在分析和总结能源足迹传统方法及其研究进展的基础上,从系统论和物质流分析的角度,通过净初级生产力将能源足迹与生物生产性土地变化相结合,提出了能源足迹改进方法,并据此构建了能源利用效益综合评价框架。以吉林省为例,分析和评价了1999~2008年的能源足迹和能源利用效益。结果显示,吉林省人均能源足迹从0.249 hm2/人增至0.524 hm2/人,且与人均GDP在年均增速上显著相关(R2=0.7574,p<0.05);能源足迹构成中,比例最高的煤炭足迹从68.40%增至74.99%,而石油、电力和天然气足迹均有不同程度下降;同期能源足迹强度从0.387 hm2/万元降至0.221 hm2/万元,能源足迹弹性系数从0.059增至0.558,并呈近似周期性波动,能源足迹压强从0.348增至0.759。结果表明,过去10a来吉林省能源利用效益有所提高,但生态环境压力也在增大。今后较长一段时期内,吉林省能源足迹增长将逐渐放缓甚至下降,能源利用效益会有较大幅度提升。
Based on the analysis and summary of traditional energy ecological footprint (EEF) method and its research progress home and abroad, a modified EEF method is proposed by combining EEF with the change of biological productive lands from a standpoint of system theory and material flow analysis, and hereby an assessment framework of energy utilization benefit (EUB) is constructed. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this paper analyzes and evaluates the EEF and EUB respectively. The results show that from 1999 to 2008, EEF per capita has increased from 0.249 hm2 to 0.524 hm2, being a significant correlation with GDP per capita in average annual growth rate (R2=0.7574, p<0.05). Among the components of EEF, the percentage of coal footprint has increased from 68.40% to 74.99%, while the percentages of footprints of oil, electricity and natural gas all decreases at different degree. Meanwhile, the intensity of EEF has decreased from 0.387?10-4 hm2/yuan to 0.221?10-4 hm2/yuan, the elastic coefficient of EEF which has increased from 0.059 to 0.558 shows an periodic fluctuation basically, and the pressure of EEF has increased from 0.348 to 0.759. It is indicated that with the improvement of energy utilization benefit in Jilin in the past 10 years, the pressure of eco-environment has been getting increasingly bigger. However, in the following several years, it is likely that the growth rate of EEF will gradually reach a low and even falling standard, and the energy utilization benefit will largely promote in a relatively long period.
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