基于江苏省环太湖地区1990、2000年TM影像和2005年中巴卫星遥感影像,综合集成区域DEM、交通图和居民点分布图等,充分利用CLUE-S模型空间模拟特长和Markov模型数量预测优势,应用 CLUE-S和Markov复合模型及GIS分析技术分别对现有土地转移速率发展和根据规划约束对转移概率进行调整的严格保护耕地的土地利用变化情景进行时空模拟,揭示不同情景下的土地利用格局变化。通过模拟得知,江苏省环太湖地区今后确需控制建设用地总量,提高节约集约用地水平,最严格地保护水田等优质耕地。
Based on the remote sensing image in the years 1990, 2000 and 2005, combined with regional DEM, traffic map, residential area maps and so on, this paper simulated the land use change scenarios through the application of CLUE-S, Markov composite model and GIS, explored the trend of land use change in different scenarios. The results show that CLUE-S and Markov composite model can simulate spatial and temporal land use changes in Taihu Lake rim. In simulation of the future land use scenarios, "scenarioⅠ" assumes that simulation of the land use change scenarios will obey the current land transfer rate. The result shows construction land will increase sharply and paddy fields reduce immensely in 2015. However, the "scenarioⅡ" supposes that land use change scenarios will follow the policy of strictly protecting cultivated land based on the constraints of land use planning, the rate which paddy field and dry land convert construction land will be slow down 50% and 20% from 2005. The reducing rate of paddy fields will less reduce 21.16%, and increasing the rate of construction land will less increased 20.82% in 2015 than the current land transfer rate’s scenario. For future regional land use regulation and management and in order to ensure food security and scientific land use, and promote rational economic growth around the Taihu Lake Region, it is important to strengthen the protection of cultivated land and control the construction land area.
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