采用复杂性测度方法来进行中国洪涝灾害受灾面积变化的研究。结果表明:(1) 20世纪80、90年代中国洪灾受灾面积及其复杂度均持续上升,说明洪灾剧烈,而且复杂多变、不确定性增加;进入21世纪,两者趋缓或下降,即中国洪涝灾害有所缓解;(2) 从分省区的结果来看,洪灾受灾面积的未来趋势具有区域特征,主要可划分为两个加剧的区域和两个减缓的区域;全国各省市区依据受灾面积趋势可划分为4个等级,在此基础上给出中国的未来洪灾受灾面积趋势图。
China is a country with large flood-prone area, thus the research on flood is of great significance. The theory of complexity has provided completely new method for the research on the complex system of flood disaster. To detect the tendency in the future, we apply the method of information entropy to analyze the flood-affected area variation by using the flood disaster data of the whole country and 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The results are as follows. The average flood-affected area and its complexity increased very fast in the 1980s and 1990s of the 20th century, so that flood disaster was more changeable and its uncertainty increased. However, entering the 21st century, both of them relieved or decreased slightly. As for the provinces, the paper discovers the regional character of future’s trend of flood-affected area. The whole country may be classified into two flood intensified regions and two flood alleviated regions. The paper classifies the provinces of the whole country into four ranks according to the flood area tendency, and a map of future’s tendency of flood disaster area is given at the end.
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