关键词: 台风, 概率风险, 参与式GIS, 社区, 上海

Abstract:

Intense tropic cyclones, one of the major natural hazards prevailing in Shanghai, cause significant social and economic losses almost every year. In this paper, probabilistic community-based risk assessment is carried out, taking Fululi community of Yangpu District, Shanghai, for an example. The annual exceedance probabilities of the maximum wind speed and accumulated rainfall are calculated based on Shanghai tropic cyclone meteorological data in 1949-2008. Combined with the data interpreted from 4 m resolution aerial photograph acquired in 2006, relief altitude difference data measured by leveling, and damage and loss data by tropic cyclones from in situ investigations, questionnaires and interviews in Fululi, the hazards, elements at risk, and risk under specific scenarios are assessed. The result shows: 1) The annual exceedance probability of maximum wind speed 17.2 m/s is 12%. The largest accumulated rainfall during one typhoon process is 306 mm, and its annual exceedance probability is 1.8%. 2) On the scenario of 12% AEP of maximum wind speed, there are 52 (or 15.3%) buildings with losses in Fululi. 34 of the 52 buildings have losses between 0-100 yuan (RMB), 11 buildings have losses between 150- 200 yuan, 4 have loss of 300 yuan, 1 has loss of 500 yuan, and 2 have loss of 600 yuan. 47 of these, covering more than 90%, are residence buildings. There are 7 buildings with strong wind losses larger than 250 yuan, of which 5 belong to old masonry-timber structure and other 2 buildings belong to old brick-masonry structure. 3) On the scenario of accumulated rainfall AEP equal to 1.8%, the deepest inundation depth is 0.61 m in Fululi. There are 115 (or 33.8 %) buildings that have losses by rainstore, and all these buildings are for residence. Of the 115 buildings, 11 have losses between 0-200 RMB yuan; 55 have losses between 200-500 yuan; 31, 500-1 000 yuan; 13, 1000-1500 yuan; and 5, around 2000 yuan. Most of the buildings, covering 77.8 %, with losses larger than 500 yuan are old brick-masonry structure and old masonry-timber structure. According to the investigations, the water depth less than 5 cm causes little damage and loss of the resident properties. When the water depth reaches 15 cm, it will lead to some losses, and if the water depth is larger than 30 cm, it will cause relatively larger losses. Though the strong wind and accumulated rainfall induced losses are not as serious as a big disaster to the residents there, i.e., the risk is acceptable, but it is necessary to make emergency planning to cope with more serious extreme events in future.

Key words: Key Words: typhoon, probabilistic risk, participator GIS, community, Shanghai