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渤海海峡跨海通道建设与中国的地缘政治战略
回顾渤海海峡跨海通道建设研究的历史进程基础上,诠释了地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,梳理了主要的中外地缘政治理论与地缘政治战略,明确指出地缘政治战略决定着大国竞争方向。中国是世界上地缘政治环境最复杂的国家,在中国周边长期存在着一个“V”字型地缘政治热点线,“V”字型地缘政治热点线贯穿中国周边的东南亚、东北亚、南亚、北亚、中亚五大地缘政治战略区,构成了中国的地缘政治“大棋局&rdqu. . .
地理科学, 2017 Vol. 37 (1): 1-10    DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.01.001
 
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  2017年, 第37卷, 第11期 刊出日期:2018-01-10 上一期   
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自然的社会建构:西方人文地理学对自然的再认识
朱竑,尹铎
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1609-1616.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.001
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1575KB)

自然的社会建构作为西方人文地理学界对自然的再思考,渐成为理解自然与社会互动的重要理论框架,并逐步成为推动人地和谐、可持续发展研究的新范式。通过梳理自然的社会建构研究理论源起并对西方涉及自然的社会建构的研究文献进行全面梳理发现,自然的社会建构并非单纯指基于建构主义视角考察自然的知识生产或价值与意义,还应该关注自然被生产与形构的商品化过程。现有议题主要聚焦于政治与自然、商品化与自然、社会情感与自然以及日常生活与自然四大方面。在此基础上,进一步提出了国内未来研究需要关注的重要方向。


The approach of social construction of nature has become an important theoretical framework in understanding the interplay between society and nature in western Human Geography as geographers has long endeavored to integrate Human Geography and Physical Geography. “Social construction of nature” not only refers to the process and transformation by which nature is materially formed and commodified, but also emphasizes that the ideas of nature are socially constructed and culturally determined, which intrinsically related to subjective meanings, power, discourse, and representation. This approach therefore arguably sheds new light on cultivating harmonious human-place relationship and substantial development. This article seeks to review on the theory of social construction of nature and related literature, and outlines four aspect of focuses: the politics of nature, the commercialization of nature, social emotion and nature, and everyday life and nature. We argue that social construction of nature is not merely a social constructionist approach that primarily focuses on the knowledge production and social value and meaning imposed on the nature, but also intellectually rewarding in seeing both material and symbolic form of nature as interactively constituted with each other. Most importantly, the material changes of nature are often interactively tied up with the values and meanings of nature. At last, this article proposes the future research areas that requires further theoretical and empirical investigation including the dynamics and effects of social construction of nature amidst China social transformation, power relationships and negotiation underlying the socialize process of nature, capital’s impacts upon the reconstruction of nature, and individuals’ emotional response to social construction of nature. Hence, we argue that the positivist understanding of nature need to articulate with social constructionist approach, which reconcile the material change of nature with social meanings and relationships. This article seeks to enrich the interdisciplinary research of nature in domestic Human Geography and Physical Geography.

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基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应
王雪辉,谷国锋
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1617-1623.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.002
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1078KB)

基于新经济地理学理论,定量分析中国285个地级市的市场潜能及其空间格局,并根据其强度划分为3个等级市场潜能区,运用探索性空间数据分析工具,揭示其空间相关性随地理距离的变化规律。引入市场潜能变量作为测度经济增长溢出效应的指标,建立空间计量模型测度中国经济增长的空间溢出效应及其范围,结果显示:中国市场潜能空间分布呈“中心-外围”结构,具有从沿海向内陆阶梯状递减的趋势;市场潜能的空间自相关性随距离增加先上升后下降,市场潜能的强度不同,其空间自相关范围也有所差异;经济增长溢出效应强度随距离增加呈“∽”型趋势变化,中国地级市经济增长的有效溢出范围为200 km以内,市场潜能越高,经济活动空间集聚性越强,溢出范围越大。


With the process of reform and opening up, the market questions are becoming more and more important to Chinese economic growth, especially the questions on the relationships of market potential and economic growth. The measurement of market potential which reflected the the first law of geography is widely used by theories of new economic geography and regional econometrics. This article constructed the theoretical model of market potential and economic growth based on the theory of new economic geography. The article also analyzed the market potential and of Chinese 258 prefecture-level cities quantitatively and explored the spatial distribution of market potential. According to intensity of market potential, the research areas could be divided into three grades of market potential areas. The first market potential zone is the area which owns the highest market potential and the values in the second market potential zone are lower than that. The third market potential zone obtains the lowest values of market potential. This article revealed the characteristics of market potential’s spatial autocorrelation with using exploratory spatial data analysis tools. Moreover, this article introduced the market potential variable as the index of economic spillover effects, because the conception of market potential could reflect the spatial relationships of different areas to a certain extent, especially spatial dependence and spillover effects. So the spatial effects could not be ignored in this article. Taking the spatial effects out of consideration could lead to the results of estimation biased and inconsistent. Therefore, this article established the spatial econometric models (including spatial lag model and spatial error model) to measure the scope of economic spillover effects in China. The results are as follows: 1) The spatial distribution of market potential in China presented the ‘core-edge’ structure, which showed a trend of cascade decrease from the coast to inland areas. 2) The spatial autocorrelation of market potential increases first and then fall with geographical distance. What’s more, for the market potential areas of different intensity, the scope of their spatial autocorrelation is different. 3) Economic growth spillover effects showed a trend of "∽" type with geographic distance. The economic growth effective spillover of Chinese 258 prefecture-level cities is in the range of 200 km. For the market potential areas of different intensity, the scope of the economic growth spillover effects is different. The area that market potential are higher, the spatial agglomeration of economic activities is stronger, and the scope of economic growth spillover effects is broader.

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基于力学平衡模型的长三角港口物流发展协调性研究
叶士琳,曹有挥,蒋自然,王佳韡
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1624-1631.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.003
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (596KB)

基于港口物流协调发展理论分析框架,构建相应的综合评价指标体系和协调性判别模型,对长三角13个港口物流发展协调性进行综合评判。结果表明:长三角已形成较为明显的以上海港为核心,宁波-舟山港、苏州港和南京港为副中心,其余港口为重要补充的多层次港口物流规模等级结构;港口物流协调发展层次总体偏低,以低水平协调型为主,且港口物流发展协调度与综合发展度间存在紧密联系,呈现明显的“U”型曲线特征;港口物流协调发展偏离方向集中化特征不明显,制约不同港口物流协调发展的主要因素存在较大区别,同时就物流运营发展滞后型、城市支撑发展滞后型和基础设施发展滞后型港口分别提出改进方向。


Based on the idea of systems theory, one new theoretical analytical framework for port logistics coordinated development is proposed by the authors. The framework consists of three subsystems, including port infrastructure, logistics operation, and city support. On the basis of it, one comprehensive index system of port logistics coordinated development is established in this research. It contains 3 second grade indexes and 14 third grade indexes. This article abstracts the coupling relationship, between the three subsystems, into vector relation of three forces with different direction in Cartesian coordinate system. Then, the authors construct the coupling coordination discriminate model of port logistics development, by combing the comprehensive evaluation index system with the mechanical model. Furthermore, by using the natural and social economic statistic data from 13 container ports in the Yangtze River Delta in 2013, the comprehensive development level, the coordinated development state and the main restrictive factors of port logistics development are estimated and quantified. The results show that: 1) There are some significant differences in the comprehensive development degree of port logistics among the Yangtze River Delta port system, and it has formed a multi-level port logistics hierarchical structure. Shanghai is the center, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Suzhou and Nanjing are the sub-centers, and the rest of the ports is the supplement. 2) There are some obvious differences in the coordination degree of port logistics in the Yangtze River Delta post system. The overall level of coordination is obviously low. The Yangtze River Delta post system includes five kinds of coordination development types, of which the low-level coordination type is the main types, and it covers 7 ports, accounting for 53.85% of the total ports. In particular, the comprehensive development degree is closely linked with the coordination degree of port logistics, and the relation is in line with the ‘U-shaped’ curve. 3) The concentration characteristic of the deviated direction of the coordination degree is not obvious. The quantity of ports in the lag type of the port infrastructure, logistics operation and city support subsystems is approximately the same. Finally, how to promote the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta port logistics has carried on the preliminary discussion.

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中国地方政府科技财政支出对企业创新产出的影响研究——来自工业企业数据库的证据
王丰龙,曾刚,周灿,张传勇
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1632-1639.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.004
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (447KB)

自主创新是中国重要的国家战略之一,各级政府纷纷给予企业创新活动多方面的财政支持。然而,经济地理学很少考察政府财政支持对创新的具体效应,其他学科对这一问题的研究也缺乏定论。为弥补这一缺憾,本文运用工业企业数据库的大样本数据和多层次回归模型,分析了全国地级市政府科技财政支出对当地企业创新产出的影响。研究结果表明,地方政府对创新的支持效果存在异质性。从全国整体情况看,地方政府科技支出对企业创新产出的影响不显著,但东部地区、大城市例外;政府科技支出对国企和大中型企业的促进作用更强。该结论对于政府检视地方政府科技扶持政策效果和调整政府在科技创新方面的财政分配方案具有参考意义。


Promotion of independent innovation is one of the major national strategies in China. Both the central and local states have provided a lot of fiscal subsidies for innovation activities of corporations. However, not many studies in economic geography have paid attention on this issue. While the economists and management researchers have done some initial analyses of the association between subsidies or tax remission provided by government on firm innovation, the theoretical perspectives are contradictory and the empirical evidences are inconsistent. Moreover, few studies have considered the inter-level interactions on this issue. This paper tries to narrow the gap by examining the effects of local fiscal expenditures for science and technology on firm innovation based on multi-level regression models. The data is drawn from China City Statistical Yearbook and Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database, which are by far the most comprehensive and widely used database of manufacturing enterprises in China. It is found that the local fiscal expenditures for science and technology has insignificant effects on innovation performance of manufacturing firms at the national level. However, further analyses reveal that local fiscal expenditures for science and technology do promote firm innovation in the eastern China or the large cities with population over 2 million. Fiscal expenditures for science and technology also has significant and positive effects on large corporations or state-owned firms. These findings have important policy implications.

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中国公路运输全要素生产率时空演化及区域竞争——基于Hicks-Moorsteen指数框架
刘宏伟,吴杰,梁雯,方叶林
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1640-1648.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.005
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1520KB)

运用Hicks-Moorsteen TFP指数法对中国公路运输业全要素生产率进行测度和演化分析。结果发现:2009~2012年中国公路全要素生产率实现了增长,2013~2015年出现下降。2009年来技术进步推动了东部地区公路运输全要素生产率的增长,而运营效率提升则在推动中西部地区公路运输全要素生产率增长时起到了关键作用。中西部地区公路运输效率增长优于东部地区。东部地区在引领技术进步的同时,应注重公路运输效率的提升;中西部地区应注意加大先进技术的引进。政府和主管部门对中西部公路运输应推出持续性支持政策。


While road constructionhas made great progress with the economic development in China, the performances of road transportation productivity in various regions are different. Enhancing the road transportation productivity could not only mask uneven conditioning of different regions, but also be in line with the requirements of economic supply-side structural reform. Therefore, under the economic new normal, it is very important to evaluate and analysis the road transportation productivity scientifically, which could be references for decision making. In order to achieve that goal, on the basis of the non-parametric Hicks-Moorsteen total factor productivity (TFP) index model, the road transportation industry TFP in mainland China from 2008 to 2015 is measured and analyzed. Then the road transportation industry TFP is decomposed into in technology progress and change in efficiency, and the latter could be further decomposed into pure technology efficiency, scale efficiency and mixed efficiency. The findings demonstrate that: the annual average TFP of road transportation industry in China shows a 0.77% decrease along with the technology level regression and operation efficiency increase during the period. In detail, while the TFP of road transportation industry in China from 2009 to 2012 increased, which was influenced by police made by government such as “Four Trillion Yuan RMB investment”, the TFP of road transportation industry in China decreased from 2013 to 2015, which was influenced by the economic environment. As to administrative regions, in eastern region, the technical efficiency progression and the TFP index number of road transportation are the best, and the technical efficiency progression is the main factor to drive TFP growth; In central region, while the TFP of road transportation decreased and its technology level regressed also, the operation efficiency of road transportation industry had an average annual increase of 6.89%, which is higher than other regions; In western region, while the TFP of road transportation and the technology level regressed obviously, the operation efficiency had an average annual increase of 6.31%. Compared to eastern region, the outputs mixed efficiency in central and western regions grow faster, which means that the transportation harmony of road passengers and cargos is better than that in eastern region. It demonstrates that the polices of “rise of the central region strategy” and “large-scale development in west China” played an important role on road transportation industry TFP growth. The technology level in central and western regions regressed in recent years, which are still lagging behind. It is worth noting that no matter in eastern region, in central region, or in western region, the scale efficiency underperformed. Finally, suggestions to improve the efficiencies and index numbers are given, which will be different in various regions. As to the road transportation industry in eastern region, the government or the department in charge should improve the utilization of advanced technique. As to the road transportation industry in central and western regions, the most important is improve the technique. At the same time, the government should make police to encourage the eastern region to help central and western region develop.

