分析了相邻年比较法在旅游危机评价中的不足,提出了基于本底趋势线的旅游危机后影响评价方法。以陕西秦始皇兵马俑1980~2005年统计数据,建立了入境旅游、国内旅游、客流总量和旅游收入4条本底趋势线,对1989年北京6.4风波、1998年亚洲金融危机、2003年SARS瘟疫三个突发事件旅游危机在本景区的响应进行后评价研究,揭示了秦兵马俑景区在三次危机中所造成的客流量损失、旅游收入损失及冲击时间表,为突发事件旅游危机的后评价研究提供了新的理论与方法。
After analyzing the flaws of neighboring year comparison method in the evaluation of tourism crisis, the post-impact evaluation method of tourism crisis from emergent event was put forward based on the theory of tourism background trend line. Using the statistics data of Qin's Terra-cotta Museum from 1980 to 2005, taking the tourism crisis response to three breakout events in Qin's Terracotta Warriors and Horses Museum as an example, the four tourism background trend lines of inbound tourist, domestic tourist, total tourist arrivals and tourism income was found. And the post impact evaluation of three emergent events to Qin's Terra-cotta Museum's tourism development wasanalyzed, which are the Jun. 4 Event in Beijing in 1989, Asian Finance Crisis in 1998, and SARS pestilence in 2003, then the tourist loss, tourism income loss and impact time-table were explored.
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