西北干旱区乡村性评价及驱动机制研究——以甘肃武威为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于武威市1949~2013年65 a的社会经济统计数据,以县域为基本单元构建乡村性指标体系,通过测算各县区乡村性指数和分异指数来分析乡村性的时间演变和空间分异,并从社会经济和技术经济两个维度探讨了乡村性演变的影响因素。结果表明：① 1949~2013年间武威市各县区乡村性指数总体呈减弱趋势,但减弱幅度和速度存在差异。② 各县区乡村性分异指数呈波动增长趋势,2000年以后乡村性分异指数急剧增长,表明各县区乡村性差异越来越大。③ 社会经济和技术经济是影响乡村性变动的两大动因,各因素的发展致使城乡差距缩小、乡村性水平减弱、城乡一体化发展趋势明显。

关键词: 乡村性, 分异指数, 驱动机制, 武威市

Abstract:

Rural development occupies an important position in arid regions of northwest China. Along with the implementation of Western Development Strategy and the Construction of New Socialist Countryside, rural development in arid regions of northwest China embraces a new round of change. Study on dynamic change features and influencing factors of rurality and its driving mechanism, taking Wuwei City of Gansu Province as an example, is of great theoretical and practical significance to the formation of rural development plans and strategies in northwest arid areas based on local conditions. With the support of the socio-economic statistic data of Wuwei City in 65 years, this paper constructed rurality index system with county as the basic unit, calculated the rurality indexes of various counties and districts by factor analysis method and analyzed the time evolution and space differentiation of rurality levels by virtue of simple linear regression model and rurality differentiation index model. Moreover, the influencing factors of rurality evolution and its driving mechanism were also discussed from aspects of social economy and technical economy. As the results showed, 1) The rurality indexes of various counties and districts in Wuwei City in 1949-2013 decreased on the whole, but the reducing degrees and speed differed. The annual decline of rurality indexes remained large in general, while the variation coefficient kept increasing. Three stages were divided according to rurality indexes: high rurality (1949-1978), moderate rurality (1979-2003) and low rurality (2004-2013). 2) The rurality differentiation indexes in various counties and districts showed a trend of fluctuations in growth, which indicated that the rurality differentiation was growing large, especially after the year of 2000, when the differentiation indexes fluctuated significantly and increased rapidly, and the rurality indexes changed greatly along with prominent unbalanced economic development. 3) Social economy and technical economy are two major factors affecting the change of rurality. During the process of industrial structure adjustment, traffic improvement, intensified government policy support, rural labor force transfer, advancement of agricultural mechanization level and adjustment of planting structure, the urban-rural gap is narrowing down, rurality is constantly weakening and the development of urban and rural integration becomes a major trend.

Key words: rurality, differentiation index, driving mechanism, Wuwei City

中图分类号:

F320.3

聂晓英, 石培基, 张学斌, 吕蕊, 朱艳芬, 魏伟. 西北干旱区乡村性评价及驱动机制研究——以甘肃武威为例[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(4): 585-594.

Xiaoying Nie, Peiji Shi, Xuebin Zhang, Rui Lyu, Yanfen Zhu, Wei Wei. Research on Rurality Evaluation and the Driving Mechanism in Arid Regions of Northwest China: A Case Study of Wuwei City in Gansu Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(4): 585-594.

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指标	计算方法	指标说明
耕地变化率	（末期耕地面积–初期耕地面积）/初期耕地面积	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强)
农业人口变化率	（末期农业人口–初期农业人口）/初期农业人口	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
人均粮食产量	粮食总产量/末期农业人口	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
一产发展水平	第一产业产值/生产总值	正指标（值越大,乡村性越强）
农业土地生产率	农业总产值/耕地总面积	逆指标（值越小,乡村性越强）
农业劳动生产率	农林牧渔总产值/农业人口	逆指标（值越小,乡村性越强）
农村居民生活水平	农村居民人均纯收入	逆指标（值越小,乡村性越强）

年份	凉州区			民勤县				古浪县				天祝县
年份	乡村性指数		排名	变化系数		乡村性指数	排名	变化系数	乡村性指数	排名	变化系数	乡村性指数	排名	变化系数
1949~1953	62.71	3	-	62.72	2	-		63.36	1	-		61.97	4	-
1954~1958	61.97	2	0.74	61.17	4	1.55		63.07	1	0.29		61.52	3	0.45
1959~1963	61.30	4	0.67	62.43	2	-1.25		63.49	1	-0.42		62.29	3	-0.77
1964~1968	61.56	3	-0.27	60.24	4	2.19		63.24	1	0.25		61.98	2	0.31
1969~1973	61.67	2	-0.11	58.20	4	2.04		62.95	1	0.29		61.67	3	0.32
1974~1978	59.80	3	1.87	58.47	4	-0.27		62.25	1	0.70		61.11	2	0.56
1979~1983	55.35	3	4.45	54.36	4	4.11		61.71	2	0.54		67.86	1	-6.75
1984~1988	54.91	3	0.44	53.84	4	0.52		60.88	1	0.83		56.93	2	10.93
1989~1993	53.43	3	1.48	50.97	4	2.87		60.10	1	0.78		56.82	2	0.11
1994~1998	46.46	3	6.97	46.42	4	4.54		55.28	1	4.82		54.70	2	2.12
1999~2003	40.25	3	6.21	40.13	4	6.30		50.30	1	4.98		44.61	2	10.08
2004~2008	29.21	4	11.04	30.69	3	9.44		48.36	1	1.94		45.86	2	-1.24
2009~2013	11.86	4	17.35	13.26	3	17.43		37.12	1	11.24		36.34	2	9.52

阶段划分（年份）	解释变量	控制变量
阶段划分（年份）	乡村性指数	第一产业占GDP比重（%）	人均GDP（元）
高度乡村性（1949~1978）	（60,100]	（60,100]	（5 000,∞）
中度乡村性（1979~2003）	（40,60]	（30,60]	（200,5 000]
低度乡村性（2004~2013）	[0,40]	[0,30]	[0,200]

城市	二、三产业比例均值（%）	R²	皮尔森相关系数	T统计量	sig.	非标准化系数（B）	常数项
凉州区	43.839	0.749	-0.865^**	-5.724	0.000	-0.059	76.531
民勤县	34.660	0.633	-0.795^**	-4.351	0.001	-0.765	76.740
古浪县	27.829	0.841	-0.917^**	-7.618	0.000	-0.282	65.700
天祝县	43.281	0.866	-0.930^**	-8.421	0.000	-0.322	70.353