城市工业及基本就业空间的增长,是城市空间增长的动力源。有效模拟和预测城市基本就业空间的增长,对城市整体空间增长和城市系统的调控有着重要的作用。以城市工业及基本就业空间增长的决策主体——工业企业商和政府决策者,作为多智能体,通过多智能体之间的交流、竞争和协作,多智能体和环境间的交互作用,决定已存在工业区位的迁移和新工业空间区位的选择,形成城市工业及基本就业空间增长的动态微观模型。以珠江三角洲东部城市快速发展的樟木头镇为例,采用提出的方法模拟了该地区1988~2004年的工业及基本就业空间增长,获得了良好的模拟结果。
Industrial development and employment growth are the important driving forces for urban growth. This paper simulates urban industrial spatial evolution by integrating Multi-agent systems (MAS), cellular automata (CA) and GIS. In this study, an agent-based system is developed based on CA to simulate complex urban systems by incorporating human factors and physical factors. Human factors are incorporated into the model by agents' decision actions, which embody uncertainties and complex behaviors in the simulation process. Government organizers and industrial investors are considered to be agents, which decide industrial spatial evolution in this model. Government agents and industrial investor agents are used to make decisions for determining the choice of new industrial locations and existing industrial allocation by considering a series of complex physical and economic factors. Urban industrial spatial development is shaped by interactions, competition, collaboration among different agents and between these agents and the environment.The agent-based modeling technique was applied to the simulation of the spatial evolution of industry in the Zhangmutou town of the Pearl River Delta in 1988-2004. The comparison analysis indicates that the proposed model has much better performance than pure CA models in simulating complex urban development in micro-levels. It is because the human and social factors can be well incorporated in the simulation process.
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