基于分形的城市体系经济规模等级演变研究
作者简介:周彬学(1981-),男,陕西韩城人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市与区域发展。E-mail:zhouzhouworld@163.com
收稿日期: 2011-05-16
要求修回日期: 2011-08-19
网络出版日期: 2012-02-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(41001071)、国家科技支撑计划(2011BAJ07B01-2)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2009SD-5)资助
The Evolution of The Level of Economic Scale of Urban System Based on Fractal Analysis
Received date: 2011-05-16
Request revised date: 2011-08-19
Online published: 2012-02-20
Copyright
利用区域城市体系经济规模等级分形理论,选取长江三角洲1995~2009期间4个年份的县级以上行政单位经济发展数据,计算了经济规模等级分形维数。以该地区城市体系经济规模等级分形维数的演变特征为载体,探讨了长江三角洲地区城市体系经济规模等级演变规律。结果表明: ① 虽然当前长三角地区各城市的经济社会发展水平差异较大,中心城市垄断性仍然较强,但其均匀化趋势明显。② 经济规模等级的空间梯度特征明显,经济规模等级的均匀性随着距离区域核心城市距离的扩大而降低。③ 产业空间布局层次化逐步分明,中心城市的第三产业比重不断提升,区域控制能力不断增强,与以第二产业为主导的中小城市形成有机整体,区域经济竞争力整体得到提升。
周彬学 , 戴特奇 , 梁进社 , 张锦宗 . 基于分形的城市体系经济规模等级演变研究[J]. 地理科学, 2012 , 32(2) : 156 -162 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.02.156
According to the fractal theory of economic scale in regional urban system, we select four-year economic data of the administrative units that above the county level in the Changjiang River Delta between 1995 and 2009, and calculate the fractal dimensions of the economic scales. Under the evolving characteristics of the fractal dimensions of the Changjiang River Delta, we explore the evolving law of economic scale levels in the urban system of the Changjiang River Delta. The results show: 1) Although the differences of levels of economic and social development between cities in the Changjiang River Delta are quite big currently and the central city has more monopoly, the trend of homogenization is obvious. Overall, the fractal dimensions of the economic gross data and economic density data have shown a rising trend among all the economic sectors. Furthermore, the evolution pattern of fractal dimensions for both data demonstrated a strong consistency. The trends of variations can be summarized into three types: decreased at first and then increased, fluctuating increased and sustainable increased. The type of decreasing at first and then increasing is evidently demonstrated in the evolution of the fractal dimensions of the economic gross data, while the fluctuating increasing type is evidently demonstrated in the evolution of the fractal dimensions of economic density data. The sustainable increasing type is evidently demonstrated in the evolution of the fractal dimensions of the foreign trade data. Under the cooperation of the various economic departments, the trend of homogenization for spatial pattern of the regional GDP is obviously revealed. 2) The levels of economic scale have a significant gradient feature in space, and the uniformity of the level of economic scale is reducing with increasing distance from the core cities of the region. The cities in the core region, which have higher level of economic scale, constitute the first non-scaling interval. The fractal dimensions of the first non-scaling interval are higher than the corresponding dimensions of all the cities in the same region. This result indicates that, along with the enhancement of the economic develop zone, the pattern of regional control evolves gradually from core cities leading to economic development zone leading. 3) The hierarchy of spatial layout of the regional industrials is gradually clear. The proportions of the foreign trade and the tertiary industry of central cities are improving constantly, and the ability of the regional control of central cities are improving, while the secondary industry has been put in leading position in medium and small cities. The central, medium and small cities all contribute to the formation of an organic whole, which result in improving of overall competitiveness of regional economy.
