以达曲为例,利用朱倭站1961~1996年的水文资料及东谷站的降水量资料,分析南水北调西线一期工程调水区径流量与影响因子的关系,结果表明:年平均气温呈上升趋势,其线性变率为0.24℃/10 a,36年共上升了0.864℃,以20世纪80年代以后上升趋势更为显著;年蒸发量呈增加趋势,其线性变率为+2.78 mm/10 a;年平均降水量及春、冬及非汛期降水逐年增加,其中年平均降水气候倾向率达+5.2 mm/10 a;调水区达曲的年平均径流及春、秋、汛期、非汛期流量呈逐年增加趋势,其中以春季和非汛期尤为明显。虽然气温升高、蒸发量增大,但这不是影响径流的直接因素,其增量还不足以抵消降水对径流的增加,降水是影响调水区径流量多少的主要气候因子。
Based on the runoff in 1961-1996 at Zhuwo Hydro-station and the precipitation data at Donggu Hydro-station, the relationship between runoff amount and its impacting factors in the Water-exporting Rivers of the First Stage Project of the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme via the Western Route is analyzed. The result shows that the annual mean air temperature was increasing, with a linear variation rate of 0.24℃/10a, and it has increased 0.864℃ since the 1960s; the annual evaporation was increasing, with a linear variation rate of +2.78mm/10a; the annual mean precipitation and precipitation in spring, winter and non-flood season have been increased since the 1960s, with a linear variation rate of annual precipitation of +5.2mm/10a; the annual runoff amount and runoff amount in spring, autumn, flood season and non-flood season were increasing, and the runoff amount in spring and non-flood season were more significant. The increasing temperature and evaporation were not the main factors to impact the runoff amount, while the annual precipitation was one of the main factors for impacting the runoff amount at the Water-exporting Rivers of the First Stage Project of the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme via the Western Route.
[1] 李国英.对南水北调西线工程的认识和评价[J].人民黄河,2001,23(10):1～4.
[2] 崔荃.南水北调西线第一期工程规划[J].人民黄河,2001,23(10):23～25.
[3] 韩振强,张玫.南水北调西线工程可调水量分析[J].人民黄河,1998,20(10):20～23.
[4] 张玫,王军良,韩侠,等.南水北调西线工程可调水量分析[J].人民黄河,2001,23(10):11～13.
[5] 张玫,张玮.南水北调西线工程可调水量分析中几个主要问题的探讨[J].水文,2002,22(4):32～36,18.
[6] 吴险峰,刘昌明,杨志峰,等.黄河上游南水北调西线工程可调水量及风险分析[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(1):9～15.
[7] 李道峰,宁大同,刘昌明,等.黄河上游西线调水工程对调出区气候影响的初步分析[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(1):16～21.
[8] 高治定,张志红,王玉峰,等.南水北调西线工程引水坝址天然径流量研究[J].人民黄河,2001,23(10):9～10.
[9] 李道峰,田英,刘昌明.GIS支持下的黄河河源区降水径流要素变化分析[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(1):144～155.
[10] 汤奇成,曲耀光,周聿超.中国干旱区水文及水资源利用[M].北京:科学出版社,1992.53～73.
[11] 管华,李斌.秦岭-黄淮平原交界带地表径流与其时间变化的关系分析[J].地理科学,2004,24(3):281～285.
[12] 李丽娟,李海滨,王娟.澜沧江水文与水环境特征及其时空分异[J].地理科学,2002,22(1):49～56.
[13] 李林,汪青春,张国胜,等.黄河上游气候变化对地表水的影响[J].地理学报,2004,59(5):716～722.
[14] 高桥浩一郎.月平均气温月降水量以及蒸发散量的推定方式[J].天气(日本),1979,26(12):759～763.
[15] 宋正山,杨辉,张庆云.华北地区水资源各分量的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):552～565.
[16] 李林,王振宇,秦宁生,等.环青海湖地区气候变化及其对荒漠化的影响[J].高原气象,2002,21(1):59～65.
[17] 邓慧平,李秀彬,张明,等.气候与地表覆被变化对梭磨河流域水文影响分析[J].地理科学,2001,21(6):493～497.
[18] 查小春,延军平.全球变化下秦岭南北河流径流泥沙比较分析[J].地理科学,2002,22(4):403～407.
[19] 刘晓东,安芷生,方建刚,等.全球气候变暖条件下黄河流域降水的可能变化[J].地理科学,2002,22(5):513～519.
[20] 姜逢清,朱诚,胡汝骥.1960～1997年新疆北部降水序列的趋势探测[J].地理科学,2002,22(5):669～672.
[21] 黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.24～25.
