近45a来,随着流域降水量减少,以及修建水利工程、引水、实施水土保持等人类活动的增加,潮河流域年径流量呈明显减少趋势。利用降水-径流经验统计模型,定量评估了潮河流域降水变化与人类活动对流域年径流量的影响程度。结果表明:1981~1990、1991~2000、2001~2005、1981~2005年,受人类活动影响所产生的年均减水量分别为1.32、0.67、1.46、1.09×108m3,占相应时段总减水量的95.1%,98.9%,60.7%和83.2%;受降水变化影响所产生的年均减水量分别为0.07、0.01、0.95、0.22×108m3,占相应时段总减水量的4.9%,1.1%,39.3%和16.8%。人类活动因素的贡献率远大于降水因素。
In recent 45 years, the annual runoff of the Chao River Basin has declined significantly with decreasing precipitation and increasing human activities such as hydro projects construction, water diversion and implementation of soil and water conservation. Impacts of precipitation variations and human activities on annual runoff of the Chao River Basin are evaluated quantitatively based on the rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model. The results show: During 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2005 and 1981-2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts influenced by human activities are 1.32?108m3, 0.67?108m3, 1.46?108m3 and 1.09?108m3 respectively, taking up 95.1%, 98.9%, 60.7% and 83.2% of the total runoff reduction amounts of corresponding period; the average annual runoff reduction amounts influenced by precipitation variations are 0.07?108m3, 0.01?108m3, 0.95?108m3 and 0.22?108m3 respectively, taking up 4.9%, 1.1%, 39.3% and 16.8% of the total runoff reduction amounts of corresponding period accordingly. The contribution rates of human activities to runoff reduction are much higher than that of precipitation variations.
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