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地理科学 >

2011 , Vol. 31 >Issue 11: 1376 - 1382

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1376

论文

基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力——以贵州省毕节地区为例

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  • 1. 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 四川 成都 610041;
    2. 西昌学院农业 科学院, 四川 西昌 615013;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039

收稿日期: 2010-12-16

  修回日期: 2011-02-24

  网络出版日期: 1997-11-20

基金资助

中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"西南山区情势与资源环境安全战略研究(KZCX2-YW-333)"资助。

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Application of System Dynamics in Analyzing the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Karst Region of Southwest China —A Case Study in Bijie Region, Guizhou Province

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  • 1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China;
    2. School of Agricultural Sciences of Xichang College, Xichang, Sichuan 615013, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2010-12-16

  Revised date: 2011-02-24

  Online published: 1997-11-20

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摘要

对中国西南岩溶区水资源-生态环境-社会经济反馈关系进行分析,选取贵州省毕节地区做为研究对象,建立毕节地区水资源承载力系统动力学模型;通过动态模拟和综合调试,生成5种有效方案:传统发展型方案(方案1)、节水发展型方案(方案2)、开源与环保发展型方案(方案3)、GDP快速增长型方案(方案4)和协调发展型方案(方案5)。综合分析得出方案5是调控优化方案。对方案5对应的SD模型发展趋势做分析,为毕节地区及西南岩溶区水资源可持续利用提供决策依据。

本文引用格式

何仁伟, 刘邵权, 刘运伟 . 基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力——以贵州省毕节地区为例[J]. 地理科学, 2011 , 31(11) : 1376 -1382 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1376

Abstract

Based on analysis of the basic feedback structure of water resources-ecological environment-social economy system in Karst Region of Southwest China, taking Bijie region, Guizhou Province as the research area, this paper set up a System Dynamic(SD) model of Bijie region through dynamic simulation and synthetical adjustment. Five available schemes were chosen from various experimental schemes. They are traditional development scheme(Scheme 1), water-saving development scheme (Scheme 2), broaden sources of water resources and environmental protection scheme (Scheme 3),fast economic development-oriented scheme (Scheme 4) and coordinated development-oriented scheme (Scheme 5). Comprehensive evaluation indicates that Scheme 5 is the optimal one, which takes social economic development, ecological environment protection, water-saving and water resources development into account, and brings obvious social economic ecological and water-saving benefits. Therefore, this paper analyzed the corresponding SD model of Scheme 5 and the development trend of Bijie region in the next 12 years, and came to the conclusions that the application of Scheme 5 can effectively promote the coordinated development of water resources, ecological environment and social economy in Bijie region, and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in this area.

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