利用库车、沙雅、新和气象站1961~2000年日照、气温、降水和蒸发观测资料,分析渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲近40年来日照、气温、降水和蒸发量年际变化、季节变化及特征。结果显示: 近40年来年均日照总体呈减少趋势,减少倾向率为31.64 h/10a,减少幅度从大到小依次为冬、夏、秋和春季;近40年来年均气温总体呈增加趋势,增长倾向率约0.17℃/10a,年内冬、秋两季呈上升趋势,春、夏两季呈下降趋势;近40年来年降水量总体呈增长趋势,增长倾向率约10.16 mm/10a,年内除秋季外,夏、春、冬季降水均呈增长趋势;近40年来年蒸发量总体呈减少趋势,减少倾向率约149 mm/10a,年内蒸发量减少幅度从大到小依次为夏、春、秋和冬季。
Using the statistics of sunshine time, temperature, precipitation and evaporation from 1961 to 2000 in Kuqa, Shaya and Xinhe meteorological stations, this paper analyze the annual and seasonal changes of these metrological factors in Kuqa River-Weigan River Delta Oasis during the last 40 years by employing the methods of regression analysis, trendline analysis and 5-year moving average analysis. The result shows that, (1) During the last 40 years, the sunshine time on this oasis has a trend of decreasing, and the deceasing rate was 31.64 h/10 yr. Its undulation scale was smaller during the 1960s and 1970s and larger in the 1980s and the 1990s of the 20th century. The sunshine time has a close correlation with the number of cloudy and rainy days. The sunshine time decreasing scale was varying from season to season. Winter has the largest decreasing rate, following by summer, autumn and spring. (2) During the last 40 years, the temperature on this oasis has a trend of increasing, and the increasing rate was 0.17 ℃/10 yr. Its alteration tendency was in keeping with that of the northwestern China. The change of temperature in a year shows seasonal disparities i.e. increasing in winter and autumn, and decreasing in summer and spring. (3) During the last 40 years, the precipitation on this oasis had a trend of increasing, and the increasing rate was 0.16 mm/10 yr. Its alteration tendency was in keeping with the climatic change of the northwestern China. Except for autumn precipitation change had a tendency of increasing in other seasons. The highest increasing rate took place in summer, following by spring and winter. (4) During the last 40 years, the evaporation on this oasis had a trend of decreasing, and the decreasing rate was 149mm/10yr. Its undulation scale has a negative correlation with the change of average temperature. The evaporation decreasing rate was varying from season to season. Summer had the largest decreasing rate, following by spring, autumn and winter.
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