城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异
作者简介:孙昌龙 (1984-),男,浙江温州人,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域规划研究。E-mail:sunyuncheng@163.com
收稿日期: 2012-02-28
要求修回日期: 2012-05-15
网络出版日期: 2012-07-13
基金资助
中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-01、中国科学院西部之光人才培养计划项目(XBBS200812)、国家自然科学基金项目(40601032)资助
The Impact of Urbanization on the CO2 Emission in the Various Development Stages
Received date: 2012-02-28
Request revised date: 2012-05-15
Online published: 2012-07-13
Copyright
城市化与碳排放是当今世界研究的两大焦点,两者的结合点——城市化对碳排放的影响更是研究的重点。利用全球主要国家(地区)历史数据,根据城市化水平划分不同的组别,考察城市化动态演进阶段与碳排放之间的相关性,并通过STIRPAT模型评估不同城市化阶段各因子对碳排放的影响;结合城市化发展阶段各要素的特征,探讨不同阶段城市化对碳排放的影响。结果表明,城市化对碳排放的影响表现为驱动和制动双重作用:① 当城市化发展处于初期阶段时,城市系统发展缓慢,驱动与制动作用均不明显,碳排放缓慢增长;② 当城市化发展处于中期阶段时,城市系统进入加速发展阶段,驱动作用逐渐占主导,制动作用较小,碳排放迅速增长;③ 当城市化发展处于后期阶段,驱动作用仍然占主导地位,但制动作用逐渐增强,碳排放速度有所减缓,排放总量仍然增加。
孙昌龙 , 靳诺 , 张小雷 , 杜宏茹 . 城市化不同演化阶段对碳排放的影响差异[J]. 地理科学, 2013 , 33(3) : 266 -272 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.03.266
Urbanization and carbon emissions have attracted intensively attention. This article analyzes the impacts of the urbanization on CO2 emissions in three aspects. Then the historical data of 76 countries (regions) (1980-2007) are employed by separating them into different categories according to urbanization levels to study the correlation between the stage of urbanization and the dynamic evolution of the CO2 emissions. The main impact factors on CO2 emissions during different stages of urbanization are evaluated based on the STIRPAT model. Finally, according to analysis results, combined with the characteristics of the various elements in the development stage of urbanization, this study explores the impacts of various stages of urbanization on CO2 emissions. The results showed that: the urbanization affects the CO2 emissions mainly through changing lifestyle, production and land use, which performances a driving and restricting role. In the early stage of urbanization, the driving and restricting effect of the CO2 emissions are not obvious, showing slow development in urban system and the slow growing carbon emissions rate; in the mid-stage, the driving role of urbanization on CO2 emissions becomes to be dominant, but the restricting effect is weaker, which is characterized by the acceleration development of urbanization system, the city development in numbers and scales, the accelerated industrialization process, and a rapid growth of CO2 emissions; in latter stage, the city enters a slow phase of development, urbanization on the driving role of CO2 emissions is still dominant, but the restricting effect is gradually enhancing. In this stage, the quality of urbanization continuously improves, and household consumption reaches a high level. Meanwhile, the phenomenon of suburban urbanization and counter urbanization appear, the tertiary industry takes up most part of industrial structure, technical level increases rapidly, CO2 emissions becomes slow, but the total emissions are still increasing. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions is different in various urbanization stages. In response to CO2 emission reduction mandate in the context of global climate change, countries (regions) should reasonably guide the process of urbanization and enhance the restricting effect of urbanization.
Key words: urbanization; STIRPAT model; CO2 emission
Table 1 List of counties(regions) by group表 1 样本国家(地区)分组清单 |
组别 | 国家(地区)名称 | 数量(个) |
---|---|---|
G1 | 斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、肯尼亚、孟加拉国、印度 | 5 |
G2 | 泰国、刚果(金)、赞比亚、巴基斯坦、莫桑比克、贝宁、多哥、塞内加尔、中国、苏丹、埃及、阿尔巴尼亚、洪都拉斯、科特迪瓦、危地马拉、加纳、印度尼西亚、摩洛哥、喀麦隆、葡萄牙、巴拉圭、南非、希腊、刚果(布)、爱尔兰、芬兰、菲律宾、阿尔及利亚、玻利维亚、突尼斯、日本、奥地利、匈牙利、意大利、伊朗、土耳其、多米尼加、马来西亚、塞浦路斯 | 39 |
G3 | 保加利亚、阿曼、巴拿马、哥伦比亚、文莱、墨西哥、西班牙、法国、挪威、阿拉伯联合酋长国、约旦、加拿大、韩国、荷兰、美国、卢森堡、沙特阿拉伯、瑞典、加蓬、巴西、丹麦、新西兰、智利、澳大利亚、英国、阿根廷、冰岛、委内瑞拉、马耳他、比利时、中国香港、新加坡 | 32 |
Table 2 Test of dynamic panel model表 2 动态面板模型设定形式检验结果 |
F检验 | Hausman检验 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F值 | 临界值 | 结论 | H值 | 临界值 | 结论 | |
全部样本 | 170.49 | 1.39 | 固定效应 | 157.87 | 9.488 | 固定效应 |
G1 | 55.85 | 5.63 | 固定效应 | 223.40 | 9.488 | 固定效应 |
G2 | 163.99 | 1.62 | 固定效应 | 80.94 | 9.488 | 固定效应 |
G3 | 415.38 | 1.88 | 固定效应 | 23.45 | 9.488 | 固定效应 |
注:F检验和Hausman检验均在5%显著性水平。 |
Table 3 Estimation of dynamic panel model表3 动态面板模型估计结果 |
全部样本系数 | G1系数 | G2系数 | G3系数 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
lnP | 1.220*** | 2.871*** | 1.260*** | 1.107*** |
(10.190) | (5.806) | (7.173) | (8.064) | |
lnU | 1.684*** | 0.407 | 1.596*** | 1.128*** |
(8.376) | (0.565) | (6.335) | (2.956) | |
lnA | 0.123*** | 0.117** | 0.130*** | 0.120*** |
(12.684) | (2.412) | (8.559) | (9.621) | |
lnE | -0.519*** | -0.337* | -0.458*** | -0.594*** |
(-17.944) | (-1.843) | (-10.749) | (-15.320) | |
常数项 | -16.607*** | -43.420*** | -17.337*** | -11.774*** |
(-11.375) | (-6.115) | (-7.089) | (-7.167) | |
AR(1) | 0.874*** | 0.853*** | 0.878*** | 0.817*** |
(98.458) | (22.409) | (71.959) | (47.312) | |
调整后R2 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.999 | 0.998 |
F值 | 40 145.20 | 27 834.98 | 29 844.24 | 43 105.90 |
DW值 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 2.06 | 2.11 |
注:***表示在1%水平下显著,**表示在5%水平下显著,*表示在10%水平下显著,括号里为t值。 |
Fig. 1 Scatter plot of CO2 and urbanization of 76 countries (regions), lower-urbanization countries (regions), middle-urbanization countries (regions), and upper-urbanization countries (regions) in 1980-2007图1 1980~2007年全部样本、G1、G2、G3城市化与碳排放散点图 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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