Key words: fractal; urban system; economic scale; the Changjiang River Delta; evolution
Table 1 The evolution of fractal dimension of the total amount of the economic and social indicators in Changjiang River Delta表1 长三角经济社会指标总量分形维数演变 |
年份 | 1995年 | 2000年 | 2005年 | 2009年 |
---|---|---|---|---|
总人口 | 2.2366 | 2.0982 | 1.9088 | 1.8685 |
GDP | 1.1052 | 1.0777 | 0.9655 | 1.1040 |
第一产业 | 2.3207 | 2.2614 | 2.1584 | 2.4079 |
第二产业 | 1.0183 | 1.0054 | 0.9238 | 1.0399 |
第三产业 | 0.9131 | 0.9348 | 0.8893 | 0.9557 |
消费品零售总额 | 1.0403 | - | 0.9773 | 1.0424 |
财政收入 | 0.9129 | 0.8272 | 0.7577 | 0.8902 |
财政支出 | 1.1018 | 1.0166 | 0.9795 | 1.1370 |
社会固定资产投资 | 0.9478 | 0.8265 | 0.8812 | 1.0681 |
实际利用外资 | 0.4891 | 0.5659 | 0.6954 | 0.7482 |
进口总额 | - | - | 0.4113 | 0.4009 |
出口总额 | - | - | 0.4955 | 0.6194 |
注:数据来源:《上海市统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《江苏省统计年鉴》。 |
Table 2 The evolution of fractal dimension of the regional average economic and social indicators in Changjiang River Delta表2 长三角地均经济社会指标分形维数演变 |
年份 | 1995年 | 2000年 | 2005年 | 2009年 |
---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 0.8351 | 0.8925 | 0.8218 | 0.9444 |
第一产业 | 1.5972 | 2.6525 | 2.4734 | 3.0609 |
第二产业 | 0.6769 | 0.6454 | 0.5996 | 0.8046 |
第三产业 | 0.7143 | 0.7899 | 0.7023 | 0.8727 |
消费品零售总额 | 0.6714 | - | 0.7753 | 0.9163 |
财政收入 | 0.7595 | 0.7060 | 0.5745 | 0.8503 |
财政支出 | 0.9609 | 1.0240 | 0.8691 | 1.0778 |
社会固定资产投资 | 0.5632 | 0.7628 | 0.6474 | 1.0205 |
实际利用外资 | 0.3900 | 0.4679 | 0.4030 | 0.5139 |
进口总额 | - | - | 0.3239 | 0.3638 |
出口总额 | - | - | 0.3189 | 0.4358 |
注:数据来源:《上海市统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《江苏省统计年鉴》。 |
Fig.1 The Zipf dimension of GDP in Changjiang River Delta from the first fractal scaleless band in 2009图1 长三角GDP(2009)第一无标度区Zipf维数(q) |
Table 3 The evolution of fractal dimension of the total amount of the economic and social indicators in Changjiang River Delta (the first fractal scaleless band)表3 长三角经济社会指标总量分形维数演变(第一无标度区) |
年份 | 1995年 | 2000年 | 2005年 | 2009年 | 无标度区长度 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 1.2102 | 1.1988 | 1.0918 | 1.1216 | 94/134 |
第一产业 | 2.5920 | 2.4814 | 2.4950 | 2.6603 | 71/134 |
第二产业 | 1.1197 | 1.1232 | 1.0483 | 1.1353 | 90/134 |
第三产业 | 1.0108 | 1.0367 | 0.9995 | 1.0326 | 100/134 |
消费品零售总额 | 1.1174 | —— | 1.0770 | 1.0707 | 102/134 |
财政收入 | 0.9543 | 0.8918 | 0.8254 | 0.9029 | 110/134 |
财政支出 | 1.1269 | 1.0367 | 1.0005 | 1.0826 | 120/134 |
社会固定资产投资 | 0.9287 | 0.9031 | 0.9543 | 1.0993 | 110/134 |
实际利用外资 | 0.6316 | 0.6610 | 0.8781 | 0.9013 | 65/134 |
进口总额 | —— | —— | 0.5429 | 0.5348 | 80/134 |
出口总额 | —— | —— | 0.6775 | 0.7837 | 60/134 |
注: 数据来源:《上海市统计年鉴》,《浙江省统计年鉴》,《江苏省统计年鉴》。 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
[1] |
|
[2] |
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
/
〈 | 〉 |