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创新资源协同空间联系与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据的实证分析
吕海萍,池仁勇,化祥雨
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1649-1658.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.006
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1599KB)

以中国31个省域为空间样本,运用趋势面、引力模型和探索性空间数据分析法研究中国创新资源协同空间联系的动态变化特征,通过构建创新资源协同势能与区域经济增长空间面板计量模型,实证探讨创新资源协同空间联系与区域经济增长关系。研究结果表明:2003~2014年中国各省域创新资源协同状况整体呈现“东南高,西北低”的空间分布特征;创新资源协同空间联系呈现显著的区域不平衡性,空间网络结构分布格局变化显著:从简单雏形逐渐发育为“鸡爪型”、多核心复杂化的“网络型”空间结构;创新资源协同势能呈现显著的空间正相关,主要向东部沿海地区集聚;实证结果显示中国区域经济增长存在显著的空间溢出效应,创新资源协同空间联系对区域经济增长表现出显著的促进效应,可以通过直接效应、间接效应和总效应空间溢出促进区域经济增长。


Spatial linkages of innovative resources synergy (IRS) not only can actively promote the intra-regional dynamic adjustment of IRS level, but also can promote the improvement of the inter-regional potential differences of IRS, thus, leading to a formation of new motivation of regional economic growth. But the existing studies rarely involve in the research on spatial linkages characteristics of IRS and its influence on regional economic growth. This study analyzes characteristics of spatial linkages of innovative resources synergy in 31 provinces of China using trend analysis, gravity model and exploratory spatial data analysis, further constructs a spatial panel model of spatial linkages of IRS affecting regional economic growth, investigates the specific effect of spatial linkages of IRS on regional economic growth by using spatial econometric. The conclusions are as follows: From 2003 to 2014 synergy of innovative resources of China’s 31 provinces overall show the spatial trend of “southeast high, northwest low”, and dynamic spatial differentiation of “high in east, low in west, declining in north, and rising in south”; The spatial linkages of IRS in China has the obvious regional imbalance, and its network structure has changed significantly. It now has developed into a complex multi-core “network-based” structure from a simple embryonic form in 2003 to a “chicken toe”-type in 2009; IRS potential shows the significant positive correlation and the significant spatial agglomeration trend to Eastern Coastal Area; The spatial spillover effect of regional economic growth in China is significant, and the spatial linkages of IRS has a significant positive effect on regional economic growth. It not only can promote significantly the region’s economic growth by the direct effect, but also promote significantly adjacent regions’ economic growth by the indirect and total effect. And the direct promotion effect is greater than the indirect promotion effect. Based on the above research, this article suggests that, the government should adjust the way how the innovative resources can be allocated, make the market to be the decisive role in promoting the interregional innovation resources flow, optimize the network structure of the spatial linkages of IRS, and maximize the spatial spillover effect of innovative resources synergy.

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城市功能与区域创新耦合协调的空间联系研究——以长江经济带107个城市为实证
徐维祥,张凌燕,刘程军,杨蕾,黄明均
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1659-1667.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.007
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (3294KB)

利用区位熵、耦合协调模型、趋势面分析、引力模型等对长江经济带城市功能与区域创新耦合协调度进行了测算,并对其空间联系进行了分析。得到了以下结论:2004~2014年,各个城市单元整体的耦合协调度均有一定程度的提升,逐渐形成三大连绵较高协调集聚区,长江经济带总体耦合协调度呈现出“下游高-中上游低”的空间趋势;空间联系的最大引力线联结格局比较稳定,长三角城市群是耦合协调发展的重要基地和优势集聚区;长江下游地区空间联系的网络密度与网络结构的复杂程度远高于长江中上游地区,并且逐渐形成由以长三角为核心城市圈,牵引长江中上游城市多极化发展的网络结构。


Using the location entropy, coupled coordination model, trend surface analysis and gravity model to calculate the coupling coordination degree of city function and regional innovation and analyze the situation of spatial linkages in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The conclusions are arrived as follows: 1) in 2004-2014, the coupling coordination degree had a certain degree of improvement of the whole city unit, gradually form three continuous gathering area. The overall coupling coordination degree shows the spatial trend of "lower middle and upper middle reaches" in the Yangtze River Economic Belt; 2) Connection structure of the maximum gravitational line of the spatial linkages is relatively stable, the Yangtze River Delta agglomeration is an important and gathering area for the coordinated development; 3) The complex degree of network density and structure of the spatial linkages in the lower reaches is much higher than that in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and gradually form a network structure of the Yangtze River Delta as the core city circle, driving the development of multi polarization in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

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长江经济带工业废水排放的时空格局演化及驱动因素
陈昆仑,郭宇琪,刘小琼,张祚
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1668-1677.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.008
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1603KB)

利用探索性空间分析方法(ESDA)和迪氏分解模型(LMDI)研究长江经济带2002~2013年工业废水排放的时空格局演化和主要驱动因素。时空格局演化方面,时间上工业废水排放先上升后下降,在2005年达到峰值。空间上,排放量自上游向下游增加;高排放城市减少,中排放城市增多;工业废水排放自下游向中上游转移,并由大城市向中小城市扩散;呈现明显的空间集聚状态。 驱动因素方面,经济发展效应和技术进步效应分别是工业废水排放增多和降低的主导因素;产业结构效应的影响取决于产业发展政策的调整;人口规模效应影响较小。


Using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI), this article analyzes the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2002 to 2013 and the main driving factors affecting industrial wastewater discharge. The study indicates that: 1) In terms of the evolution of temporal pattern, the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone increased continuously from 2002 to 2005, reaching the peak in 2005, and then showed a downward trend. As for the evolution of spatial pattern, the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone gradually expanded from the upper reaches of Yangtze River to its lower reaches from 2002 to 2013. Regarding the discharge pattern, the high-discharge cities decreased while the medium-discharge cities increased. As for the changing trend, the industrial wastewater discharge tended to transfer from the lower branches of the Yangtze River to the middle and upper reaches, and spread from large cities to small and medium-sized cities. During the study period, the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone showed a significant spatial agglomeration. 2) In terms of the driving factors, the economic development effect and the technological development effect are the main factors which lead to the increase and decrease of industrial wastewater discharge respectively. The effect of industrial structure is significant to the industrial wastewater discharge and it leads to the increase or decrease of the industrial wastewater discharge depending on the adjustment of the policy regarding the development of industries. Population effect exerts a little impact on the industrial wastewater discharge. Although the discharge of industrial wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Zone is gradually decreasing as a whole, the pollution problem is still serious and unbalanced. Therefore, under the background of The Belt and Road Initiative strategy, ideas of developing the Yangtze River Economic Zone should be changed and the comprehensive environmental management of the Yangtze River Basin and ecosystem restoration should be enhanced.

