基于水文效应的城市增长边界的确定——以镇江新民洲为例
作者简介:徐 康(1989-)男,江苏连云港人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为区域发展与土地资源管理。E-mail:xk89_tnju@163.com
收稿日期: 2012-07-13
要求修回日期: 2013-01-22
网络出版日期: 2013-08-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金(41001047)资助
The Urban Growth Boundary Determination Based on Hydrology Effect: Taking Xinminzhou as An Example
Received date: 2012-07-13
Request revised date: 2013-01-22
Online published: 2013-08-20
Copyright
城市增长边界(UGB)是城市增长管理、控制城市无序蔓延的重要工具,但如何科学定量划定城市增长边界一直是一个技术难题。针对目前城市增长边界定量划定研究的不足,提出一种基于城市水文效应,适用于城市内涝易发区的城市增长边界划定方法。该方法整合了元胞自动机(CA)模型与区域水文模型(SCS),通过CA模型预测城市不透水面积的扩张范围与形态,并以此作为城市水文模型的参数,评估城市淹水面积的比例及风险,最后根据风险水平确定城市增长边界。以镇江新民洲为例,实证研究了该地区的城市增长边界的合理划定,研究发现该区域城市扩张规模控制500 hm2之内,城市在最大降雨条件下城市积水面积的风险水平能有效降低。研究结果可为新民洲的水文风险控制及城市规划提供依据,同时可为其他城市增长边界划定提供方法参考。
徐康
,
吴绍华
,
陈东湘
,
戴靓
,
周生路
. 基于水文效应的城市增长边界的确定——以镇江新民洲为例[J]. 地理科学, 2013
, 33(8)
: 979
-985
.
DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.08.979
Urban growth boundary (UGB) is an important tool to manage urban growth and control cities sprawl, but how to identify scientifically the urban growth boundary for a city has always been a technical problem. In order to address this issue, this article developed an approach to determine the urban growth boundary based on the hydrological risk. This method combines the Cellular Automata Model (CA ) and Soil Conservation Service Model(SCS). CA model is used to simulate the city expansion in different scenarios. Impervious area is extracted from CA simulation results, which is as the key parameters of the SCS model. the SCS model is use to assess the inudation area and hydrological risk. Finally, urban growth boundary is determined based on controlling hydrological risk in certain scale. This research took Xinminzhou, Zhenjiang City as an example to identify the urban growth boundary. The results showed that the inundation area was up 15%, 28%, 43%, 56% and 62% of total area respectively, when the city simulated in different scenarios of 184 hm2, 300 hm2, 405 hm2, 494 hm2 and 572 hm2. Under the probable maximum precipitation, in order to reduce inundation risk in the city, It was suggested that the urban should be controlled within 500 hm2 based on comprehensive analysis. The approach integrating the CA and SCS model provides an useful tool to determine UGB, and decision-making on hydrological risk control and urban planning.
Key words: urban growth boundary; CA model; SCS model; urban land use
Fig.1 Location of Xinminzhou area图1 新民洲地理位置 |
Fig.2 Technical routine图2 研究技术路线 |
Table 1 Risk evaluation of floods表1 涝灾风险评估 |
城市积水比例 | 涝灾风险水平 | 城市增长风险边界 | |
---|---|---|---|
最大降雨量 条件下 200 mm/d | 25%以下 | 涝灾风险低 | 低风险边界 |
25%~50% | 涝灾风险中等 | 中等风险边界 | |
50%以上 | 涝灾风险高 | 高风险边界 |
Fig.3 Urban area simulation in Xinminzhou with different threshold value (2020)图3 不同转换概率阈值下的新民洲城市用地模拟(2020年) |
Fig.4 Flooded area simulation in the different development scales of Xinminzhou图4 不同城市开发规模下的强降水淹水区域模拟 |
Table 2 The risk evaluation of floods in different development scenarios表2 不同开发情景下涝灾风险评估 |
情景 | 城市用地 规模(hm2) | 区域平均径流深度(mm) | 积水面积 (%) | 涝灾风险 水平 | 城市增长风险边界 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
现状 | 90 | 125 | 10% | 风险低 | 低风险边界 |
低开发规模 | 184 | 132 | 15% | ||
中低开发规模 | 300 | 135 | 28% | 风险中 | 中等风险边界 |
中等开发规模 | 405 | 142 | 43% | ||
中高开发规模 | 494 | 146 | 56% | 风险高 | 高风险边界 |
高开发规模 | 572 | 149 | 62% |
Fig.5 Boundary demarcation at different urban growth based on waterlog risk图5 基于城市内涝风险角度的城市增长边界的划定 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
[1] |
|
[2] |
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
SCS.National Engineering Handbook[S].US Department of Agriculture,Washington DC,1956
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
|
[19] |
|
[20] |
|
[21] |
|
[22] |
|
[23] |
|
[24] |
|
[25] |
|
[26] |
|
[27] |
|
[28] |
|
[29] |
|
[30] |
|
[31] |
|
[32] |
|
[33] |
|
[34] |
|
[35] |
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |