湖南省武陵山片区人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同演化及其减贫效应研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.11.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用协同度模型、空间ESDA、趋势面分析和面板计量回归模型，分析湖南省武陵山片区2001—2017年人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同的时空演化特征及其减贫效应。研究发现：湖南省武陵山片区人口城镇化与流通产业协同发展整体呈上升趋势但水平偏低，不同板块间协同水平差异显著且有扩大倾向；具有“集聚–分散–集聚”空间循环过程，局部空间极化效应明显，形成邵阳板块的显著热点区和湘西自治州板块的显著冷点区；协同发展“东高西低”空间分布格局更趋明显，“北高南低”分布态势减弱；两者协同发展对农民收入提升、贫困减缓具有显著正向促进作用，进一步空间效应分解发现协同减贫的空间正外溢性显著；实施人口城镇化与流通产业发展“双轮”协同驱动战略是实现乡村振兴的现实需要，也是落实高质量脱贫方略的重要支撑。

关键词: 湖南省武陵山片区, 流通产业发展, 人口城镇化, 协同发展, 减贫效应

Abstract:

Poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken areas has reached the decisive stage, which is more arduous and complicated. Based on the coordinative interactive mechanism, this article uses the coupling coordination model, spatial ESDA, trend surface analysis to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of population urbanization and circulation industry synergy about the Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province from 2001 to 2017. Subsequently, using the panel and space panel econometric model quantitatively measures the impact of synergistic development on poverty alleviation in the Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province. The results can be drawn as follows: 1) The synergy of population urbanization and circulation industry development is up from 2001 to 2017. There are still some significant differences among different plates in the Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province, and that the gap of coordination between population urbanization and circulation industry in plates emerges a expansion tendency. 2) On the basis of ESDA, an “agglomeration-dispersal-agglomeration” spatial cycle process of synergistic development has been produced in general. And the local spatial polarization effect is obvious, which is forming a significant hot spot in the Shaoyang plate but a significant cold spot in the Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture plate. 3) Commence from the space analysis, there is a more obvious the spatial distribution pattern of “high in the East and low in the west” on synergy, however the distribution trend of “high in the north and low in the south” is weakened; 4) The panel and space measurement results show that synergistic development of population urbanization and circulation industry has a significant and positive promoting effect on farmers’ income and poverty reduction, and further decomposition of spatial effects reflects that the spatial positive spillover of synergistic poverty reduction is notable, which plays an driving role of optimizing spatial allocation of resources, promoting the alleviation of local poverty as well as releasing the spatial spillover effect, so as to achieve the overall regional poverty alleviation. Therefore, the implementation of the “two-wheeled” coordinated strategy of population urbanization and the development of the circulation industry has been proved to be the practical needs of Rural Revitalization, which also has an important support for implementing high quality poverty alleviation strategy. A series of supporting measures should be adapted to promote the internal synergism level of population urbanization and circulation industry, and achieve the synchronous development of targeted poverty alleviation and high quality economy.

Key words: the Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province, circulation industry development, population urbanization, development of synergy, poverty reduction effect

中图分类号:

F129.9

杨水根, 王露. 湖南省武陵山片区人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同演化及其减贫效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(11): 1909-1920.

Yang Shuigen, Wang Lu. Evolution of Synergy Between Population Urbanization and Circulation Industry Development and Its Poverty Reduction Effect in Wuling Mountain Area of Hunan Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(11): 1909-1920.

图/表 7

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Table 1

The analysis of synergy between circulation industry and population urbanization on poverty reduction effect in Wuling Mountain Area in Hunan Province"

OLS分析				空间杜宾模型
变量	OLS（1）	OLS（2）	GMM（3）	变量	邻接矩阵（W₁）	地理矩阵（W₂）	交通矩阵（W₃）
注：^、^、^*分别表示P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.01的显著性；AR与Saragan*均报告P值；表中报告的SDM模型均为Hausman检验选择的随机效应回归结果。L.lnp为农民收入的滞后一阶项，Log-L为对数似然值，lny为流通产业水平，lnU为人口城镇化水平，lnD为协同发展水平，lnkl为要素禀赋，lngov为政府政策，lntl为产业结构优化。
lnD		1.2179^*** （0.0945）	2.3746^*** （0.0365）	lnD	0.3512^*** （0.1100）	0.3153^*** （0.1088）	0.3612^*** （0.1155）
lnkl	0.2829^*** （0.0169）	0.3215^*** （0.0169）	0.0836^*** （0.0049）	lnkl	0.0269 （0.0171）	0.0068 （0.0173）	0.0437^** （0.0169）
lngov	0.1210^*** （0.0348）	0.0243 （0.0340）	?0.0244^*** （0.0059）	lngov	?0.1196^*** （0.0424）	?0.1584^*** （0.0425）	?0.1387^*** （0.0415）
lntl	0.5154^*** （0.1391）	0.7253^*** （0.1432）	0.0853^* （0.0445）	lntl	0.0726 （0.1155）	0.1219 （0.1155）	0.1030 （0.1187）
lny	0.2170^*** （0.0562）			W*lnD	1.6039^*** （0.1940）	1.6419^*** （0.2381）	1.4154^*** （0.1931）
lnU	0.7422^*** （0.0911）			W*lnkl	0.0282 （0.0234）	0.0346 （0.0272）	0.0017 （0.0211）
				W*lngov	0.1260^* （0.0750）	0.2063^** （0.0984）	0.2515^*** （0.0630）
L. lnp			0.3767^*** （0.0120）	W*lntl	0.4555^* （0.2381）	0.6207^* （0.3474）	0.7159^*** （0.2500）
常数	5.6113 （0.2133）	5.0294^*** （0.2085）	6.1649^*** （0.1052）	ρ	0.4596^*** （0.0397）	0.4579^*** （0.0513）	0.4590^*** （0.0379）
R²	0.8136	0.7960		R²	0.9345	0.9397	0.9284
F/Wald	543.96^***	608.64^***	37899.43^***	Log-L	92.0291	103.7477	76.2104
AR（1）			0.0010	Wald_spatial_lag	43.8040^***	39.1884^***	22.0043^***
AR（2）			0.3063	LR_spatial_lag	41.2960^***	35.7065^***	20.9900^***
Sargan			0.7621	Wald_spatial_error	45.1590^***	38.4789^***	22.5621^***
				LR_spatial_error	42.8027^***	35.4374^***	21.6149^***

Table 1

Table 2

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变量		lnD	lnkl	lngov	lntl
注：^、^、^**分别表示P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.01的显著性；括号内数字表示标准误；lnD为人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同水平，lnkl为要素禀赋，lngov为政府政策，lntl为产业结构优化。
邻接矩阵（W₁）	直接效应	0.5860^***（0.1071）	0.0338^**（0.0156）	?0.1104^***（0.0404）	0.1322（0.1170）
	间接效应	3.0312^***（0.2285）	0.0668^**（0.0335）	0.1313（0.1129）	0.8459^**（0.3932）
	总效应	3.6171^***（0.2415）	0.1006^***（0.0342）	0.0209（0.1236）	0.9781^**（0.4444）
地理矩阵（W₂）	直接效应	0.4224^***（0.1086）	0.0083（0.0164）	?0.1460^***（0.0393）	0.1617（0.1129）
	间接效应	3.1924^***（0.2620）	0.0662（0.0416）	0.2328（0.1603）	1.2592^**（0.5942）
	总效应	3.6149^***（0.2671）	0.0745^*（0.0425）	0.0868（0.1574）	1.4210^**（0.6153）
交通矩阵（W₃）	直接效应	0.6047^***（0.1121）	0.0457^***（0.0160）	?0.1058^***（0.0393）	0.2210^*（0.1199）
	间接效应	2.6835^***（0.2189）	0.0298（0.0300）	0.3162^***（0.0962）	1.3324^***（0.3980）
	总效应	3.2883^***（0.2293）	0.0755^**（0.0338）	0.2104^**（0.1069）	1.5534^***（0.4442）