中国经济发展方式转变综合评价及时空演化特征研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.02.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于经济高质量发展的核心理念,构建包含经济增长的动能转换、结构优化、绿色发展、稳定开放、人口发展的五维经济发展方式转变评价指标体系。运用“纵横向拉开档次法”对中国及各省域1987~2017年的经济发展方式转变水平进行综合评价,利用ESDA法对其时空特征进行探索,研究表明：① 中国经济发展方式转变水平整体呈逐年上升趋势,特别是2012年后很多省域增速明显,但地区间发展差距较大。② 反映经济发展方式转变的5个维度中,人口发展较好;经济结构优化稳步推进;绿色发展呈现先恶化后改善的趋势,但正成为主导转变的核心动力之一;经济稳定开放能力平稳上升;经济增长动能转换较差,但在呈波动中略上升。③ 空间分异明显,中国经济发展方式转变水平总体呈现出以东部地区为核心、逐步向内陆腹地区域梯度递减的趋势。④ 呈现出较明显的全局空间正相关性,局部空间上主要形成高高和低低集聚类型,存在较明显的交互影响关系。据此提出几点促进新时代中国经济发展方式转变的建议。

关键词: 经济发展方式转变, 纵横向拉开档次法, 空间相关性, 时空演化

Abstract:

The 19th National Congress pointed out that "China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage", indicating that the transformation of the economic development mode is the only way for China's economy to shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and must shift from scale to quality. Based on the core concept of high-quality economic development, this article constructs a five-dimensional economic development mode transformation evaluation index system including economic growth kinetic energy conversion, structural optimization, green development, stable opening and population development. Firstly, the article analyzes the transformation level of economic development mode in China and various provinces from 1987 to 2017 by using the "transverse and horizontal extension method", and then explores its temporal and spatial characteristics by ESDA method. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) China's economic development mode changes overall level. It is on an upward trend year by year, especially after the growth of many provinces in 2012, but the development gap between regions is large. 2) In the five dimensions reflecting the transformation of economic development mode, the population development is better; The economic structure optimization is steadily advancing; the green development shows a trend of deterioration and improvement; the economic stability and opening up ability is steadily rising; the economic growth kinetic energy conversion is poor, but The fluctuations slightly increased. 3) The spatial differentiation is obvious, and the level of China's economic development mode has generally shown a trend of decreasing the gradient in the inland hinterland with the eastern region as the core. 4) A more obvious global spatial positive correlation is presented, and the local spatial mainly forms high and low agglomeration types, and there is a relatively obvious interaction relationship. The policy enlightenment is: 1) Establish the "five developments" concept, reduce environmental pollution through structural upgrading, and accelerate the formation of new development kinetics with science and technology innovation as the core. We will work hard to implement the people-centered development thinking and continuously improve the level of social security and welfare. 2) Play the leading role of the eastern region, increase the investment of funds, technology and talents needed for the western region, and gradually narrow the difference in the economic development mode between the eastern and western regions. 3) It is necessary to fully consider the dynamic evolution of time and space in the transformation of different provincial economic development modes. Based on this, several suggestions are proposed to promote the transformation of China's economic development mode in the new era.

Key words: economic development mode transformation, vertical and horizontal opening method, spatial correlation, space-time evolution

中图分类号:

F922.2

王学义, 熊升银. 中国经济发展方式转变综合评价及时空演化特征研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 220-228.

Wang Xueyi, Xiong Shengyin. Characteristics of Comprehensive Evaluation of Time and Space in the Transformation of China's Economic Development Mode[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(2): 220-228.

图/表 5

表1

经济发展方式转变水平评价指标体系及权重系数

系统层	领域层	测度指标	衡量方式	权重系数
动能转换	创新驱动	高新技术产业增加值占比	高新技术产业增加值额/GDP（%）	0.0515
		新动能行业资本供给	信息传输、计算机服务和软件业的固定资产投资额的对数	0.0633
		R&D经费投入强度	R&D经费/GDP（%）	0.0646
	效率提升	劳动生产率	GDP/全社会从业人员	0.0557
		资本生产率	GDP/全社会固定资产投资	0.0541
		能源生产率	GDP/能源消耗总量	0.0448
结构优化	产业结构	第三产业强度	第三产业增加值/GDP（%）	0.0267
	产业结构	产业结构的合理化	产业结构合理化指数	0.0388
	城乡结构	城市化水平	城市化率（%）	0.0377
	城乡结构	城乡收入比	农村居民人均纯收入/城镇居民人均可支配收入	0.0291
	投资消费结构	第三产业投资占比	第三产业投资/GDP（%）	0.0284
	投资消费结构	恩格尔系数	居民食品支出/消费支出比重^*（%）	0.0249
绿色发展	绿化环保	森林植被	森林覆盖率（%）	0.0227
		建成区绿化覆盖率	建成区绿化覆盖率（%）	0.0214
		污染治理强度	工业污染治理投资/GDP（%）	0.0189
	污染减排	单位产出废水排放	单位GDP 废水排放量（t/万元）^*	0.0184
		单位产出废弃物排放	单位GDP工业固定废弃物排放量（t/万元）^*	0.0146
		单位产出废气排放	单位GDP废气排放量（m³/万元）^*	0.0127
稳定开放	经济稳定	产出稳定	经济波动率（%）^*	0.0318
		价格稳定	消费者物价指数^*	0.0259
		就业稳定	城镇登记失业率（%）^*	0.0257
	经济开放	外贸开放度	进出口总额占GDP比重（%）	0.0249
	经济开放	外资开放度	外商直接投资占GDP比重（%）	0.0288
人口发展	人口与经济	消费福利	人均消费支出（元/人）	0.0520
	人口与经济	收入水平	人均可支配收入（元/人）	0.0622
	人口与社会	教育福利	6岁以上人均受教育年限（a）	0.0319
		健康福利	人口死亡率(‰)^*	0.0345
		医疗福利	每万人口卫生技术人员数(人/万)	0.0271
	人口与环境	休闲福利	人均公园绿地面积（m²/人）	0.0269

表1

图 1

图 2

表2

1987~2017年经济发展方式转变全局自相关检验结果

年份	1987	1997	2007	2017
Moran's $I$ 指数	0.312	0.341	0.457	0.446
$P$ 值	0.001	0..001	0.002	0.002
$Z$ 检验值	2.511	2.570	2.643	2.622

表2

图 3

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