在分析经济全球化背景下虚拟经济产生与发展的基础上,选取货币地位、证券化率、外贸依存度、制造业比重、跨国间接投资等指标,采用系统聚类方法,对美国、英国、日本、德国、加拿大、法国、俄罗斯、中国、印度等9个国家进行聚类分析,得到世界经济格局大致可以分为三个层次的结果。其中美国、英国其货币地位、证券化率和跨国间接投资比重较高,属于虚拟化国家;加拿大和德国、法国各项指标基本处于中间水平,属于半虚拟化国家,日本虚拟化水平低于虚拟化国家而高于半国家,可以将其合并到半虚拟化国家;俄罗斯和中国、印度及其他发展中国家的外贸依存度、制造业比重较高,属于未虚拟化国家。根据对中国——最大的未虚拟化国家研究,提出了保持实体经济优势地位,利用虚拟化国家资金和技术,发展与半虚拟化国家的贸易,加快经济发展方式大转变和产业结构调整的建议。
This paper selects the indexes of currency position, securitisation rate, ratio of dependence on foreign trade, manufacturing ratio, foreign portfolio investment and others to do cluster analysis on the economic patterns of 9 countries by the clustering methods of system. The results were attained that the countries can be divided into three sorts of economies: USA and Britain belong to fictious economies because of their high currency position, securitisation rate and foreign portfolio investment; Canada, Germany and France belong to semi-fictious economies because their indexes are in the middle level, and Japan belongs to semi-fictitious economies because of its lower fictitious level but higher than semi-fictious economies; Russia, China, India and other developing countries belong to non-fictious economies because of their high ratio of dependence on foreign trade and manufacturing ratio. China has been the largest non-fictious economy. The paper provides the following suggestions: to maintain superior position of the real economy, to exploit funds and technology of fictious economies, to develop trade with semi-fictious economies, and to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode and the revision of industrial structure.
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