山东省绿色发展水平绩效评价与驱动机制——基于17地市面板数据

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.02.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建绿色发展评价指标体系,并利用熵值法、全局莫兰指数、GWR模型等多种计量方法对2005~2016年山东省17地级市绿色发展水平时空分异特征与驱动机制进行了综合研究,结果表明：① 山东省绿色发展“自上而下”指令性特征比较突出,且依赖于物质消耗型规模增长,势必忽视经济要素横向转移反馈作用与产业集群效应;② 山东省绿色发展水平逐年递增,俱乐部收敛特征较为突出,但其年均增长率仅为1.77%反映了产业轻型化与清型化进程缓慢,绿色发展质量提升之路漫长而艰巨;③ 山东省绿色发展经历了空间依存关系不明显到明显的过程,且绿色发展水平存在明显的空间分异态势,两极化发展特征较为明显;④ 加入空间效应的空间加权回归模型更具有解释力,人均GDP、万人R&D人员数、人均固定资产投资等对于绿色发展水平的优化提升起到正向促进作用,第二产业增加值/第三产业增加值对于绿色发展回归系数呈现负相关,实际利用外资对于绿色发展回归系数有正有负。

关键词: 绿色发展, 绿色发展水平绩效, 资源环境, 山东省

Abstract:

This paper comprehensively constructs the performance evaluation index system of green development, and analyzes its spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanism of 17 cities in Shandong Province by using a variety of measurement methods. The results show that: 1) The "top-down" commanding characteristics of green development in Shandong are more prominent, and its development depends on the scale expansion and total growth of economic, and neglects the optimization and promotion of industrial structure and the lateral transfer feedback effect of economic factors; 2) The level of green development in Shandong is increasing, and the characteristics of club convergence are more prominent. But its low growth rate with 1.77% shows that the process of light and clear industry is slow, and the way of improving the green development quality is long and arduous; 3) The green development of Shandong has experienced an obvious process of spatial dependence. And there is obvious spatial differentiation in the green development, and the trend of polarization is obvious; 4) Spatial weighted regression models with spatial effects are more explanatory, and the per capita GDP, the number of R&D personnel and the investment of per capita fixed assets have a positive effect on the improvement of the green development. The second industrial added value / third industrial added value has negative correlation to the regression coefficient of green development, and the actual utilization of foreign capital has positive negative effect on the regression coefficient of green development.

Key words: green development, green development performance evaluation, resource environment, Shandong Province

中图分类号:

F127

郭付友, 吕晓, 于伟, 任嘉敏, 初楠臣. 山东省绿色发展水平绩效评价与驱动机制——基于17地市面板数据[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 200-210.

Guo Fuyou, Lyu Xiao, Yu Wei, Ren Jiamin, Chu Nanchen. Performance Evaluation and Driving Mechanism of Green Development in Shandong Province Based on Panel Data of 17 Cities[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(2): 200-210.

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系统层	准则层	指标层	指标含义	权重
绿色发展水平（LS）	经济绿化度（JL）	人均GDP	反映经济总体发展水平	0.0433
		社会消费品零售总额	反映市场消费能力	0.0934
		第二产业增加值/第三产业增加值	反映产业结构特征	0.0177
		二三产业增加值总额	反映产业规模特征	0.0567
		人均实际利用外资	反映经济发展外向依赖能力	0.1386
	社会绿化度（SL）	万人拥有普通高等学校人数	衡量人口教育水平	0.1195
		万人拥有卫生技术人员数	反映社会医疗保障水平	0.0143
		城乡收入差距比	反映城乡一体化水平	0.0145
		农村恩格尔系数	反映社会整体富裕水平	0.0015
		人均供水量	反映社会供水保障能力	0.0569
	环境绿化度（HL）	人均建成区绿化覆盖面积	反映生态环境保育水平	0.0535
		人均工业废水排放量	反映污染排放水平	0.0466
		一般工业固体废物综合利用率	反映资源环境利用效率	0.0013
		万元GDP能耗	反映资源利用水平	0.0305
		万元GDP电耗	反映资源利用水平	0.0255
	政府支持度（GS）	节能环保支出/一般公共预算支出	反映对节能环保支持力度	0.0592
		科学技术支出/一般公共预算支出	反映对科学技术支持力度	0.0722
		产业高级化系数	反映对产业优化改造力度	0.0191
		人均固定资产投资	反映政府投资强度	0.1091
		民营经济发展指数	反映对市场环境支持力度	0.0264

地级市	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年
济南市	0.332	0.381	0.394	0.416	0.409	0.419	0.466	0.487	0.527	0.540	0.492	0.464
青岛市	0.324	0.339	0.357	0.364	0.381	0.384	0.445	0.488	0.537	0.559	0.473	0.426
淄博市	0.302	0.311	0.316	0.327	0.320	0.348	0.355	0.358	0.364	0.380	0.415	0.393
枣庄市	0.290	0.279	0.291	0.310	0.306	0.324	0.289	0.297	0.302	0.312	0.255	0.240
东营市	0.262	0.284	0.314	0.319	0.321	0.338	0.343	0.345	0.376	0.382	0.381	0.396
烟台市	0.256	0.276	0.304	0.300	0.318	0.338	0.362	0.377	0.397	0.417	0.354	0.330
潍坊市	0.226	0.233	0.261	0.282	0.296	0.316	0.357	0.369	0.380	0.390	0.558	0.307
济宁市	0.208	0.210	0.232	0.239	0.249	0.266	0.267	0.284	0.515	0.304	0.266	0.230
泰安市	0.201	0.204	0.222	0.230	0.230	0.245	0.251	0.269	0.278	0.295	0.244	0.220
威海市	0.259	0.304	0.326	0.310	0.320	0.319	0.335	0.357	0.400	0.444	0.345	0.338
日照市	0.244	0.230	0.253	0.285	0.324	0.346	0.330	0.331	0.392	0.345	0.284	0.269
莱芜市	0.247	0.265	0.287	0.306	0.318	0.330	0.333	0.346	0.342	0.355	0.295	0.286
临沂市	0.192	0.192	0.210	0.207	0.221	0.238	0.237	0.250	0.255	0.264	0.231	0.202
德州市	0.261	0.269	0.261	0.263	0.273	0.289	0.245	0.256	0.268	0.275	0.235	0.217
聊城市	0.244	0.236	0.259	0.280	0.294	0.295	0.268	0.256	0.266	0.270	0.235	0.227
滨州市	0.241	0.266	0.279	0.294	0.301	0.323	0.319	0.359	0.356	0.370	0.419	0.399
菏泽市	0.153	0.161	0.177	0.181	0.186	0.204	0.200	0.201	0.202	0.212	0.205	0.203

年份	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
I	0.0116	0.1228	0.1489	0.1763	0.1602	0.2117
E(I)	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625
Z(I)	0.4319	1.0639	1.1993	1.3450	1.2676	1.5423
年份	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
I	0.2901	0.3121	0.3218	0.2450	0.4339	0.4292
E(I)	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625	-0.0625
Z(I)	1.9850	2.0759	2.2151	1.9639	2.7442	2.6765