近50年人类活动引起的杭嘉湖平原区水位变化
作者简介:徐光来(1978-),男,安徽无为人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为水文学与水资源。E-mail: guanglaixu@yahoo.com.cn
收稿日期: 2011-09-08
要求修回日期: 2011-12-25
网络出版日期: 2012-10-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635)和水利部公益项目(201201072,200901042)资助
Changes of Water Level Induced by Human Activities at Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain in Recent 50 Years
Received date: 2011-09-08
Request revised date: 2011-12-25
Online published: 2012-10-20
Copyright
针对杭嘉湖地区洪涝灾害日益加剧的现状,基于1960~2007年日降水和日水位资料,采用Spearman检验、有序聚类分析和线性模拟方法,研究了近50 a来降水和水位变化,在此基础上探讨了降水和人类活动对特征水位变化的贡献率。结果表明,区域近50 a降水变化未见明显趋势,水位呈增加趋势,年最高水位、年平均水位和年最低水位增率分别为0.03 m/10a、0.05 m/10a和0.09 m/10a,且平均水位和最低水位增加达到显著性水平。8个代表站点特征水位均呈增加趋势。空间上沿水流方向,线性坡度值增大。水位降水响应率和平水年水位序列分析显示人类活动是水位变化的重要原因。人类活动对最高水位、平均水位和最低水位变化的贡献值分别为39.0%、56.2%和82.9%。
徐光来 , 许有鹏 , 罗贤 , 尹义星 . 近50年人类活动引起的杭嘉湖平原区水位变化[J]. 地理科学, 2012 , 32(10) : 1262 -1268 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.010.1262
With the gradually increased flooding on the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain, this paper analyses the problems involved in the changes of water levels of the hydrological system of this region. As one of the most developed regions in China, the plain is undergoing fierce urbanization process. Based on the daily precipitation and water level data from 1960 to 2007 of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain, the changes of precipitation and water level time series were analyzed by using linear-regression method, Spearman test, and orderly clustering analysis. Then the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities on water level changes were assessed by normal precipitation years and linear simulation methods. The results showed that the trend of precipitation of regions was no significant, while the water level of the regions was increased. Annual highest, average and lowest water level of the region were increased by 0.03 m/10a,0.05 m/10a and 0.09 m/10a, respectively. And the increase of average and lowest water level of the region reached the significant level. Moreover, the time series of water levels of eight representative hydrologic stations were analyzed. The results showed that most of the water levels of representative hydrologic stations were increased. The trend of all annual lowest water level series was significant, and trend of annual average and highest water level in some stations were significant by Spearman test. In space, along the flow direction, linear trend value of the time series were increased by Kriging interpolation. At last, the reasons for the changes of water level were evaluated. The highest, average and lowest annual water level of the region in normal precipitation years before and after the cut-point were increased by 10.67%, 8.17% and 42.95% respectively, while the precipitation was decreased by -1.06%. The contribution rate of human activities on the changes of the highest, average and lowest water level were 39.0%, 56.2% and 82.9% respectively. Human activities were the important cause to water level changes, particularly, to annual lowest water level. The results of this paper will be helpful for the water resources management of the urbanizing plain river network region and sustainable development of society and economy under the changing environment.
