用地。客流生成率受站点可达性影响强度由大到小依次为:商业用地>办公用地>交通用地>其他用地>居住用地>城中村>工业用地。


Analyzing the numerical relationship between transit ridership and land use is significant to station location, land use planning and rail transit property development. Although there have been a growing number of studies on long-term ridership forecasting, limited effort has been made to investigate the impacts of different land use types on ridership and ridership decay rules. Two problems are considered in this paper. First, how do the land development intensity of different types influence station ridership? Second, what are the relationships between the walking distance to the station and trip rates for different land types? This paper attempts to answer the questions based on the direct ridership model. A two-step nonlinear regression model is established and the parameters are estimated by the Gauss-Newton method. Four variables including floor area of different land types, bus lines, centrality and walking distance to the station are included in the model. The first-step model separates the ridership produced by the land use from the total ridership. In the second-step model, two types of distance-decay function, exponential-decay function and linear-decay function, are considered. The parameters of exponential model and linear model are calculated according to . Smart card data of 94 subways in Shenzhen are used to valid the model. The results are: 1) Compared to the linear decay tendency, the decay rule is more in line with the exponential form; 2) Trip rates of different land types ordering from large to small are: transport land > commercial land > official land ≈ urban village > industrial land > residential land > other land; 3) The impacts of walking distance on the trip rate ordering from large to small are: commercial land > official land > transport land > other land > residential land > urban village > industrial land. Due to considering the factors of land use and walking distance to the station, the proposed model provides a quite accurate prediction of the station ridership. Ridership forecasting is crucial for the analysis of project viability and urban rail transit planning. With the help of estimated ridership, subway planners can proactively judge whether a site is suitable for setting transit station. The decay rules of different land types can provide reference for property development around the stations and travel analysis.

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南京城市住宅“售租比”时空格局与分异机理
宋伟轩,陈培阳,陈浩,尹上岗
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2084-2092.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.017
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (4671KB)

“售租比”是国内外学者测度房价健康水平或泡沫风险的关键指标之一。利用中国房价行情平台提供的南京居住小区2009~2017年期间分季度平均售租价格信息,采用GIS空间分析等方法,考察南京中心城区“售租比”空间格局与演变过程。研究发现: 城市整体“售租比”随房价波动变化明显,2016~2017年间快速增长;分异度先降后升,以城区内部差异为主,城区间差异越来越小; 高“售租比”小区多集聚于河西新城、江北新区等房价增速较快的投资热点区域。南京住宅“售租比”过快上升和空间离散加剧,意味着城市房价快速增长的合理性在降低。从地租视角解读,绝对地租决定着城市整体“售租比”的高低,级差地租和垄断地租则影响着城市内部“售租比”的空间分异。“售租比”可为判断城市内部房价相对合理性提供重要依据,但能否通过该指标准确预判城市房价风险程度及空间格局尚有待深入研究。


Housing price in Chinese big cities has been a focus issue in the society, which is not only high, but also ever-rising. While, the ‘Price-to-rent Ratio’ is one of the key indicators for scholars to measure housing price whether in healthy level or risk of a bubble. The study obtains the information of average sales and rent price of residential communities during 30 quarters from 2009 to 2017 in Nanjing, on the basis of “big data” about housing transaction provided by China Housing Price Market Platform. With the method of GIS spatial analysis and differentiation index, it investigates the spatial pattern and transformation process of price-to-rent ratio, as well as city housing price risk and spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of central urban area in Nanjing. The study finds that: 1) the overall price-to-rent ratio changes obviously with the fluctuation of housing price, which presents a rapid growth during 2016-2017; 2) the degree of differentiation falls first and rises later, and the differentiation in urban area is the main reason, whereas the differentiation between the inner and outer urban areas becomes increasingly blurred; 3) residential communities with a high price-to-rent ratio are primarily in the new urban areas, including Hexi and Jiangbei, where are the investment hot spots with rapid growth of housing price. The housing price risk is rising sharply in Nanjing and there is a trend of spatial generalization, which is judged from the phenomenon of extraordinary rise in price-to-rent ratio of urban houses, intensification of spatial dispersion, and housing price and rent being reversed for the first time. Based the land rent theory, it interprets the phenomenon of the price-to-rent ratio rising and spatial heterogeneity intensifying. It is the capacity of comprehensive allocation of resource elements in cities (absolute rent) that decides the overall housing price and rent level of the city; the urban spatial structure and factor input difference (differential rent) decides the spatial distribution pattern of housing price and price-to-rent ratio; while, the scarcity of high quality space and public services (monopoly rent) is likely to lead to the multi-scale space of the price-to-rent ratio. Finally, it analyzes the possibility of judging the degree of urban house price risk by using price-to-rent ratio. It suggest that the rapid rise in housing prices in Nanjing is worth vigilant; and especially in 2016-2017, both the price-to-rent ratio and the degree of space dispersion climbed to the highest value of history, due to the house prices having risen sharply and rents fall at the same time, which shows that the overall housing price risk is increasing.

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杭州商业街道空间布局形态关键要素对周边风环境的影响
应小宇,阚琪
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2093-2099.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.018
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1231KB)

利用基于计算流体力学(CFD)理论的数值模拟软件,在不影响街道连续性面貌的前提下,通过控制变量法分别改变街道贴线率、街道界面密度、街道高宽比3个关键要素的数值来观察街道风环境的变化情况。结论主要有: 街道内的风速大小随着街道贴线率的增大呈抛物线趋势变化,先增大后减小,在街道贴线率接近70%时,城市街道内风速达到最大; 随着界面密度的不断减小,城市街道内各个测点的风速变化的幅度越来越大,这样会让在其中行走的行人感受到强烈的风速变化,舒适度大为下降; 城市街道内的平均风速和街道高宽比成反比例关系。


With a rapid urbanization in Asia, the high-density new urban-center districts have already changed the microclimate in the city. Because of the using characters of building, the commercial streets which have emerged massively making a large number of pedestrians appear, pedestrian comfort in the commercial streets of the new urban-center districts requires more attention. Different street spatial layout will lead to change the internal wind environment in it and then affect the pedestrian comfort. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are used to study the correlation between the three main street spatial layout factors, which are near-line rate, street interface density and street aspect ratio, under the simulation of relevant weather conditions. The results are mainly the following three points, first, the wind speed within the street change with the increase in the near-line rate like a parabola trend, and the wind speed reaches its peak about at a near-line rate of 70%. In that cases, it’s conducive to ventilation. Second, as the street interface density decreases, the variation of the wind speed of each measuring point in the city streets is getting bigger and bigger, and then the pedestrian walking in it will feel a strong wind speed change and the comfort is greatly reduced. Thirdly, the wind speed in the city streets is inversely proportional to the street aspect ratio. These conclusions will provide an important reference and evaluation basis for urban designers at the beginning of the design to effectively avoid future wind environmental problems.

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长江经济带空气质量指数的时空特征及驱动因素分析 ——基于贝叶斯空间计量模型的实证
柏玲,姜磊,周海峰,陈忠升
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2100-2108.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.019
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (944KB)

基于2015年长江经济带126个城市空气质量监测数据,首先利用探索性空间数据分析方法揭示了空气质量指数(AQI)的时空演变特征,然后采用贝叶斯空间滞后模型探讨了长江经济带空气质量指数的社会经济驱动因素。研究结果表明: 长江经济带年AQI在空间上整体具有东高西低,长江以北高长江以南低的分布特点,具有明显的空间集聚特征。空气污染严重的热点地区主要集中长三角城市群的江苏省、浙北地区、皖北大部分地区以及上海市。空气质量较好的冷点地区则主要集中在云南省、四川的攀枝花以及贵州的大部分地区。长江经济带AQI在季节上呈现冬春高、夏秋低的季节变化趋势。总体而言,四季的高值集聚主要分布在鄂皖苏,低值集聚主要分布在云贵地区。 贝叶斯空间滞后模型回归结果显示,长江经济带空气质量存在显著的空间溢出效应。此外,模型结果证实了“环境库兹涅兹曲线”假说;FDI回归系数为正,支持了“污染避难所”假说;人口密度、公路客运量均是导致空气污染加剧的重要因素,而第三产业比重和建成区绿化覆盖率增加有利于长江经济带空气质量的改善。


Based on a cross-sectional data at the city level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper firstly employs the exploratory spatial data analysis method to investigate the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of air quality index (AQI) of 126 cities in 2015, and then applies the Bayesian spatial econometric model to explore the socio-economic driving factors of air quality index of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The findings are the following: 1) The distribution of the annual average AQI values in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibits a significant spatial cluster pattern, specifically high AQI values in the north and low AQI values in the south. Moreover, the hot spot analysis results show that the most polluted areas are mainly Jiangsu province, the northern Zhejiang province, Shanghai and the most areas of northern Anhui province while Yunnan province, Panzhihua city of Sichuan and the most areas of Guizhou province show better air quality. 2) Regarding the seasonal characteristics of AQI values in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it also shows a typical seasonal characteristic, specifically, high AQI values in both winter and spring, and low AQI values in both summer and autumn. Overall, during the whole year high AQI values are mainly concentrated on Hubei province, Anhui province and Jiangsu province while low AQI values on Yunnan province. 3) The Bayesian spatial lag model indicates that the urban AQI values of the Yangtze River Economic Belt show significant spatial spillover effects. Moreover, the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis has been verified, indicating that as GDP per capita increases, air quality worsens. However, when GDP per capita continues to increase, air quality becomes better. Besides, the coefficient of FDI variable is significant and positive, indicating the pollution haven hypothesis. Finally, the increase in population density and highway passenger transportation are important driving factors worsening air quality while the higher proportion of the tertiary industry and green coverage ratio improvements contribute to improving air quality of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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科尔沁沙地风沙与湖泊景观演变及影响因素分析
杜会石,哈斯额尔敦,李爽,赵艺源,孙小旭
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2109-2117.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.020
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (7814KB)

以科尔沁沙地为研究区,基于1975~2015年中等分辨率卫星影像,采用景观格局指数计算及数理统计分析方法,研究该区近40 a来沙地与湖泊景观格局的变化过程,并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明,近40 a科尔沁沙地风沙地貌覆盖面积呈减少趋势,年均变化率-0.31%,而灌草丛沙丘地、抛物线形沙丘等固定半固定型沙丘面积增加,沙地逆转化趋势明显。沙地景观蔓延度整体下降了2.13,优势度增加了16.55,说明科尔沁沙地斑块连通性与多样性降低。湖泊群面积净减61.24 km2,斑块数减少了66个,湖泊群质心朝ESE方向迁移了35.76 km,湖泊景观分离度呈下降趋势,而集群性有所增加、景观演变趋于稳定。气候因素和人类活动因素是科尔沁沙地演化的驱动因素,尤其社会经济和政策因素可短时间内促进沙地景观的演变过程。


The Horqin sandy land is located in the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in northern of China. The development of sandy land is affected by the interaction of wind and water, and the evolution of Lake Group landscape is closely related to the process of aeolian sand surface evolution. The Horqin sandy land as the study area, 1975-2015 medium resolution satellite images based on the landscape pattern index calculation and statistical analysis methods, focus on the change process of lake and sand landscape pattern, and analyze the influence factors in recent 40 years. The results showed that: in recent 40 years, Horqin desert landform coverage area showed a decreasing trend, the average annual rate of change -0.31%, while shrub dunes, parabolic dunes fixed semi fixed dune type sand area increased significantly, inverse transformation trend. The landscape spread degree of sandy land decreased by 2.13 and the dominance increased by 16.55, indicating that the connectivity and diversity of patches in Horqin sandy land decreased. Lakes area net reduction is 61.24 km2, the number of patches decreased by 66, the lake group centroid toward ESE 3 576 km2 migration, the separation of lake landscape degree decreased, while the cluster of lake landscape increased, landscape evolution tends to be stable, and the sandy land and Lake landscape in the dynamic evolution process. The factors of economic and human activities are the driving factors of the evolution of Horqin sandy land, especially social economic factors and policy factors can promote or inhibit the evolution process of sandy landscape in a short time. The study provides the basis for the sustainable development of the ecological environment in Horqin sandy land.

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台风灾害多元致灾因子联合分布研究
许红师,练继建,宾零陵,徐奎
地理科学. 2018, 38 (12): 2118-2124.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.021
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1633KB)

以沿海城市海口为例,运用三维Copula函数构建台风灾害多元致灾因子联合分布模型,开展多元致灾因子相互作用下的台风灾害事件联合重现期和失效概率的分析,提出全面评估台风灾害影响的研究思路。结果表明:三维Gumbel Copula函数能够合理描述台风灾害多元致灾因子之间的联合分布,以单变量作为设计依据会低估具有一定严重程度的台风灾害发生频次,相对于单变量重现期和二维联合重现期,三变量联合重现期的计算结果更加贴近实际情况。防台措施设计标准的制定应全面考虑台风灾害多元致灾因子,且应充分考虑各致灾因子间的相互作用以及设计期内的失效概率。研究成果可为中国沿海省市的可持续发展以及减灾、防灾政策的制定等提供重要的科学依据。


Coastal cities are highly vulnerable to typhoons due to the special geographical location. A typhoon is often accompanied by strong winds, heavy rains and high tide events. Strong winds, heavy rains and high tides are three disaster-causing factors of typhoon. Current studies of typhoon most focus on univariate and bivariate frequency analysis of disaster-causing factors. If only the joint characteristics of univariate or bivariate functions are analyzed, the factual hazard mechanism of typhoon in coastal zones cannot be explored. However, until now, there is some lack of knowledge about multivariate joint probability distribution of winds, rainfall and storm tides. The joint probability distribution can reveal the occurrence probability of multiple variables. Therefore, it is meaningful to investigate the trivariate joint probability distribution of winds, rainfall and storm tides for typhoon disaster management in coastal zones. Taking the Haikou city as an example, this paper uses the three-dimensional Copula function to construct the joint distribution model of multiple hazard factors of typhoon disasters and analyzes the joint return period of typhoon disasters and failure probability under the interaction of multiple hazard factors. The results show that the three-dimensional Gumbel Copula function can reasonably describe the joint distribution of multiple hazard factors of typhoon disasters. Multivariate return period analysis can provide more adequate and comprehensive information about risks than univariate return period analysis. Univariate design analysis will underestimate the occurrence frequency of typhoon disasters with a certain degree of severity, and the design standard of prevention measures should consider the multiple hazard factors of typhoon disasters comprehensively, and give full consideration to the failure probability during the design period. The research results can provide important scientific evidences for the sustainable development of China's coastal provinces and cities and the formulation of disaster prevention and disaster prevention policies.

