1959~2009年宁夏极端温度阈值变化及其与AO指数相关分析
作者简介:薛红喜(1978-),男,山西河津人,博士,高工,主要研究方向为大气探测、农业气象。E-mail: xue-hongxi@163.com
收稿日期: 2011-07-19
要求修回日期: 2011-10-11
网络出版日期: 2012-03-25
基金资助
干旱气象科学研究基金项目(编号:IAM200919)资助
Extreme Temperature Threshold Changes and Its Association With AO Index in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China in 1959-2009
Received date: 2011-07-19
Request revised date: 2011-10-11
Online published: 2012-03-25
Copyright
以1959~2009年宁夏10个测站的逐日最高和最低气温资料,运用百分位法定义不同测站的逐年极端高、低温阈值,研究了宁夏近51 a来极端温度的变化特征;通过Mann-Kendall检验得出宁夏各气象站点温度发生突变的年份;并运用Pearson相关系数分析探讨极端温度阈值与AO的相关关系。结果表明: ① 宁夏极端高温、低温阈值均呈极显著上升趋势,但极端低温阈值上升趋势更显著; ② 极端高温阈值北高南低,极端低温阈值南高北低; ③ 宁夏极端低温阈值发生突变的时间集中在20世纪80年代左右,极端高温阈值的突变时间相对较晚;④ 极端高温阈值与夏季AO指数相关性不显著,极端低温阈值与冬季AO指数呈显著正相关性,北极涛动对宁夏冬季低温的影响较大。
薛红喜 , 孟丹 , 吴东丽 , 王连喜 , 李琪 . 1959~2009年宁夏极端温度阈值变化及其与AO指数相关分析[J]. 地理科学, 2012 , 32(3) : 380 -385 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.03.380
Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 1959~2009 at ten meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and using percentile method defined extreme high and low temperature threshold of different stations year by year, this paper studied nearly 51 years extreme temperature variation features in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, obtained temperature mutated years in the meteorological stations by Mann-Kendall test, and then applied Pearson correlation coefficient to analyze the correlation between the extreme temperature threshold and the AO index. The result showed that: (1) Both extreme high temperature threshold and extreme low temperature threshold in Ningxia showed very significant upward trend. The increase amplitudes were 0.199℃/10a and 0.62℃/10a for the extreme high and low temperature threshold respectively and the upward trend of extreme low temperature threshold was more significant, so the upward of extreme low temperature was the main character and trend of the temperature change in the nearly 51 years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. (2) Extreme high temperature threshold was high in north and low in south while extreme low temperature threshold was low in north and high in south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The difference value between the extreme high temperature and the extreme low temperature showed that the temperature changing range of temperature was high in north and low in south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. (3) The mutation time of extreme low temperature threshold in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region concentrated in the 1980s or so, and the mutation time of extreme high temperature threshold relatively late. The mutation time of the extreme temperature showed that the global climate change had the more influence on the low temperature. The mutation time of Guyuan was large far later than other regions, and the result meant that the mountains around Guyuan would block the cold and warm atmosphere and reduce the global climate change influence on the extreme temperature. (4) From 1959 to 2009, the annual average values, the summer average values and the winter average values of the AO index had rising trend, and the maximum increase amplitudes of the AO index appeared in the winter. The correlation of extreme high temperature threshold and the summer AO index was not significant in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and there had significant positive correlation between the extreme low temperature threshold of the north, centre and the whole area of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and the winter AO index. The Arctic Oscillation had little influence on the extreme high temperature while had great impact on winter low temperature in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The high mountains reduced the influence of the Arctic Oscillation on the south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region by the block of cold atmosphere, so there had no significant correlation between the extreme low temperature of south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and the AO index.
Fig.1 Distribution of Meteorological Observation Stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region图1 宁夏10个站点分布 |
Fig.2 Interannual variability of extreme high temperature threshold in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region图2 宁夏极端高温阈值年际变化 |
Table 1 Extreme temperature threshold of stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in 1959-2008(℃)表1 1959~2009宁夏各站点极端温度阈值(℃) |
站名 | 北部 | 中部 | 南部 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
惠农 | 银川 | 陶乐 | 中卫 | 中宁 | 盐池 | 同心 | 海原 | 固原 | 西吉 | |
极端高温阈值 | 32.21 | 31.58 | 32.47 | 31.34 | 32.18 | 31.54 | 32.43 | 28.18 | 27.57 | 26.73 |
极端低温阈值 | -16.38 | -15.19 | -17.18 | -15.54 | -13.98 | -16.98 | -15.08 | -12.89 | -15.46 | -16.95 |
差值 | 48.59 | 46.77 | 49.65 | 46.88 | 46.16 | 48.52 | 47.51 | 41.07 | 43.03 | 43.68 |
Fig.3图3 宁夏不同地区的极端高温阈值变化 |
Fig.4 Interannual variability of extreme low temperature threshold in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region图4 宁夏极端低温阈值年际变化 |
Fig.5 Extreme low temperature threshold variation of three regions in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region图5 宁夏不同地区的极端低温阈值变化 |
Fig.6 Interannual variability of AO index图6 AO指数年际变化 |
Table 2 Mutation time of extreme temperature threshold in each station’s表2 各台站极端温度发生突变的时间 |
站点 | 极端高温阈值 突变年份(年) | 极端低温阈值 突变年份(年) | 突变年份相差的 时间(a) |
---|---|---|---|
惠农 | 1997 | 1980 | 17 |
银川 | 2001 | 1981 | 20 |
陶乐 | 1994 | 1982 | 12 |
中卫 | 2004 | 1986 | 18 |
中宁 | 1997 | 1986 | 11 |
盐池 | 1990 | 1976 | 14 |
同心 | 2000 | 1979 | 21 |
海原 | 2004 | 1985 | 19 |
固原 | 2000 | 1997 | 13 |
西吉 | 2004 | 1985 | 9 |
Table 3 Correlation analysis between extreme temperature threshold and the same term AO index表3 极端温度阈值与同期AO指数相关分析 |
北部极端 高温阈值 | 中部极端 高温阈值 | 南部极端 高温阈值 | 宁夏极端 高温阈值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
夏季AO指数 Pearson相关性 显著性(双侧) | -0.113 | -0.034 | -0.106 | -0.085 |
0.428 | 0.813 | 0.461 | 0.551 | |
冬季AO指数 Pearson相关性 | 0.305* | 0.276* | 0.209 | 0.283* |
显著性(双侧) | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.142 | 0.044 |
*表示在0.05水平(双侧)上显著相关。 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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