中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划
作者简介:殷 洁(1983-),女,内蒙古乌兰察布市人,博士,主要从事自然灾害研究。E-mail:yinjie09@126.com
收稿日期: 2013-02-03
要求修回日期: 2013-05-12
网络出版日期: 2013-08-16
基金资助
国家科技支撑计划(2008BAH31B01、2009BAC61B05)、国家自然科学基金项目(40830741)资助
Integrated Risk Assessment and Zoning of Typhoon Disasters in China
Received date: 2013-02-03
Request revised date: 2013-05-12
Online published: 2013-08-16
Copyright
殷洁 , 戴尔阜 , 吴绍洪 . 中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划[J]. 地理科学, 2013 , 33(11) : 1370 -1376 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.011.1370
Under the background of global climate change, extreme events occur frequently which can cause intensified natural disaster risk. China characterized with high population density and intensive economy in east-central areas, as one of the countries influenced frequently by typhoon events, the agriculture, population, buildings and economy are threatened significantly by typhoon disasters. The quantitative risk assessment on disaster-bearing bodies and regionally integrated zoning are not just a theory study in risk management, also can offer practical guidance on mitigation and prevention in typhoon disaster. In our study, on the basis of the typhoon disaster mechanism, the vulnerabilities of disaster-bearing bodies were evaluated according to typhoon disaster loss criteria established by applying historical typhoon loss data. In addition, the probabilities of typhoons in each country region were analyzed comprehensively using the indices of landing frequencies and track line lengths. Then applying risk assessment model, the typhoon risks caused by the different intensities were evaluated quantitatively. Synthesized on the risks of the same or the different intensity typhoons for disaster-bearing bodies, the typhoon disaster risk zone for China was divided into nine areas and belonged to three classes (respectively is high, medium and low risk). The high risk areas are located in southern part of Guangxi Province, most of Guangdong Province, coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang Province, Yangtz River Delta area, most of Jiangsu Province, some inland counties of Jiangxi and Anhui Province. Based on the above results, the helpful suggestions on prevention and reduction in regional typhoon disaster were put forward.
Key words: typhoon disaster; risk assessment; integration; zoning
Table 1 Risk grade classification of different intensity typhoons表1 不同强度台风灾害风险等级划分 |
距标准差倍数 | 赋值标准 | 相当于风险等级 |
---|---|---|
<-1.5 | 0.10 | 低 |
-1.5~-0.5 | 0.25 | 较低 |
-0.5~0.5 | 0.50 | 中 |
0.5~1.5 | 0.75 | 较高 |
>1.5 | 1.00 | 高 |
Table 2 Hazard- bearing body risks of different intensity typhoon disasters表2 不同强度台风灾害下承灾体可能风险 |
台风灾 害强度 | 承灾体可能风险范围 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
农作物受灾面积 (104hm2) | 农作物绝收面积 (104hm2) | 受灾人口 (万人) | 死亡人口 (人) | 受伤人口 (人) | 紧急安置人口 (万人) | 房屋倒塌 (万间) | 直接经济损失(亿元) | |
微度 | 25~150 | 5~100 | 500~1500 | 100~300 | 500~2000 | 50~100 | 5~50 | 50~100 |
轻度 | 150~300 | 100~120 | 1500~2000 | 300~700 | 2000~5000 | 100~300 | 50~80 | 100~200 |
中度 | 300~500 | 120~150 | 2000~5000 | 700~1500 | 5000~10000 | 300~500 | 80~100 | 200~300 |
重度 | 500~1000 | 150~300 | 5000~10000 | 1500~5000 | 10000~20000 | 500~1500 | 100~400 | 300~400 |
Fig.1 Spatial patterns of different intensity typhoon disasters risks图1 不同强度台风灾害综合风险格局 |
Table 3 Number of counties influenced by different intensity typhoons表3 不同强度等级台风灾害风险影响的县域数目统计(个) |
台风灾害 强度 | 台风灾害风险 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
低风险 | 较低风险 | 中风险 | 较高风险 | 高风险 | |
微度 | 573 | 113 | 79 | 51 | 219 |
轻度 | 584 | 102 | 66 | 46 | 237 |
中度 | 570 | 87 | 66 | 52 | 260 |
重度 | 554 | 82 | 55 | 68 | 276 |
Fig.2 Typhoon disaster comprehensive risk pattern in China图2 中国台风灾害综合风险等级格局 |
Fig.3 Zoning map of typhoon disaster risk in China图3 中国台风灾害风险分区 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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