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2018
Vol.38
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2018-11-20
pp.1741-1942
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2018-10-20
pp.1579-1739
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pp.1199-1396
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2018-07-20
pp.1012-1198
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2018-06-20
pp.827-996
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2018-05-10
pp.645-826
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2018-04-20
pp.485-644
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2018-03-21
pp.321-484
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2018-02-12
pp.161-320
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2018-01-10
pp.1-160
2017
Vol.37
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pp.1785-1952
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2017-11-20
pp.1609-1784
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2017-10-20
pp.1449-1608
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2017-09-20
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2017-08-20
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2017-07-20
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2017-06-20
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2017-05-20
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2017-03-20
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2017-02-20
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Vol.36
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2013-09-20
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2012-09-20
pp.1033-1160
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2012-08-20
pp.1000-1032
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2012-07-20
pp.777-904
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2012-06-20
pp.649-776
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2012-05-20
pp.521-648
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2012-04-20
pp.393-520
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Vol.26
No.6 
2006-11-20
pp.641-771
No.5
2006-09-20
pp.513-640
No.4
2006-07-20
pp.
No.3
2006-05-20
pp.
No.2
2006-03-20
pp.
No.1
2006-01-20
pp.
2005
Vol.25
No.6 
2005-11-20
pp.641-768
No.5
2005-09-20
pp.513-640
No.4
2005-07-20
pp.
No.3
2005-05-20
pp.
No.2
2005-03-20
pp.
No.1
2005-01-20
pp.
2004
Vol.24
No.6 
2004-11-20
pp.641-770
No.5
2004-09-20
pp.513-640
No.4
2004-07-20
pp.
No.3
2004-05-20
pp.
No.2
2004-03-20
pp.
No.1
2004-01-20
pp.
2003
Vol.23
No.6 
2003-11-20
pp.641-768
No.5
2003-09-20
pp.513-640
No.4
2003-07-20
pp.
No.3
2003-05-20
pp.
No.2
2003-03-20
pp.
No.1
2003-01-20
pp.
2002
Vol.22
No.6 
2002-11-20
pp.641-768
No.5
2002-09-20
pp.513-640
No.4
2002-07-20
pp.
No.3
2002-05-20
pp.
No.2
2002-03-20
pp.
No.1
2002-01-20
pp.
2001
Vol.21
No.6 
2001-11-20
pp.481-574
No.5
2001-09-20
pp.385-479
No.4
2001-07-20
pp.
No.3
2001-05-20
pp.
No.2
2001-03-20
pp.
No.1
2001-01-20
pp.
2000
Vol.20
No.6 
2000-11-20
pp.487-576
No.5
2000-09-20
pp.391-486
No.4
2000-07-20
pp.
No.3
2000-05-20
pp.
No.2
2000-03-20
pp.
No.1
2000-01-20
pp.
1999
Vol.19
No.6 
1999-11-20
pp.481-574
No.5
1999-09-20
pp.385-480
No.4
1999-07-20
pp.290-384
No.3
1999-05-20
pp.193-288
No.2
1999-03-20
pp.
No.1
1999-01-20
pp.
1998
Vol.18
No.z1 
1998-12-25
pp.1-74
No.6
1998-11-20
pp.493-592
No.5
1998-09-20
pp.393-492
No.4
1998-07-20
pp.293-392
No.3
1998-05-20
pp.197-292
No.2
1998-03-20
pp.
No.1
1998-01-20
pp.
2011
Vol.31
No.12 
1997-12-20
pp.1415-1554
No.11
1997-11-20
pp.1287-1414
No.10
1997-10-20
pp.1159-1285
No.9
1997-09-20
pp.1025-1157
No.8
1997-08-20
pp.897-1024
No.7
1997-07-20
pp.769-896
1997
Vol.17
No.4 
1997-07-20
pp.
No.3
1997-05-20
pp.
No.2
1997-03-20
pp.
No.1
1997-01-20
pp.
1996
Vol.16
No.4 
1996-07-20
pp.289-384
No.3
1996-05-20
pp.193-288
No.2
1996-03-20
pp.
No.1
1996-01-20
pp.
1995
Vol.15
No.4 
1995-07-20
pp.299-390
No.3
1995-05-20
pp.201-296
No.2
1995-03-20
pp.101-195
No.1
1995-01-20
pp.1-98
1994
Vol.14
No.4 
1994-07-20
pp.297-388
No.3
1994-05-20
pp.201-294
No.2
1994-03-20
pp.101-198
No.1
1994-01-20
pp.1-97
1993
Vol.13
No.4 
1993-07-20
pp.297-390
No.3
1993-05-20
pp.197-294
No.2
1993-03-20
pp.121-132
No.1
1993-01-20
pp.1-86
1991
Vol.11
No.4 
1991-07-20
pp.297-390
No.3
1991-05-20
pp.197-294
No.2
1991-03-20
pp.101-194
No.1
1991-01-20
pp.1-98
1990
Vol.10
No.4 
1990-07-20
pp.294-386
No.3
1990-05-20
pp.193-289
No.2
1990-03-20
pp.97-190
No.1
1990-01-20
pp.6-92
1989
Vol.9
No.4 
1989-07-20
pp.293-386
No.3
1989-05-20
pp.197-290
No.2
1989-03-20
pp.97-194
No.1
1989-01-20
pp.1-93
1988
Vol.8
No.4 
1988-07-20
pp.301-394
No.3
1988-05-20
pp.201-294
No.2
1988-03-20
pp.101-198
No.1
1988-01-20
pp.1-98
1987
Vol.7
No.4 
1987-07-20
pp.297-390
No.3
1987-05-20
pp.197-293
No.2
1987-03-20
pp.101-194
No.1
1987-01-20
pp.1-98
1986
Vol.6
No.4 
1986-07-20
pp.293-388
No.3
1986-05-20
pp.197-292
No.2
1986-03-20
pp.101-196
No.1
1986-01-20
pp.1-100
1985
Vol.5
No.3 
1985-05-20
pp.193-286
No.2
1985-03-20
pp.123-192
No.1
1985-01-20
pp.1-96
1984
Vol.4
No.4 
1984-07-20
pp.293-392
No.3
1984-05-20
pp.197-298
No.2
1984-03-20
pp.97-194
No.1
1984-01-20
pp.1-96
1983
Vol.3
No.4 
1983-07-20
pp.287-386
No.3
1983-05-20
pp.191-286
No.2
1983-03-20
pp.95-189
No.1
1983-01-20
pp.1-94
1982
Vol.2
No.4 
1982-07-20
pp.291-389
No.3
1982-05-20
pp.193-290
No.2
1982-03-20
pp.97-192
No.1
1982-01-20
pp.1-96
1981
Vol.1
No.2 
1981-03-20
pp.97-188
No.1
1981-01-20
pp.1-95


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