地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 50-59.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.01.007
收稿日期:
2019-07-02
修回日期:
2019-09-14
出版日期:
2020-01-10
发布日期:
2020-03-17
通讯作者:
刘彦随
E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:
郭远智(1990-),男,江西南康人,博士,助研,主要从事城乡发展与贫困地理学研究。E-mail: guoyz.16b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
Guo Yuanzhi1, Zhou Yang1,2, Liu Yansui1,2()
Received:
2019-07-02
Revised:
2019-09-14
Online:
2020-01-10
Published:
2020-03-17
Contact:
Liu Yansui
E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
以农村户籍人口和常住人口及两者表征的农村人口外流率为研究对象,利用“五普”和“六普”数据探讨了中国农村人口外流的演化及其空间格局,在预选取影响因素的基础上,基于空间计量模型剖析了县域农村人口外流率的地域分异机制。结果显示:农村人口发展演化可划分为缓慢发展阶段、大量外流阶段、农业转移人口市民化发展阶段3个时期;全国县域农村人口外流率呈现出程度不断加深的态势,农业户籍人口和乡村常住人口的集中度下降明显,并呈现出明显的空间聚类和空间正相关性;平均海拔、人均GDP、城乡居民收入比、第一产业占比、城镇化率、道路密度、受教育水平、人均固定资产投资与农村人口外流率呈现出正相关关系,而人均耕地面积、农民人均纯收入、乡村从业人员占比与农村人口外流率呈现出负相关关系。
中图分类号:
郭远智, 周扬, 刘彦随. 中国农村人口外流的时空演化及其驱动机制[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(1): 50-59.
Guo Yuanzhi, Zhou Yang, Liu Yansui. Spatial-temporal Evolution of Rural Population Outflow and Its Mechanism in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(1): 50-59.
表4
农村人口外流率的模型估计结果"
OLS | SLM | SEM | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | P值 | 系数 | P值 | 系数 | P值 | |||
常数项 | -71.4766 | 0.1343 | -82.4032 | 0.0841 | -101.0520 | 0.0575 | ||
平均海拔 | 0.0149 | 0.0050 | 0.0155 | 0.0035 | 0.0163 | 0.0099 | ||
坡度 | 1.1652 | 0.0748 | 1.0481 | 0.1087 | 1.1901 | 0.1195 | ||
植被覆盖指数 | -54.0576 | 0.0223 | -49.3763 | 0.0365 | -46.0500 | 0.1012 | ||
人均耕地面积 | -0.1653 | 0.0637 | -0.1644 | 0.0638 | -0.1947 | 0.0259 | ||
人均GDP | 0.0009 | 0.0000 | 0.0009 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0000 | ||
农民人均纯收入 | -0.0096 | 0.0000 | -0.0095 | 0.0000 | -0.0079 | 0.0002 | ||
城乡居民收入比 | 11.6095 | 0.0039 | 11.3539 | 0.0045 | 8.8423 | 0.0398 | ||
城镇化率 | 1.1448 | 0.0000 | 1.1159 | 0.0000 | 0.9850 | 0.0002 | ||
第一产业占比 | 0.6737 | 0.0130 | 0.6716 | 0.0128 | 0.6597 | 0.0252 | ||
道路密度 | 26.3759 | 0.0000 | 24.8624 | 0.0000 | 25.8743 | 0.0000 | ||
受教育水平 | 11.5321 | 0.0050 | 11.8856 | 0.0037 | 12.7946 | 0.0055 | ||
少数民族人口占比 | 0.0609 | 0.5694 | 0.0655 | 0.5388 | 0.0646 | 0.6077 | ||
人均固定资产投资 | 184.5480 | 0.0000 | 183.5580 | 0.0000 | 186.2280 | 0.0000 | ||
乡村从业人员占比 | -9.0067 | 0.0000 | -8.8730 | 0.0000 | -9.9396 | 0.0000 | ||
R2 | 0.7684 | 0.7688 | 0.7768 | |||||
Log-L | -11821.9 | -11820.4 | -11798.0 | |||||
AIC | 23673.8 | 23672.8 | 23626.0 | |||||
SC | 23757.4 | 23761.9 | 23709.6 |
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