基于地市入境旅游人数和相关经济统计数据,运用基尼系数和主成份回归等分析方法,探讨了1999~2008年中国入境旅游规模空间分布和内部结构变化的规律及相关因素。结果表明,全国、三大地带和大部分省份的空间分布都属集聚型,但其集中性基本呈现下降趋势,且这种变化趋势体现在内部结构的变化上也有明显地一致性。进一步分析表明,总体上,不同规模等级和空间层次的空间分布不平衡程度越低,趋向分散的态势就越明显。这种空间分布变化与旅游发展条件的不断改善存在正的相关性。在各地区旅游业得到全面发展、旅游需求发生结构性变化的转型时期,经济发展、产业结构优化、对外经济开放度、市场发展和基础设施条件等因素对缩小地区入境旅游规模空间差异的作用日益凸现,旅游发展机制向多元化因素驱动转变。

Based on the prefecture-level data of inbound tourism population and relative economic statistics, this paper investigates the evolution and its factors of the spatial distribution disparity and its interior structure of inbound tourism size in China using Gini coefficient and principal component regression model in 1999-2008. The conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) On the whole, the spatial disparity remains large but becomes smaller and smaller in China and the Three Zones in the past 10 years, and the evolutions of interior structure for the different sizes are consistent with its whole trend. On the other hand, as the sizes increase, the imbalance of spatial distribution is smaller, while the dispersive trend is more significant. 2) The change between the imbalance of spatial distribution and the dispersive trend remains samilar in different spatial levels. As a whole, the spatial disparity is largest in the Western Zone, and is smallest in the Middle Zone. While the dispersive trend is most significant in the Middle Zone, and is most inapparent in the West Zone. On the same time, the analysis on the provincial disparity and its evolution testify the above conclusions. Then the distribution type is presented based on the provincial disparity and its evolution. But the situation becomes slightly complicated. The spatial disparity is largest in the Eastern Zone when the size is above 10 000 person-time, and the dispersive trend is most significant in the Western Zone when the size is 200 000 person-time. 3) The positive relation is existed between the spatial distribution change of inbound tourist size and tourism development condition improvement. In the transition period of the holistic development of local tourism industry and the structural change of tourist demand, the influences of the factors, such as economic development, industry structure optimizing, the degree of economic open, market development and infrastructure construction and so on, are more and more significant for reducing the spatial disparity of local inbound tourism size, indicating that the mechanism of tourism development has been drived by multi-factors.