地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 356-361.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.356

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基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险区划研究——以安徽省为例

唐为安1(), 田红1, 杨元建2, 卢燕宇1, 徐光清1, 温华洋1, 王胜1   

  1. 1.安徽省气候中心, 安徽 合肥 230031
    2.安徽省气象科学研究所, 安徽 合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2011-01-08 修回日期:2011-04-02 出版日期:2012-03-25 发布日期:2012-03-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:唐为安(1980-),男,江苏阜宁人,工程师,硕士,主要从事气候变化及其对农业影响评估研究。E-mail: twa_1980@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局公益性行业专项“全球变化背景下中国气象灾害风险区划研究”(GYHY200906019)、国家自然科学基金项目(41105080)资助

Risk Zonation of Cold Disaster Based on GIS: A Case Study of Anhui Province

Wei-an TANG1(), Hong TIAN1, Yuan-jian YANG2, Yan-yu LU1, Guang-qing XU1, Hua-yang WEN1, Sheng WANG1   

  1. 1.Anhui Province Climate Center, Hefei, Anhui 230031, China
    2. Anhui Institute of Meteorological Science, Hefei, Anhui 230031, China
  • Received:2011-01-08 Revised:2011-04-02 Online:2012-03-25 Published:2012-03-25

摘要:

以安徽省为例,基于自然灾害风险形成原理,利用气象、基础地理信息、农业和社会经济等方面数据,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及抗灾能力等4个方面来综合评估安徽省低温冷冻灾害风险程度的地区差异,最终建立综合的灾害风险指数,并将该指数应用于安徽省低温冷冻灾害进行风险区划及结果验证。结果表明,安徽省低温灾害风险评估模型比较客观,较全面地反映出安徽省的低温冷冻灾害风险水平。

关键词: 低温冷冻灾害, 自然灾害风险理论, GIS技术, 风险区划, 安徽省

Abstract:

Using the meteorological, geographical, agricultural and socio-economical data, the four indexes, including the danger of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of disaster-formative environments, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and the capability of disaster prevention, were presented and used to analyze the regional difference of cold disaster in Anhui Province based on the natural disaster risk theory. Furthermore, a comprehensive risk index model of cold disaster was constructed to zone the risk of cold disaster in Anhui Province using the above four disaster risk indexes and GIS. Finally, the zonation results were validated by the historical disaster data. The results showed that the cold disaster risk assessment model of Anhui Province was reasonable and objective, and its assessment results were relatively suitable for the fact of clod disaster risk in Anhui Province. Particularly, the high risk zones of cold disaster were mainly located in the northern areas of Anhui Province and the some mountainous areas, and the low risk of cold disaster zones were mainly located near water and cities areas in Anhui Province. Comparing with the historical disaster data, the zonation of cold disaster results were in accordance with the actual distributions. This work provided convincing evidences to assess, prevent and reduce natural cold disaster.

Key words: cold disaster, risk theory of natural disaster, GIS, risk zonation, Anhui Province

中图分类号: 

  • P931