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世界遗产预备项目“丝绸之路-海路-中国段”研究
阙维民
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1678-1688.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.009
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (672KB)

中国海上丝绸之路申遗于2016年正式启动,迄今尚无有关中国海上丝绸之路申遗专题的综合研究成果。首先建议申遗项目的中英文名称:丝绸之路-海路-中国段(Silk Road-Maritime Route in China),然后探讨“丝绸之路”申遗的国际背景(除1项“丝绸之路:长安-天山廊道路网”系列跨国世界遗产外,另有8国递交9项“丝绸之路”预备项目)与“丝绸之路-海路-中国”项目的申报意义(主动性、创新性、唯一性、均衡性、政治性、世界性)。并就申报项目的遗产内容提出具体建议:遗产地从31处扩展至141处,遗产类型在文物遗产的基础上增加了聚落遗产(历史文化名镇、名村、街区)。最后提出在UNESCO世界遗产委员会建立“丝绸之路-海路”申遗专项基金。


Maritime Silk Route is an important part of Silk Road. Maritime Silk Route in China has been applied officially for the World Heritage List in 2016, but there are few synthesis research output on such a topic. Therefore, this article proposes the first Chinese-English title of the application project, then analyses the international background of nomination for “Silk Road” World Heritage Project (besides Silk Roads: the Routes Network of Chang’an-Tianshan Corridor, a serial transnational World Heritage Property, there are other 9 tentative properties of “Silk Road” submitted by 8 countries) and the significance on application of “Silk Road: Maritime Route in China” (SRMRC) property. It provides some concrete suggestions for Heritage Sites included in the property: the number of Heritage Sites has been increased from 31 to 141 and the type of Heritage increased from one to two. In the end, the article proposes the idea for benefiting the management of the application: setting up a special foundation on “Silk Road: Maritime Route” World Heritage nomination in UNESCO World Heritage Committee. The nomination of SRMRC accords with the trend of protecting and governing the heritage along Silk Road, it bears many significances. 1) Initiative. During the nomination course of “Silk Road”, China had been in the passive position and without dominant right, which gain by other countries, nomination of SRMRC will help China to get rid of the passive situation and win the dominant right on the nomination of “Silk Road” in UNESCO. 2) Innovativeness. The main Heritage Site in the land “Silk Road” have been included in the World Heritage Project “Silk Roads: the Routes Network of Chang'an-Tianshan Corridor”, so SRMRC with the Heritage Site along the maritime route is the innovative activity for nomination. 3) Uniqueness. In the Tentative List, beside of “Chinese Section of Silk Road” and “The Chinese Section of Silk Roads”, there is no single property of Maritime Silk Road. It is true that SRMRC will be the unique property. 4) Equilibrium. Silk Road is the worldwide cultural heritage line that includes both land route and maritime route. Therefore, under the situation of having one land route property, nomination of maritime route property will be the balance between land and maritime as far as the series property of Silk Road. As to unbalance situation between land sites and maritime sites, nomination of SRMRC will be the contribution and accord with the Global Strategy for a representative, balanced and credible World Heritage List. 5) Political significance. Within the international communication in the 21st century, “Belt & Road” is the peaceful initiative for the world that proposed by the Chairman Xi Jinping, on behalf of Chinese Government, nomination of SRMRC is the historical explanation under the World Heritage perspective, with an important realistic meaning. 6) Global scope. Within the Tentative List, besides of “Silk Road” properties nominated by eight countries, there are another 15 cultural heritage line properties from Europe, Africa, Mid-east, Asia and America etc. But all of them don’t stand up to the global cultural heritage line “Silk Road”, which includes the maritime route that the others not possess. That is why “Silk Road” has been accepted by UNESCO as the series property that get the representative of global economic & cultural exchange and dialogue.

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基于空侧货物运输系统的中国民用机场可达性评价
褚艳玲,杨忠振
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1689-1695.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.010
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (616KB)

基于机场连接的航线网络,把某机场到其他机场的年可用货运吨位加权之和作为测度指标,分析2001~2013年间中国民用机场空侧货运可达性在时间和空间上的变化。研究结果表明:机场空侧货运可达性逐年提高,机场间可达性绝对差异变大,相对差异减小;北京、上海、广州和深圳机场的空侧货运可达性排名稳居前四;机场空侧货运可达性从大到小按指数规律迅速下降;华北区机场空侧可达性最高,新疆区机场可达性最低,东西部机场可达性差距缩小;七大区域机场可达性总体呈上升趋势,但上升幅度各异。


Along with the upgrade of industrial structure and emerging markets such as e-commerce rapid development, more and more short life-cycle or time-sensitive products rely on air transport. Hence, air cargo transport industry becomes a new growth point in Chinese civil aviation transport industry. According to the statistics, in 2014, Chinese air freight turnover is 18 777 million ton km, and airport cargo throughput is 1 356.08 million ton. Airport is the key node of air transport network, and its accessibility straight forward affects the convenience of air cargo transport. Based on the airline network, this article uses weighted sum of annual available freight tonnage from one airport to others as a measuring index to assess the spatial-temporal change of Chinese civil aviation airport airside cargo transport accessibility in 2001-2013. The result shows that: 1) Airport airside accessibility increases year by year. The mean value of accessibility increase is 1.47 times, or 7.21% in average annual growth rate of accessibility. The standard deviation of accessibility gains 2.3 times, absolute variance of accessibility becomes larger, but the standard deviation coefficient reduces 6.93%, in the meanwhile, the relative variance becomes smaller. In addition, the accessibility of more than 60% airports is below its mean value. 2) Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen airports take the first four positions in the ranking of airports airside accessibility. Western development strategy elevates airside accessibility of southwest airports, the airside accessibility rankings of Chengdu and Chongqing airports go up year by year. The strategy of revitalizing northeast old industrial base has little impact to airside accessibility of northeast airports, and the airside accessibility of Harbin, Shenyang and Dalian airports goes down year by year. 3) The accessibility growth rates of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen airports are below 10%. In top 20 airports, Sanya airport grows faster than others and its annual growth rate of accessibility is 22.5%, while Shenzhen airport remains 6.26% at bottom. This also indicates that accessibility is not proportional with its annual growth rate. 4) The number of airports with greater than 100 000 tons of accessibility increases from 19 to 40, or 45.45%. Those airports are mainly located in capital cities or economically developed areas, and the accessibility rapidly declines in the way of exponential function. 5) The accessibility of regional airports rises year by year and the accessibility gap narrows down between west and east areas. Airport accessibility in north China is highest, while it is lowest in Xinjiang. The spatial difference of accessibility increases in north China, northwest and Xinjiang, but it declines in east China, central south, west south and northwest. 6) The average annual growth rate of airport accessibility varies from seven regional airports. The ranking by growth rate of airport accessibility from high to low is Xinjiang, southwest, northwest, northeast, east China, central south and north China. It also represents airport accessibility grows faster in west area than east and north areas.