Fig.1 Sketch map of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain图1 杭嘉湖平原河网示意图 |
Table 1 Correlation between precipitation in region and the selected stations表1 杭嘉湖地区年平均降水和汛期平均降水与各站降水的相关性 |
王江泾 | 硖石 | 菱湖 | 乌镇 | 杭长桥 | 崇德 | 嘉兴 | 闸口 | 平湖 | 嘉善 | 盐官 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年平均降水 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 0.87 |
汛期平均降水 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.87 | 0.85 |
Fig.2 Annual and flood season precipitation of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou plain图2 杭嘉湖地区1960~2007年降水和汛期降水 |
Fig.3 The linear trend and ordered cluster analysis of water level series of Hangzhou-Jixaxing-Huzhou region in 1960 -2007图3 杭嘉湖水位序列聚类分析及线性趋势(a,d:最高水位;b,e:平均水位c,f:最低水位) |
Table 2 Statistics analyses of water level series of represent stations表2 代表站点水位序列分析 |
站点 | 序列 | 特征 | 平均值 | Cv | 线性倾向 | Spearman检验 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
长度 | 水位 | (m) | 坡度(m/10a) | p | |Z| | 趋势性 | ||
拱宸桥 | 1955~2007年 | 最高 | 2.53 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.29 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.67 | 0.35 | 不显著 | ||
最低 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 0.002 | 3.19 | 显著 | ||
塘栖 | 1955~2007年 | 最高 | 2.39 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 0.09 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.23 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 1.45 | 不显著 | ||
最低 | 0.66 | 0.30 | 0.08 | <0.001 | 4.5 | 显著 | ||
王江泾 | 1955~2007年 | 最高 | 1.78 | 0.23 | 0.13 | <0.001 | 3.55 | 显著 |
平均 | 1.07 | 0.20 | 0.10 | <0.001 | 5.23 | 显著 | ||
最低 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.09 | <0.001 | 5.59 | 显著 | ||
菱湖 | 1960~2007年 | 最高 | 2.27 | 0.23 | -0.01 | 0.92 | 0.37 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.24 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 1.18 | 不显著 | ||
最低 | 0.74 | 0.21 | 0.06 | <0.001 | 3.78 | 显著 | ||
乌镇 | 1960~2007年 | 最高 | 2.11 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1.25 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.21 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 0.001 | 3.04 | 显著 | ||
最低 | 0.74 | 0.34 | 0.11 | <0.001 | 4.67 | 显著 | ||
三里桥 | 1971~2007年 | 最高 | 2.15 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 0.07 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.26 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.96 | 不显著 | ||
最低 | 0.76 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 0.004 | 2.72 | 显著 | ||
新塍 | 1966~2007年 | 最高 | 1.84 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1.37 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.03 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 2.42 | 显著 | ||
最低 | 0.6 | 0.23 | 0.07 | <0.001 | 3.79 | 显著 | ||
双林 | 1968~2007年 | 最高 | 2.08 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.53 | 不显著 |
平均 | 1.18 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1.21 | 不显著 | ||
最低 | 0.71 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.001 | 3.03 | 显著 |
Fig.4 Spatial distribution of the linear slope (m/10a) of highest (a), average (b) and lowest(c) waterlevel of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region from 1960 to 2007 图4 杭嘉湖地区1960~2007年最高水位(a)、平均水位(b)和最低水位(c)序列线性坡度(m/10a)空间分布 |
Table 3 Changes of precipitation-water level in normal precipitation years of Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou region in 1960-2007表3 杭嘉湖地区1960~2007年平水年降水-水位变化 |
1960~1982 平均 | 1983~2007 平均 | 增加 | 增幅 (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
年降水(mm) | 1210.54 | 1197.73 | -12.82 | -1.06 |
最高水位(m) | 2.16 | 2.39 | 0.23 | 10.67 |
年均水位(m) | 1.12 | 1.21 | 0.09 | 8.17 |
最低水位(m) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.23 | 42.95 |
Fig.5 Linear regression of precipitation and annual highest (a), average (b) and lowest(c) water level图5 杭嘉湖地区年降水与特征水位线性回归(a最高水位;b平均水位;c最低水位) |
Table 4 Contribution rates of precipitation and human activities on water level表4 人类活动和降水因素对水位变化的贡献 |
基准期 HO (m) | 活动期 HA (m) | HHP (m) | ΔHT (m) | ΔHH | ΔHP | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
量(m) | 比例(%) | 量(m) | 比例(%) | |||||
最高水位 | 2.06 | 2.33 | 2.22 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 39.0 | 0.17 | 61.0 |
平均水位 | 1.08 | 1.26 | 1.16 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 56.2 | 0.08 | 43.8 |
最低水位 | 0.52 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 82.9 | 0.05 | 17.1 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
[1] |
|
[2] |
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
浙江省统计局. 2008浙江统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社,2008.
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
《1999年太湖流域洪水》编委会. 1999年太湖流域洪水[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2000:49~50.
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |