地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 1218-1226.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.08.003

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ZG市非接触型诈骗被害相对发生概率的性别差异

张春霞1,2(), 柳林3,4, 周素红2()   

  1. 1.广东工程职业技术学院管理工程学院,广东 广州 510520
    2.中山大学地理科学与规划学院综合地理信息研究中心,广东 广州 510275
    3.广州大学地理科学学院公共安全地理信息分析中心,广东 广州 510006
    4.辛辛那提大学地理系,辛辛那提OH45221-0131,美国
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-25 修回日期:2018-07-05 出版日期:2018-08-20 发布日期:2018-08-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张春霞(1982-),女,山东郓城人,讲师,博士研究生,主要从事犯罪地理与旅游地理研究。E-mail:zcx020@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB0505500,2018YFB0505503)、国家自然科学基金重点项目(41531178)、广州市科学研究计划重点项目(201804020016)、广东省自然科学基金研究团队项目(2014A030312010)资助、广州市哲学社会科学发展“十三五”规划项目(2018GZGJ129)资助

Gender Difference on Relative Probability of Non-contact Fraud in ZG City

Chunxia Zhang1,2(), Lin Liu3,4, Suhong Zhou2()   

  1. 1. Department of Management Engineering, Guangdong Engineering Polytechnic, Guangzhou 510520, Guangdong, China
    2. Center of Integrated Geographic Information Analysis, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China
    3. Center of Geographic Information Analysis for Public Security, School of Geographic Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, China
    4. Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati OH45221-0131, Ohio, USA
  • Received:2018-05-25 Revised:2018-07-05 Online:2018-08-20 Published:2018-08-20
  • Supported by:
    National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFB0505500, 2018YFB0505503), Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (41531178), Key Project of Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou City (201804020016), Research Team Program of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2014A030312010) ,The 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Philosophy and Social Science in Guangzhou(2018GZGJ129)

摘要:

利用ZG市老城区2015~2016年具有个人属性的诈骗警情数据,分析女性和男性遭受非接触型诈骗相对接触型诈骗的发生概率,建立多层次Logit回归模型研究其影响因素的差异。结果表明,两性别非接触型诈骗被害的相对发生概率均受制于个体和社区两个层次因素的影响,且社区层次均发挥主要作用。其中,女性和男性在个体层次的影响因素类似,表现为本地户籍的高水平受教育者在白天更易遭受非接触型诈骗的侵害。但在社区层次的影响因素迥异,在外来人口少、银行网点少、离婚丧偶率低、有高校的本地年轻人为主的社区,女性非接触型诈骗被害相对发生概率高;而在租房比例高、农业人口少、大型零售商业网点少、低教育水平人口比例少的外来中高收入白领为主的社区,男性非接触型诈骗被害相对发生概率则更高。

关键词: 非接触型诈骗, 被害发生概率, 被害性别差异, 分层线性模型

Abstract:

While fraud has become more prevalent in today's society, there has been few study on gender differences on fraud, and even fewer on the contributing factors of such differences, especially in the context of non-contact fraud (NCF) vs contact fraud (CF). This article aims to narrow this gap by examining fraud data from the police of ZG old city, covering the period from 2015 to 2016, to reveal possible relationships between fraud and individual characteristics of the victims. Results of hierarchical linear models (HLM) on the ratio of NCF/CF suggest that both personal and community factors play an important role for females and males, especially the latter. Specifically, local household registration status, time of fraud in terms of day vs night, and the level of education of the individuals, show similar strength and direction for both females and males. At the community level, risk factors are totally different across different genders. The percent of colleges and the young people show significant positive correlation, while the number of bank branches, percent of migrant population and divorce rate pose a negative impact for female victims. For male victims, percent of rental properties shows a positive correlation while level of education, percent of agricultural population and existence of large retail outlets have negative impacts. Findings of this study adds to the literature on fraud, and may provide insight on developing strategies for fraud prevention and reduction.

Key words: non-contact fraud, the probability, gender differences, hierarchical linear model

中图分类号: 

  • K901