运用ArcGIS技术、动态度模型和马尔科夫模型,定量分析了1996~2007年珠海旅游用地数量、来源、类型与结构以及空间分布的演变特点、原因及其变化趋势。研究发现,数量变化方面,规模增长迅速;自然生态类旅游用地增长率和动态度最大;各类型旅游用地增长量由自然生态、度假村、主题公园、文化景观到园林游憩依次递减;香洲区旅游用地规模增长最显著,金湾区旅游用地总体动态度最大。来源方面,林地是珠海市旅游用地增长的主要来源;来源于耕地的概率较小;各区旅游用地来源的地类与其所处的自然条件和经济发展状况紧密相关;度假村主要来源于林地和建设用地,文化景观类和主题公园类旅游用地主要来源于建设用地,自然生态类旅游用地主要来源于林地。空间分布演变方面,在积极发展生态休闲度假旅游的背景下,呈现出“十”字形扩展特征,主要集中在东部山地和岛屿;各类旅游用地因资源与客源市场的吸引力不同而呈现不同的演变形态。类型与结构演变方面,以林地变化最突出。珠海旅游用地变化趋势表现为:面积增加,自然生态类旅游用地仍将是规模增长最大的类型,香洲区增长将最为显著;未来旅游用地来源主要为万山群岛的灌木林地和裸地。空间分布主要向“两区一带”(东部海岛生态旅游区、西部休闲旅游区、北部绿地与湿地生态旅游带)演变;受人类影响低的土地利用类型将向受人类影响高的类型转变,旅游设施建设用地比重将不断增加。研究对珠海市旅游用地变化调控和管理都有着重要的理论和借鉴意义。

ArcGIS technology was used to obtain the distribution map of land for tourism in Zhuhai in 1996 and 2007. Dynamic degree model and Markov model were applied to quantitatively analyze the quantity, origin, type, structure and spatial distribution evolution characteristics, as well as the reason and change tendency of the Zhuhai's land for tourism from 1996 to 2007. Conclusion was drawn as follows:①Under the theme of ecological and leisure tourism development in recent years, the scale of the Zhuhai's landuse for tourism grew rapidly in quantity;the rate of increment and the dynamic degree of the type of eco-tourism land were the biggest, which was far bigger than other types;the growth of land types for tourism decreased progressively in turn from the eco-tourism land, the resort, the theme park, the cultural landscape to the recreational garden . The scale of each land type for tourism in Xiangzhou district grew obviously, the overall dynamic degree in Jingwan district was the biggest. ②The forest land was the important source of the Zhuhai's land growth for tourism.The probability of originating from the farmland to tourism land of each district was small.The origin types of tourism land in various districts was closely related with their natural conditions and economic development. The resort transformed from forest land and construction land primarily. The cultural landscape and the theme park transformed from construction land . The eco-tourism land transformed mainly from forest land. ③ The main type of the increasing tourism land in Zhuhai was eco-park. The space shape evolution of tourism land presented the "十" shape, and mainly concentrated in the eastern mountains and islands of Zhuhai. Because of different resources condition and tourists market's attraction, each type of tourism land evolution shape was different from each other:the space evolution of the resort type was "U"-shape expansion along the west coast;the space evolution of the theme park and entertainment land presented the "L" -shape expansion. Because cultural landscape of Zhuhai lacked attraction, this kind of tourism land increased few and the shape showed scattered punctuate. As the tourist destination of garden recreational are mainly the local tourist, there was no increase in recent 11 years. ④Because the eco-tourism land of the forest park increased most obviously, the type and structure change of the forest land was most prominent. Land-use change trends of tourism land in Zhuhai were as follows:land for tourism area will increase, the growth scale of eco-tourism land will still be the biggest, the growth of tourism land in Xiangzhou district will be the most obvious, the tourism land origin in the future is mainly from Wanshan islands' shrub land and bare land, tourism land will be mainly extended to "two areas and a belt":eastern island of eco-tourism area, western leisure and tourism area, north of greenland and wetland ecotourism belt. The proportion of tourist facilities will continue to increase.