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江苏省土地开发度与利用效益的空间特征及协调分析
杨清可,段学军,李平星,王磊
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1696-1704.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.011
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (879KB)

通过探讨江苏省土地开发度与利用效益的空间特征、耦合格局及其协调发展程度,为相关研究提供参考。研究表明:① 1996~2015年,江苏省土地开发度指数从0.339升至0.426,呈现平稳增长→快速增长→平稳增长的态势。利用效益指数从0.459提高至0.596。 土地开发度与利用效益存在显著的空间差异。1996~2015年苏南地区土地开发强度高,利用效益提升显著。苏北地区的宿迁、淮安与盐城等市的利用效益较低,“中部凹陷”特征明显。③ 土地开发度与利用效益耦合关系处于不断变化过程中,总体耦合态势可划分为减弱-波动-增强3个阶段,土地开发与利用效益重心均向东南移动,但效益重心移动速度稍快。④ 苏南地区土地开发度与开发效益耦合度大于0.8,低值区集聚在淮安、盐城等地。


Rapid urbanization and industrialization have promoted the rapid expansion of construction land in Jiangsu. By clarifying and coordinating the relationship between land development and use benefit, it’s of great significance for the rational allocation of land resources to improve the coordination of interests and the compensation mechanism. In this article, the spatial distribution characteristics, the coupling pattern and the coordinated development degree of land development and use benefit discussed would provide the scientific reference for policy formulation. Our results show that: 1) During the study period, the index of the degree of land development rises from 0.339 to 0.426, showing a steady growth->rapid growth->steady growth trend. Meanwhile, the index on land use benefit increases from 0.459 to 0.596. 2) There are obvious spatial differences between land development and use benefit. In the last 20 years, the intensity of land development in South of Jiangsu is high, and the use benefit is also significantly improved. Suqian, Huai’an, Yancheng and other cities in the north of Jiangsu have low use benefit, leading to the formation of a significant phenomenon of "central depression". 3) The coupling degree between land development and use benefit is changing. The overall coupling situation can be divided into 3 stages, that is, the weakening, the fluctuation and the enhancement. Although the gravity centers of land development and use benefit are moving towards the southeast, the speed is faster. 4) The coupling degree of land development and use benefit is greater than 0.8 in South Jiangsu, and the low value of coupling is concentrated in Huaian, Yancheng and other places. Various factors, such as regional industrial development, infrastructure, land demand of human settlements, would produce different effects for land development and expansion intensity. The significant difference of land use policy and land intensive use level makes spatial variation on the feedback and degrees of coupling coordination degree between land development and use benefit.

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基于社会网络分析法的中国省际入境旅游经济增长空间关联性
马丽君,龙云
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1705-1711.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.012
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (507KB)

收集1991~2014年有关数据,利用社会网络分析法、格兰杰因果关系检验,揭示中国省际入境旅游经济增长的空间关联特征及影响因素,结果发现:① 入境旅游经济增长空间关联网络的关联度较高,但网络整体紧密度不够。 经济越发达的地区,个体网络密度越高,空间上呈现出阶梯式特征。③ 担任“发动机”的第二板块所含省市,将入境旅游经济增长“动能”沿发挥经纪人作用的第一板块所含省市,传递给第三、四板块所含省市。④ 入境旅游人数关联、旅游资源分布、经济发展关联、交通便捷度是影响入境旅游经济增长空间关联的重要因素。


This article collects data from 1991 to 2014 to analyze the spatial correlation of economic growth of inbound tourism in China by using the method of Granger Causality Test and Social Network Analysis. Then, we reveal its influencing factors based on QAP correlation and QAP regression. The results show that: 1) Spatial correlation of China’s inbound tourism economical development is highly connected. There is no independent development area. It exists multiple superimposed effects, and spillovers have been greater than benefit. However, the network is not compact entirely, and connections are dispersive generally. 2) The province economy is more developed, the higher the density of individual network, and the more spatial associations with other provinces. Moreover, the correlations of some central and western regions have more connections and stronger mediating effects. 3) The network structure can be divided into four plates. The first plate is “agent plate” that plays a role of bridge and the second plate is “main beneficial plates” that acts as an engine in the integrated network. The third and the fourth plate are both belong to “main beneficial plates”. The transfer mechanism of spatial correlation is that the second plate conveys energy from the first plate to the third and the fourth plate. 4) Number of inbound tourists, distribution of tourism resources, economic development and traffic convenience are important factors of the spatial correlation of economic growth in China’s inbound tourism.

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东北振兴以来吉林省区域经济差异的时空演变研究
高翯,王士君,谭亮
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1712-1719.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.013
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (1652KB)

基于吉林省2003~2015年间地区生产总值和人均地区生产总值数据,以市域、县域两个尺度单元为研究对象,采用人口加权变异系数、基尼系数、泰尔指数等统计分析方法,对吉林省东北振兴战略实施以来的13 a内,区域经济差异的时空演变进行定量分析,并运用泰尔指数的分解方法,探讨了吉林省区域经济差异的空间格局。结果发现:① 吉林省区域经济总体差异、市域差异、县域差异均呈逐年下降趋势。 通过差异贡献率显示:县域差异是区域总体差异变化的主导力量,长春市域的内部差异远高于其他市域,但有逐年减小的趋势,长吉两地的二元结构仍然突出,是全省区域经济差异产生的主要来源,主导着全省区域经济差异走向;③ 从2003~2015年来看,全省经济增长速度较快的地区主要还是集中在“三核一带”;吉林省经济差异主要是由资源禀赋、产业结构、极化效应和政策导向等多种因素综合作用的结果。


Based on the data of GDP and GDP per capita of Jilin Province from 2003 to 2015, the population weighting variation coefficient, Gini coefficient and Theil index are used to analyze the basic spatial units in the metropolitan and county regions. This article analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution of regional economic disparities in the 13 years since the implementation of the northeast revitalization strategy in Jilin Province, and discusses the spatial pattern of regional economic disparities in Jilin Province by using the decomposition method of the Theil index. The results show that: 1) the regional economic disparities in Jilin Province are declining year by year; 2) Theil index decomposition shows that: the county is the dominant force in regional overall disparities changes, the inner disparities of changchun city is far higher than other areas, but has a tendency to decrease year by year. The dual structure of Changchun-Jilin is still prominent, which is the main source of regional economic disparity, dominated the regional of the whole province to economic disparities; 3) From 2003 to 2015, the province's rapid economic growth is mainly concentrated in the “three nuclear zone”; 4) This article mainly from the resource endowment, industrial base, polarization effect and policy factors and other aspects, the preliminary discussion of the causes of regional economic disparities in Jilin Province.

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浙江省A级物流企业时空格局特征研究
蒋天颖,伍婵提,陈改改
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1720-1727.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.014
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2599KB)

基于浙江省2005~2015年A级物流企业时空数据,运用ArcGIS10.0和CrimeStats 3.3软件从时间和空间视角分析了浙江省A级物流企业空间格局特征及形成机制。研究表明:浙江省A级物流企业在时间序列上分为起步阶段、成长阶段和成熟阶段,各等级企业发展不平衡;从空间上来看,A级物流企业呈现明显的东北部密集、西南部稀疏的分布趋势,最近邻指数表明全省A级物流企业的空间分布集聚强度依次为:总体>3A>4A>2A>5A>1A;多尺度研究表明不同等级的物流企业在不同空间尺度上的分布格局以集聚分布形态为主,随机分布为辅,集聚程度趋势随尺度变化而变化;热点探测分析表明A级物流企业区位导向为长三角南翼经济发达区、沿海港口城市、内陆交通枢纽三大地带。


Based on the spatio-temporal data of A-grade logistics enterprises in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2015, this article analyzes the spatial pattern and formation mechanism of A-grade logistics enterprises in Zhejiang Province from the perspective of time and space using ArcGIS10.0 and Crime Stats 3.3. The results show that Zhejiang A-grade logistics enterprises are divided into initial stage, growth stage and maturity stage in time series, the internal structure of A-grade logistics enterprises is belong to a typical development trend of “middle heavy, two light”, and the development of enterprises in each level is unbalanced. From a spatial point of view, A-grade logistics enterprises obviously trends to be intensive in the northeast and sparse in the southwest. The nearest neighbor index shows that the spatial distribution of A-grade logistics enterprises in the province is in the order of overall >3A>4A>2A>5A>1A. The reason is that the economic development level of these regions is high, forming a relatively perfect traffic network, and the demand for urban distribution system is more and more urgent, the foreign exchanges have become increased frequently, logistics companies settle down one by one, which have become a mainstay of the logistics enterprises in Zhejiang Province. In addition, 1A-grade logistics enterprises and 5A-grade logistics enterprises are less in number, and the former showed a trend of uniform spatial distribution, the latter showed a trend of random distribution. The distance of every enterprise is far apart and scattered distribution. The multi-scale research shows that the distribution pattern of the logistics enterprises of different grades in different spatial scales is mainly in the form of agglomeration distribution, with the random distribution as the supplement, and the degree of aggregation tends to change with the scale, the stability which obeyed the concentration distribution is also restricted by the number and their geo-spatial locations of 1A-grade logistics enterprises. However, the number and the geo-spatial locations of logistics enterprises are impacted by social economy, market demand, transportation networks, government policy and other factors. Hot spot detection analysis shows that A-grade logistics enterprises are located in three areas: the south of the Yangtze River Delta economic development zone, coastal port cities and inland transportation hubs. As a result, revealing the space-time characteristics of A level logistics enterprises in Zhejiang Province, which provides several practical implications to promote further development of logistics industry in Zhejiang Province: 1) increasing the government's support of logistics enterprises; 2) to promote prudent degree of traffic network; 3) the optimization of regional industrial structure; 4) expanding the scale of the logistics market demand, and then ensure the logistics enterprises in Zhejiang Province effective to dock the Belt and Road .

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安徽省人口年龄结构特征及其社会经济影响研究
汪静
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1728-1735.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.015
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (501KB)

根据人口普查和抽样调查的数据资料,采用对比分析、聚类分析等研究方法分析了1953~2015年安徽省人口年龄结构时间特征、空间特征。从时间上看,安徽省人口年龄结构不断演变,少儿人口数量从不断增加转变为不断减少,劳动适龄人口比重比较稳定,人口老龄化程度不断加深,总抚养系数和少年儿童抚养系数大幅度下降,老年抚养系数上升;从空间上看,人口年龄结构存在较大地区差异。安徽省人口年龄结构对社会经济发展的影响主要表现为:① 人口老年化导致劳动生产率和经济增长速度的减缓,家庭规模小型化,并对社会养老保障和医疗卫生的挑战;② 少儿人口的不断减少影响教育资源的配置;③ 人口年龄结构的区域差异进一步加剧了安徽区域发展的不平衡性。为了尽可能地减缓人口年龄结构演变对安徽省社会经济发展的不利影响,建议采取如下措施:一是充分利用“人口红利”机遇期,加快经济发展,不断促进社会进步;二是要加强引导,因地施策;三是完善社会保障制度,努力扩大社会保障制度的覆盖面,力争全覆盖,尽量减小城乡差距;四是大力发展养老产业,探索建立满足居家养老、社区养老、机构养老等多种方式需求的政府主导、政策扶持、社会参与、市场运作的社会化养老服务体系。


Anhui is a province with a large population. Its age structure has an important impetus to the speed, type and trend of population development, thus affecting the social and economic development. According to the data of population census and sample survey, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of population age structure in Anhui Province from 1953 to 2015 by contrastive analysis and cluster analysis. From the temporal point of view, the population age structure here has been evolving. The number of children decreases compared with that of the past. The proportion of working-age population is relatively stable. The aging of the population is worsening. The total dependency coefficient and the children dependency coefficient have decreased to a large degree while the dependency coefficient of the elderly has increased. From the spatial point of view, the population age structure varies in regions. The impacts of the population age structure of Anhui Province on the social and economic development are as follows. First, the aging of population leads to the slowdown of labor productivity and economic growth, the miniaturization of family size, and the challenge of social security and health care. Second, the decreasing population of children affects the allocation of educational resources. Finally, The regional disparity of population age structure further aggravates the imbalance of Anhui regional development. In order to minimize the negative impact of the demographic age structure on the social and economic development of Anhui Province, we propose the following measures. First, the opportunity of “population dividend” period needs to be made full use of to accelerate economic development and promote social progress. Second, policies, under the guidance, are to be adopted according to regional differences. Third, the social security system needs to be improved so that its coverage can be expanded to the fullest and the gap between urban and rural areas in this aspect can be minimized. Fourth, the pension industry is to be vigorously developed and a socialized pension service system led by the government, supported by policies, participated by the society and operated in the market can be established to meet the various needs of pension at home, in communities, or in institutions.

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2000~2014年黑龙江流域(中国)植被覆盖时空变化及其对气候变化的响应
方利,王文杰,蒋卫国,陈民,王永,贾凯,李延森
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1745-1754.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.017
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (6973KB)

采用MODIS/NDVI数据,利用Theil-Sen Median 趋势分析、Mann-Kendall 以及Hurst指数方法分析2000~2014年黑龙江流域(中国)植被的时空变化特征、植被变化发展趋势及可持续性特征;应用相关分析法研究了气候变化对植被生长的影响。结果表明,2000~2014年黑龙江流域(中国)植被NDVI指数呈缓慢增加趋势,山区植被覆盖增加显著,东北部平原区植被覆盖持续退化,总体上植被覆盖持续改善能力较弱。植被NDVI对气候响应的季节差异显著,且不同类型植被对气候因子的响应不一致:春季植被NDVI主要受温度影响,夏季植被NDVI主要受降水量影响,秋季林地NDVI与温度正相关、草地NDVI与降雨量正相关。


Vegetation plays a critical role in global carbon, water and energy fluxes and the earth’s climate. Satellite remote sensing is the only practical approach to obtain observational evidence of trends and changes across large regions of vegetation cover. The Heilongjiang Basin within China is a critical hotspot for bio-diversity. In this paper, the spatial distribution and temporal variations of vegetation covered area in the Heilongjiang Basin within China was analyzed based on MODIS NDVI datasets with a spatial resolution of 250 m×250 m from 2000 to 2014. NDVI was used as a proxy for vegetation cover and the Theil-sen Median trend analysis with the Mann-Kendall test were both used to analyze NDVI trends. The combination of the result of Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test,as well as the result of Hurst index were conducted to analyze the sustainability in NDVI trend.Patterns of change in NDVI and their linkage with climate change were also analyzed. The results indicate that: 1) The values of annual NDVI in the vegetation covered area fluctuated between 0.41and 0.46 in the Heilongjiang Basin within China from 2000 to 2014. The NDVI values had increased 0.06% annually over this fifteen-year period. 2) As to the spatial distribution of NDVI, high values of NDVI were located in Da Hinggan, Xiao Hinggan and the Changbai Mountains. Median values of NDVI were located in the northern Songnen Plain, the Sanjiang Plain and the north-central Hulun Buir Grassland. And low values of NDVI were in the western Hulun Buir. 3) From the spatial trends of NDVI, the ratio of increased NDVI values occupied 48.51% of the vegetation covered area, while decreased NDVI values occupied 37.15% and 14.39% remained unchanged. 4) Analysis of sustainability of NDVI trend indicated that 27.17% of the vegetation-covered area presented a sustainable-increased state, 26.62% of the vegetation-covered area presented a sustainable-decreased state, 7.2% of the vegetation-covered area showed a sustainable-unchanged state, and 39.01% of vegetation-covered area could not be identified in the future.5) The vegetation growth in the study area was regulated by climate change. Temperature was the most important driving factor in spring and autumn, whereas precipitation in summer. 6) Also human activity played dual influence on vegetation cover change. Farmland and grassland turned into forestry which led to vegetation cover growth somewhere, and forestry and grassland turned into farmland led to vegetation cover decreased elsewhere. This research is useful for identifying the driving forces behind vegetation cover changes and to support environmental policy development in the Heilongjiang Basin within China.

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1990~2015年韩国土地覆被变化及其驱动因素
于皓,张柏,王宗明,任春颖,毛德华,贾明明
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1755-1763.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.018
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (9410KB)

以中等分辨率Landsat系列影像为数据源,利用面向对象的图像分析(OBIA)方法,研究1990~2015年韩国土地覆被变化的主要特征与驱动因素。研究发现:近25 a来,韩国人工表面、林地、湿地、耕地和水体面积变化较大。人工表面扩张最为明显,面积增加了1 847.24 km2(+38.97%),主要发生在以首尔为中心的首都圈地区,多由耕地和林地转化而来。林地、湿地和耕地面积分别减少776.71 km2、707.32 km2和426.65 km2 。过去25 a间韩国土地覆被变化主要集中分布在海拔较低(<100 m)和坡度较小(<3°)的区域。人类活动因素,如人口增长、城市扩张、经济发展及政策调控等是造成韩国土地覆被变化的主要原因。


Studying the long-term changes of the terrestrial system of neighboring countries could be of great significance for the utilization of natural resources and environmental management in China. Based on Landsat TM/OLI images, the paper analyzed the characteristics of land cover change and their driving forces in 1990 and 2015 in the Republic of Korea (ROK) by using object-based images analysis (OBIA). The result shows artificial surface, forests, wetlands, cropland and waterbody underwent great changes from 1990 to 2015. Artificial surface had the greatest increase, 1847.24 km2 with an annual rate of 12.54%. The expansion of artificial surface was mainly located at Seoul economic circle, which was converted mainly by cropland and forests. The area of forests, wetlands and cropland decreased by 776.71 km2, 707.32 km2 and 426.65 km2 respectively. In the past 25 years, the land cover changes mainly occurred where the elevation is under 100 m and the slope is less than 3°. The human factors consisting of population growth, urban expansion, economic development and policy regulation and control played an important role in land cover changes in ROK. The achievements of this study could provide scientific basis for the protection and rational utilization of land resources in China, especially in the Northeast China.

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基于GIS的斜坡单元划分方法改进与实现
颜阁,梁收运,赵红亮
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1764-1770.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.019
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (6332KB)

斜坡单元已广泛应用于滑坡易发性制图和地质灾害评价。然而在山间盆地或大型宽谷处,常规方法划分出的斜坡单元与地貌背景难以匹配。依据高程及其衍生变量的基本形态系统和曲率的流域分割原理,基于ArcGIS技术,通过叠加曲率和反转曲率的流域边界,改进了斜坡单元划分方法。结果表明:与常规方法相比,改进方法不仅能够使用山脊线和山谷线以划分斜坡单元,还能利用台地边界和宽谷边界以分割水平地表与倾斜地表;划分出的单元大小相对均匀,单元形状总体介于圆形和正三角形之间。对于水平成分较多的地区,如黄土塬区和水库库区,该方法与传统方法相比,具有较好的应用前景。


In recent years, slope units have been widely utilized in landslide susceptibility mapping and geological hazard assessment. Slope units automatically derived from high-quality DTMs, partition the territory into hydrological regions between drainage and divide lines. The division method of slope units conducts subwatershed segmentation on elevation and the reversal to extract ridge lines and valley lines, then overlays these terrain feature lines. However, these resultant units are unable to match with geomorphology background where intermountain basins or large open valleys exist. In this article, according to the basic morphometic system of elevation and the derived variables, slope is derivative of elevation while curvature is that of slope, thus the break of slope should be indicated by curvature instead of elevation. The disability of indicating variation of slope is regarded as the main reason for the limitation in the conventional method. According to the theory of watershed segmentation of mean curvature, the division method of slope units is improved by overlaying watershed boundaries on curvature and the reversal in ArcGIS. Firstly, the DEM should be smoothed twice with a 5×5 average filter in order to reduce the effect of noise and small scale variation in the DEM. The curvature is then calculated from the filtered DEM using the Arctool named Curvature. After that, watershed boundaries are generated mainly through computing flow direction, scouting sink and dividing watershed in the curvature image, and this image should be reversed for watershed boundaries on the reversal curvature. Finally, slope units can be separated from each other by these two kinds of boundaries which are further combined into the boundaries of slope units. Giving an example from Huachi County of Gansu Province, elevation layer in the resolution of 20 m was used as input data, and both two methods were then applied for slope unit division. Compared with the conventional method, the revised approach not only uses ridge lines and valley lines to segment slope units, but also utilizes tableland boundaries and open valley boundaries to separate horizontal surface from the inclined. The revised approach may give a new definition that slope units should be divided by ridge lines, valley lines, tableland boundaries and open valley boundaries. Also the revised method utilizes watershed segmentation on curvature instead of subwatershed division on DEM where filling sinks perhaps causes the serious change of reversal elevation. Furthermore, the resultant units have relatively uniform size and shape, more than 80% of them with the area from 0.1×104 to 6×104m2 and about 60% between circle and triangle shape, which are more suitable for landslide hazard evaluation. It is worth mentioning that the revised method would be more competitive than the original in some regions with large area of horizontal surface, just like Loess Tableland and reservoir surface.

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近50年新疆天山奎屯河流域冰川变化及其对水资源的影响
张慧,李忠勤,牟建新,何海迪
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1771-1777.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.020
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2972KB)

基于地形图、遥感影像、气象与水文资料,对气候变化背景下奎屯河流域近50 a冰川变化及其对水资源的影响进行了研究。结果表明:1964~2015年该流域冰川面积减小了约65.4 km2,冰储量亏损了约4.39 km3,且2000年后冰川消融与退缩加快。消融期内正积温增大带来的冰川物质支出(消融)高于源自年内降水的冰川物质收入(积累)是造成该流域冰川消融与退缩的主要原因。1964~2010年该流域径流年际变化总体呈上升趋势,1993年后径流增加趋势显著,且周期性丰枯变化发生了改变。52 a间该流域冰储量亏损引发的水资源损失量达39.5×108m3,年均亏损量约占多年平均径流量的12%,且20世纪80年代后冰川融水在径流中所占比重增大。


Based on topographic maps, remote sensing images, meteorological and hydrological data, glacier change and its impact on water resources are investigated in the Kuytun River Basin under the background of climatic change. Results show that glacier area decreased by 65.4 km2 with a retreating rate of -32.6%, 31 glaciers disappeared, and mean glacier area reduced by 0.19 km2 from 1964 to 2015. Loss of glacier volume is approximately 4.39 km3 with an annual loss rate of 0.084 km3 in 52 years. APAC(Annual percentage of area change)increases since 2000,which indicates that accelerated glacier shrinkage is observed.

Annual mean temperature in the basin exhibits a marked rising trend over the study period with a tendency rate of 0.39℃/10a. Results of MK(Mann-Kendall) mutation test indicate that mutation point of annual mean temperature occurs in 1988, and annual mean temperature increased rapidly since 1988.There is no mutation year for annual precipitation, which exhibits a slightly decreased tendency from 1964 to 2009. Present-day glacier shrinkage is a mix response to past and current climate fluctuation, and glacier ablation is highly correlated to the positive accumulated temperature over the ablation period, while accumulation is originated from the annual precipitation. The analysis shows that expenditure of glacier mass (ablation) caused by the positive accumulated temperature increase during the ablation period larger than mass income (accumulation) originated from annual precipitation is the main reason for glacier retreat.

There is a rising trend for annual runoff with a tendency rate of 0.13×108m3/10a from 1964 to 2010, and mean annual runoff is approximately 6.54×108m3. Annual runoff is on the decline from 1964 to 1993, but displays an upward tendency since 1993. Results of wavelet analysis show that there exists the periodic fluctuation of 3-15 years approximately for annual runoff, which also change since 1993, and maximum wet season appears in the period of 1995-2000. Results of MK mutation test show that no mutation year is found for annual runoff in 47 years.

Net loss of water resources caused by glacier ablation is approximately 39.5×108m3 with an annual loss rate of 0.76×108m3/a, which accounts for 12% of mean annual runoff over the study period. Affected by climatic warming, glacial meltwater increased since 1980s and its proportion in annual runoff rose. Besides, glacier coverage of the basin decreased by 3.4% in 52 years. With the ice loss gradually, the contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff would decrease step by step in the future forecasting warming scenario. Despite the importance of glacier for the local hydrological cycle, there is urgent necessity to reinforce the monitoring and study of glacier status, which could provide the better decision-making value for assessment, allocation and sustainable utilization of local water resources.

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基于OWA的大理市土地生态安全评价研究
张洪,王安琦,宋贝扬
地理科学. 2017, 37 (11): 1778-1784.   DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.021
摘要   RICH HTML PDF (2540KB)

从自然生态环境角度出发,从自然因子、生态环境因子、景观因子3个层面选取16项评价指标建立大理市土地生态安全评价体系,并运用IDRISI软件中的MCE模块进行有序加权平均算子(OWA)多准则决策评价,得到不同决策风险系数下的大理市土地生态安全评价结果。结果显示,由于决策者风险态度不同,得到土地生态安全评价结果差异较大,在实际应用中,必须结合研究区的实际情况以及规划的目的选择不同的风险系数进行评价,才能得到更加真实有效的结果。


Starting from the angle of natural ecological environment, this article selects 16 indicators to establish the land ecological security evaluation system in Dali City from three aspects of natural factors, environmental factors, landscape factors, and uses the MCE module of IDRISI software of OWA multi criteria decision making evaluation of Dali land ecological security evaluation results of different decision under risk coefficient. The results showed that the different risk attitudes of decision makers, difference of land ecological security evaluation results. In practical application, the study area must be combined with the actual situation as well as planning to select different risk coefficient evaluation, to get a more realistic and effective results. As a whole, the land ecological security in Dali City is getting better and better as the decision risk factor increases.

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1990-01-20
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1989-05-20
pp.197-290
No.2
1989-03-20
pp.97-194
No.1
1989-01-20
pp.1-93
1988
Vol.8
No.4 
1988-07-20
pp.301-394
No.3
1988-05-20
pp.201-294
No.2
1988-03-20
pp.101-198
No.1
1988-01-20
pp.1-98
1987
Vol.7
No.4 
1987-07-20
pp.297-390
No.3
1987-05-20
pp.197-293
No.2
1987-03-20
pp.101-194
No.1
1987-01-20
pp.1-98
1986
Vol.6
No.4 
1986-07-20
pp.293-388
No.3
1986-05-20
pp.197-292
No.2
1986-03-20
pp.101-196
No.1
1986-01-20
pp.1-100
1985
Vol.5
No.3 
1985-05-20
pp.193-286
No.2
1985-03-20
pp.123-192
No.1
1985-01-20
pp.1-96
1984
Vol.4
No.4 
1984-07-20
pp.293-392
No.3
1984-05-20
pp.197-298
No.2
1984-03-20
pp.97-194
No.1
1984-01-20
pp.1-96
1983
Vol.3
No.4 
1983-07-20
pp.287-386
No.3
1983-05-20
pp.191-286
No.2
1983-03-20
pp.95-189
No.1
1983-01-20
pp.1-94
1982
Vol.2
No.4 
1982-07-20
pp.291-389
No.3
1982-05-20
pp.193-290
No.2
1982-03-20
pp.97-192
No.1
1982-01-20
pp.1-96
1981
Vol.1
No.2 
1981-03-20
pp.97-188
No.1
1981-01-20
pp.1-95


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