• •

### 基于社区的台风灾害概率风险评估——以上海市杨浦区富禄里居委地区为例

1. 1.上海师范大学地理系, 上海 200062
2.华东师范大学地理系, 上海 200062
3.上海工程技术大学工商管理系, 上海 201620
• 收稿日期:2011-03-10 修回日期:2011-06-03 出版日期:2012-03-25 发布日期:2012-03-25
• 作者简介:

作者简介：温家洪（1966-）,男,江西兴国人,教授,博导,理学博士,主要从事灾害风险建模、风险分析与管理、遥感与GIS应用研究。E-mail: jhwen@shnu.edu.cn

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（40730526、41071324）、上海市重点学科建设项目（S03406）、上海市科委创新行动计划（08240514000）项目资助

### Probabilistic Community-based Typhoon Disaster Risk Assessment: A Case of Fululi Community, Shanghai

Jia-hong WEN1(), Hui HUANG1, Ke CHEN2, Xin-liang YE1,3, Heng-zhi HU1, Zhen-yang HUA1

1. 1.Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China
2. Department of Geography,East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China
3. School of Management, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai, 201620, China
• Received:2011-03-10 Revised:2011-06-03 Online:2012-03-25 Published:2012-03-25

Abstract:

Intense tropic cyclones, one of the major natural hazards prevailing in Shanghai, cause significant social and economic losses almost every year. In this paper, probabilistic community-based risk assessment is carried out, taking Fululi community of Yangpu District, Shanghai, for an example. The annual exceedance probabilities of the maximum wind speed and accumulated rainfall are calculated based on Shanghai tropic cyclone meteorological data in 1949-2008. Combined with the data interpreted from 4 m resolution aerial photograph acquired in 2006, relief altitude difference data measured by leveling, and damage and loss data by tropic cyclones from in situ investigations, questionnaires and interviews in Fululi, the hazards, elements at risk, and risk under specific scenarios are assessed. The result shows: 1) The annual exceedance probability of maximum wind speed 17.2 m/s is 12%. The largest accumulated rainfall during one typhoon process is 306 mm, and its annual exceedance probability is 1.8%. 2) On the scenario of 12% AEP of maximum wind speed, there are 52 (or 15.3%) buildings with losses in Fululi. 34 of the 52 buildings have losses between 0-100 yuan (RMB), 11 buildings have losses between 150- 200 yuan, 4 have loss of 300 yuan, 1 has loss of 500 yuan, and 2 have loss of 600 yuan. 47 of these, covering more than 90%, are residence buildings. There are 7 buildings with strong wind losses larger than 250 yuan, of which 5 belong to old masonry-timber structure and other 2 buildings belong to old brick-masonry structure. 3) On the scenario of accumulated rainfall AEP equal to 1.8%, the deepest inundation depth is 0.61 m in Fululi. There are 115 (or 33.8 %) buildings that have losses by rainstore, and all these buildings are for residence. Of the 115 buildings, 11 have losses between 0-200 RMB yuan; 55 have losses between 200-500 yuan; 31, 500-1 000 yuan; 13, 1000-1500 yuan; and 5, around 2000 yuan. Most of the buildings, covering 77.8 %, with losses larger than 500 yuan are old brick-masonry structure and old masonry-timber structure. According to the investigations, the water depth less than 5 cm causes little damage and loss of the resident properties. When the water depth reaches 15 cm, it will lead to some losses, and if the water depth is larger than 30 cm, it will cause relatively larger losses. Though the strong wind and accumulated rainfall induced losses are not as serious as a big disaster to the residents there, i.e., the risk is acceptable, but it is necessary to make emergency planning to cope with more serious extreme events in future.

• P444