以京津冀都市圈为例,运用马尔科夫转移矩阵、景观格局指数和Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型等,对各地类转移情况、景观格局特征、影响因子和未来变化趋势进行分析和多情景模拟。结果表明:①景观水平上,总体景观破碎化程度加大。类型水平上,耕地、草地和林地是主导优势地类。②1985~2000年之间,耕地主要流向城乡居民点及工矿用地、水域和林地;城乡居民点及工矿用地的增加主要来自于耕地、草地、林地。③各个地类的分布均与原有地类的距离密切相关。④对土地利用变化设置三个模拟情景,按情景1,1985~2030年耕地、林地、草地、未利用地均不同程度减少;城乡居民点及工矿用地、水域明显增加,表明这期间城市化进程明显加快,建设用地不断占用周围的耕地。

Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region as an example, firstly, the best analysis grid size which is 100m is determined. Secondly, using the methods such as Markov transition matrix and landscape pattern indices and so on, land use change, land type transformation, landscape patterns characteristics and land use impact factors are analyzed in the study area. Then, Logistic-CA-Markov coupled model is applied to the quantitative prediction and spatial simulation on the trend of land use change under three different scenarios. The results showed that, ① On the landscape level, the overall degree of landscape fragmentation in the study area is increasing, which is exacerbated by human activities. On the patch type level, urban areas are continuous expanding, and farmland, grassland and woodland are dominant types in the study area, and the degree of fragmentation of cultivated land and water are significantly increased. ② During 1985 to 2000, the cultivated land is the main source of land transfer, which is mainly converted to the residents and urban land, mining land, water and forest. In addition, residents and urban land and mining land mainly come from the cultivated land, grassland and woodland. ③ The distribution of each land type is related to many factors, moreover, the common one is the distance to the original land use type. ④ According to the scenario 1 of land use changes simulating, the cultivated land, woodland, grassland and unused land reduce in varying degrees from 1985 to 2030; on the contrary, urban and residential land and mining land and water increase significantly, which indicate that significantly speeding up of the urbanization process. The construction land is constantly expanding around the original one, and taking up a lot of farmland and other non-agricultural construction.